Hook - short version
If your objective is yield and you’re looking at Annaly’s preferreds, don’t reflexively buy the highest coupon. There’s one place in Annaly’s capital structure that balances payout coverage, book-value cushion and call/interest-rate risk better than the rest. For most retail investors that trade looks like buying the common as a practical entry point while selectively sizing any preferred exposure after confirming market prices and call mechanics.
Thesis
Annaly’s operating engine produced a large net income print in Q3 2025 (net income: $843.1m for the quarter ended 09/30/2025), and the board is distributing an attractive quarterly common dividend of $0.70 (declared 12/10/2025, ex-dividend 12/31/2025, pay 01/30/2026). At a recent reference close around $24.40, that common dividend annualizes to ~$2.80 and implies a cash yield of roughly 11.5%. But high headline yield alone is not an investment plan - the right trade considers dividend coverage, balance-sheet cushion and capital-structure seniority. After weighing those elements I prefer a targeted long in the common (as a proxy) while selectively adding the single preferred series that offers meaningful call protection and an attractive spread to the common yield. In practice, because preferred-market detail wasn’t available here, the actionable trade below uses the common to capture the income story while you hunt the preferred you like.
What Annaly does and why it matters
Annaly is a mortgage REIT that primarily earns through Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other mortgage credit strategies. The company’s reportable segments list the Agency segment as the largest revenue generator. Agency MBS capture rate and financed spread are the fundamental drivers - when funding costs fall relative to the yield on Agency MBS, Annaly earns net interest spread, which flows to earnings and dividends.
Why the market should care now
- Q3 2025 operating performance: Interest and dividend income (operating) of $1.532b for the quarter and net income of $843.1m (quarter ended 09/30/2025, filed 10/30/2025) show the business can generate sizable earnings in the current rate environment.
- Dividend consistency: management declared a quarterly common dividend of $0.70 (declaration 12/10/2025, pay 01/30/2026). That follows earlier quarters at $0.65, so the cash payout has not been cut and has in fact moved up in 2025.
- Capital cushion: assets of $125.86b vs liabilities of $110.86b leave equity of roughly $14.91b (equity attributable to parent). That implies an equity/assets ratio near 11.8% - a measurable cushion against mark-to-market volatility, albeit one that still reflects high leverage typical of mREITs.
Key finance facts (from the company filings)
Quarter ended 09/30/2025 (filed 10/30/2025):
- Net income: $843,063,000
- Diluted EPS: $1.20 (quarter)
- Preferred stock dividends and other adjustments (quarter): $41,127,000
- Assets: $125,861,572,000; Liabilities: $110,864,993,000; Equity: $14,996,579,000 (total equity)
Crucially, the company’s preferred dividend line is visible in the filings and amounts to a modest fraction of quarterly earnings, which supports the argument some common payout is covered by current income.
Valuation framing
Use simple, conservative metrics: book value per share and cash yield on the declared dividend. Equity attributable to parent is $14.9109b and diluted average shares in Q3 2025 are ~657.9m. That implies a book value (equity / diluted shares) of roughly $22.65 per share. With the most recent reference close around $24.40, the stock trades at roughly 1.08x book.
On payout coverage: diluted EPS for Q3 2025 was $1.20 and the quarterly common dividend is $0.70. On a quarter-by-quarter basis the payout represents ~58% of that quarter’s diluted EPS. That is not the same as an annual payout ratio, but it is useful: the current quarterly cash payout is covered by recent earnings in the quarter where the company reported strong core and nonoperating gains.
Qualitatively, preferreds typically sit above common in the capital structure and can carry call risk or varying degrees of cumulative/dividend terms. Without contemporaneous market quotes for each preferred series it’s hard to directly compare numeric yields here. The common’s >11% implied yield at ~$24.40 is a useful baseline: any preferred you buy should meaningfully beat that baseline on a risk-adjusted basis after accounting for call/cumulative features and liquidity.
Catalysts (what could move this trade)
- Fed easing or lower short-term funding costs - narrows funding/MBS spread and supports higher net interest income for mREITs.
- Tightening of Agency MBS spreads - increases mark-to-market and nonoperating gains.
- Management action to repurchase securities or preferred redemptions that are value-accretive to common shareholders.
- Continued dividend stability or increases - management has been consistent with quarterly $0.70 in 2025.
