Hook - short thesis up front
Collective Mining (CNL) has moved from exploration laggard to momentum story on the back of multiple, high-quality drill releases at Guayabales and related targets in Caldas, Colombia. Recent industry headlines include step-out and discovery-style intercepts such as 106.35 metres at 9.05 g/t AuEq at Apollo and a 75.80 metre intersection at 8.01 g/t AuEq at the Ramp Zone (reported 03/12/2025 and 02/24/2025 respectively). Those results are the kind that change market perception: they convert a market that priced in speculative upside into one willing to pay for discovery optionality.
Price action reflects that shift. The stock traded in the low single digits earlier in the 12‑month period (low around $4.53 on one early session) and recently settled around $15.90 (prev day close 01/22/2026). That is a multi-fold move and sets up a tactical swing trade: buy a controlled size on either a small pullback or a breakout, lean on stops, and use upcoming assay/drill news as catalysts.
What the company does, and why the market should care
Collective Mining is an exploration and development company focused on large-scale copper-gold-molybdenum porphyry and high-grade gold-silver targets in the department of Caldas, Colombia. The company holds the Guayabales project (the focal point today) plus San Antonio. Guayabales is contiguous to the Marmato district - a location with established mineralization - and the company is aggressively drilling multiple targets (Ramp Zone, Apollo, Plutus and others).
Why the market should care: investors pay up for drill-defined scale and grade. The company's reported intersections include both stacked wide intervals and high-grade cores (for example: 497.35 metres at 3.01 g/t AuEq with 106.35 m at 9.05 g/t AuEq nested inside at Apollo; Ramp Zone hits include 75.80 m at 8.01 g/t AuEq and a later 50.50 m at 5.66 g/t Au). Those types of results have re-rated previously unknown projects into serious exploration propositions, and in a jurisdiction that the company describes as mining-friendly, the optionality to define a district-scale porphyry-epithermal system is real.
Supporting numbers from company releases and market data
- Best-reported intersections cited: 106.35 m at 9.05 g/t AuEq within a larger 497.35 m at 3.01 g/t AuEq (Apollo) - 02/24/2025.
- Ramp Zone step outs: 75.80 m at 8.01 g/t AuEq (03/12/2025) and a 200-metre strike extension with 50.50 m at 5.66 g/t Au and 13 g/t Ag (10/01/2025).
- Financing activity: several small private placements in 2025 (including a closing for CDN$262,099.98 on 08/15/2025) indicate management is topping up exploration funding from non-dilutive or structured sources - but also that funding is incremental rather than transformative.
- Recent price action: the stock printed a low in the single digits earlier in the 12‑month window (example low around $4.53) and was trading around $15.90 on 01/22/2026 (prev day close: o $16.70 h $16.82 l $15.74 c $15.90 v 96,069, vw $16.1061). The magnitude of the move suggests momentum is a real component of current performance.
Valuation framing - qualitative
There is no usable public market cap or listed peer set in the dataset to make a neat market-multiple comparison. That is typical for early-stage exploration companies: valuation is driven by drill results, permit progress and financing cadence rather than steady revenues or operating cash flow. Given that, valuation must be activity-driven: market is implicitly paying an exploration premium for discovery potential in Caldas. The stock's run from ~$4.50 to ~$15.90 is consistent with an expectation that the company will continue releasing materially positive assay results that expand the known mineralized envelope.
Put another way: you're buying optionality. If future rounds of drilling build on the 2024-25 intercepts and expand strike length and continuity, valuation re-rates are plausible. If the follow-up drilling proves discontinuous, the re-rating is at risk. Because of that binary nature, conservative position-sizing and clear stops are essential.
Trade idea - actionable plan
Trade direction: Long. Time horizon: swing (4-12 weeks). Risk level: High.