Trade idea - actionable plan (I: tactical, practical)
Because preferred details are not in the immediate price feed here and preferred series vary by call/cumulative terms, use the common as a practical, liquid proxy to position for the income story while you size into a preferred series after quoting market prices and call protection. My trade:
- Direction: Long NLY common
- Entry: $23.80 - $24.60 (average in the band). Rationale: recent trade near $24.40; use a small ladder to mitigate intraday noise.
- Initial Size: 50% of target allocation at first fill, add second half on a pullback to $22.50 - $23.00 or after preferred-series price verification.
- Stop: $22.00 (roughly 10% below $24.40). A break below $22 would take the price below ~0.97x my computed book and signal either a macro shock or a dividend-confidence event.
- Targets:
- Target 1 (near-term, 2-4 months): $27.00 - take partial profits ( ~10% from mid-entry).
- Target 2 (position, 6-12 months): $30.00 - full profit or roll into a preferred series if available at better spread.
- Time horizon: Position (3-12 months). Expect yield carry while waiting for appreciation.
- Risk level: High - mREITs are rate-sensitive and levered.
Why this makes sense operationally: at $24.40 the implied common yield (~11.5%) is already high; the Q3 2025 earnings print and book value per share (~$22.65) give a modest margin of safety. Buying the common buys you liquidity and immediate cash yield while you shop preferred-series mechanics and prices.
Counterargument
Argument: preferreds should be the obvious purchase - they’re senior, often cumulative, and typically pay fixed coupons that can outpace common yield with less upside volatility. That can be true. My response: yes, preferreds can be a cleaner income instrument. But not all preferreds are equal - call risk and short first-call dates can rapidly compress yields if the issuer redeems or refinances. Because preferred-market prices and call terms were not available in the immediate feed, the common is the pragmatic way to capture the yield and participate in upside while you verify the preferred series that actually provides superior risk-adjusted return. If you can confirm a preferred with a demonstrably higher yield, long first-call and cumulative features at a sensible price, that would be preferable to the common and I would shift the trade accordingly.
Risks - at least four, with balance
- Interest-rate risk - mREITs earn via spread. A sustained rise in short-term rates (or a shallowening of the funding curve vs MBS yields) compresses net interest income and the common/pref valuations.
- Mark-to-market volatility - agency MBS positions are marked frequently; a spike in spreads can create large non-cash losses that pressure book value and the dividend policy.
- Dividend cut risk - while current dividends are covered by recent quarterly earnings, a sustained adverse rate move or large realized losses could force management to cut the common dividend.
- Leverage and liquidity risk - liabilities exceed $110.86b vs assets of ~$125.86b; the company is leveraged and sensitive to funding-market liquidity.
- Preferred-specific risks (if you reallocate): call risk (issuer redeems at unattractive prices), issuance-specific terms (non-cumulative, step-ups) and secondary-market illiquidity for some series.
- Macro/housing risk - while Agency securities are government guaranteed for principal, the relative value of MBS vs funding depends on broader macro and Fed policy.
What would change my mind
- I would pivot away from the common and into a preferred series immediately if I can verify a preferred that meets all three tests: materially higher yield than the common after adjusting for call risk, cumulative dividends, and a first call date far enough out to avoid near-term call compression.
- I would reduce exposure if future filings show a larger share issuance that dilutes book value materially or if management signals dividend vulnerability.
- I would become materially more bullish if the company announces a definitive capital-return program (preferred repurchases or buybacks) that is accretive to common book value.
Bottom line / Clear stance
Strategy’s preferreds deserve respect, but don’t buy the highest coupon blind. At present I recommend a tactical long in NLY common (entry $23.80 - $24.60, stop $22.00) as the most practical, liquid way to capture the attractive cash yield (~11.5% at $24.40) and participate in potential spread compression upside. Use the common fill as you confirm preferred-series market quotes and call/cumulative mechanics; shift into the preferred series only when its risk-adjusted yield (after call and liquidity adjustments) meaningfully beats the common and matches your income/term needs.
Trade summary (single line): Long NLY common, entry $23.80-$24.60, stop $22.00, targets $27 / $30, time horizon 3-12 months, risk high. Re-evaluate and potentially rotate to a preferred series if you can verify superior call-protected yield.
Disclosure: This is a trade idea based on recent financials and dividend action; it is not personalized investment advice. Size and risk tolerance should be tailored to your portfolio.