Two practical ways to structure the trade depending on your risk tolerance:
- Conservative entry (preferred): Buy on a pullback to $14.00 - $14.50. Set an initial stop at $12.00 (roughly -15% from $14.00) to limit downside if momentum fades. Targets: partial profit at $18.50 (near prior short-term highs and psychological resistance) and a higher target of $24.00 for a more aggressive leg if catalysts continue to print positive assays. Rationale: waits for mean reversion and reduces the chance of buying a short-term exhaustion move.
- Aggressive entry: Enter on strength above $16.80 (a clear day-to-day breakout above the recent intraday high). Set a stop at $14.50 (backstop if breakout fails). Targets: $22.00 first, then $30.00 if the company prints a materially larger discovery or a resource announcement. Rationale: capture momentum continuation; tighter time horizon and higher risk.
Position sizing guidance: limit any single position to low single-digit percent of portfolio (1-3% of total capital) given exploration binary risk and the potential for significant volatility. Consider scaling in: start with half the planned position at entry and add on confirmation (follow-up assays or a successful drill hole that extends strike/to depth).
Key catalysts to watch (near-term)
- Ongoing assay releases from Guayabales targets (Apollo, Ramp Zone, Plutus) - these have historically been market-moving (recent notable releases dated 02/24/2025 and 03/12/2025).
- Step-out drill results that expand strike length - the company announced a 200-metre strike extension at Ramp Zone on 10/01/2025; further strike extensions are high-impact.
- Any resource drill campaign initiation or maiden resource disclosure - a resource estimate would materially change the risk profile.
- Financing or strategic partnership announcements - even modest private placements have funded continued drilling (08/15/2025 placement noted), but a JV with a major or a larger placement would derisk financing and could re-rate the stock.
Risks and counterarguments
Exploration names come with a heavy tail of downside. Below are key risks to the bullish case and a balanced counterargument.
- Assay continuity risk: Early high-grade intersections are encouraging, but the economic case depends on continuity - both along strike and at depth. If follow-up holes fail to demonstrate continuity, the market can punish valuation rapidly.
- Financing and dilution: The company has used private placements to fund drilling (e.g., CDN$262,099.98 on 08/15/2025). If management needs larger-scale dilution to sustain an expanded drill program, that will pressure the stock even with good results.
- Jurisdiction and permitting risk: Colombia is generally described here as mining-friendly in the company material, but permitting, community relations and ESG factors can delay timelines or complicate development.
- Binary newsflow: Price sensitivity around each assay release is extreme. A single disappointing hole can erase weeks of gains (histor behavior across explorers). Position sizing must reflect that volatility.
- Macro/commodity risk: A correction in gold/copper sentiment would lower appetite for exploration names, compressing multiples or stalling financing.
Counterargument: The market has already priced much of the discovery optionality into the share price. The run from ~$4.50 to ~$15.90 suggests expectations are high, and while follow-up assays have been positive, the next round must show scale and continuity. Buying now risks paying up for announcements that are already anticipated.
What would change my mind
I would materially reduce conviction if:
- Follow-up drilling shows narrow, isolated veins rather than broad, continuous mineralization - that would break the scale narrative.
- Management announces larger-than-expected financing at dilutive terms or delays in permits/permit rejections that push timelines out beyond the market's tolerance.
- A major strategic partner or JV is announced that materially de-risks funding and adds technical validation - that would increase conviction in the opposite direction (positive change).
Bottom line and stance
I am constructively long-biased on Collective Mining from a tactical, risk-managed perspective. The company has reported multiple, market-moving drill intersections (examples cited above), and those results justify a small, event-driven allocation for disciplined traders who accept binary exploration risk. Use the conservative entry/pullback plan if you are capital-preservation oriented. If you are momentum oriented and can tolerate higher volatility, the breakout plan can capture further re-rating while maintaining explicit stops.
Keep position sizes small, monitor assays closely, and be prepared to trim into strength. The story is drill-driven - positive continuity and resource-style answers will be the ultimate determinant of sustained outperformance.
Disclosure: This is not investment advice. This note is a trade idea based on public drill releases and price action; do your own due diligence and size positions consistent with your risk tolerance.