Hook - Kaspi started as a payments and P2P story, but the sustainable growth lever today is m-commerce inside its Super App. The headline controversies and legal notices that surfaced in early 2025 created headline risk; that’s real and should be watched. But the more durable, investable shift is the monetization of marketplace and merchant payments on mobile, which has higher take-rates and stickier cohorts than P2P alone.
Thesis - Buy Kaspi (KSPI) on a tactical basis as a swing/position trade: the market currently prices the company closer to the cyclical P2P narrative while overlooking accelerating m-commerce economics and recurring capital returns. The ADS last traded at $78.98 (most recent trade) with a daily range today around $78.75 - $79.97 and visible liquidity (recent daily volumes in the hundreds of thousands).
What the business is and why it matters
Kaspi is a horizontally integrated Super App in Kazakhstan combining a Payments Platform (digital transactions and P2P rails), a Marketplace Platform (m-commerce connecting merchants to consumers), and a Fintech Platform (deposits, consumer finance and other financial products). The core point: Payments get users into the app, but marketplace commerce is where higher gross merchandise volume (GMV), fulfillment, and merchant fees live — and those are the higher-margin, recurring revenue drivers over time.
Why the market should care: m-commerce scales take-rates and gives Kaspi control over conversion funnels (search, onboarding, transactions, fulfillment). That means higher lifetime value for each user than pure payments, because purchasers generate repeat orders, cross-sell to credit/deposit products, and raise marketplace monetization per active user. Kaspi's public filings and commentary (company description) frame the group as payment + marketplace + fintech — the logical evolution for Super Apps is to tilt revenue mix toward commerce and finance rather than low-margin P2P flows.
What the tape is saying
The ADS has moved from intraday highs above $110 in late 2023/early 2024 to the high $70s today; the most recent daily close sits at $78.98. Trading has shown bouts of heavy volume historically (one daily print in the dataset shows >2.2M shares traded on a single day) and many weekly ranges indicating investor rotation. The dataset also records multiple cash dividend payments in 2024 (see below), which implies substantial free cash return to holders if repeated.
Concrete datapoints from the record
- Last trade price: $78.98 (most recent recorded trade).
- Today’s day range (snapshot): low $78.745, high $79.97; today's change +0.25% (~+$0.20).
- Dividends recorded in 2024 in the dataset: $1.900954 (pay 04/19/2024), $1.918641 (pay 05/31/2024), $1.771745 (pay 08/28/2024), $1.71377 (pay 11/26/2024). Summed, that is ~$7.31 per ADS across those payments.
- Recent corporate activity that matters: an issuance of USD-denominated Eurobonds (03/21/2025) and an announced acquisition update (Rabobank acquisition update on 11/28/2025).
Quick math on yield: If the ~$7.31 in discrete 2024 payments were roughly repeatable, at a $79 price that implies a simple cash yield in the high single digits (~9.3%). I am not asserting this is a recurring, guaranteed annual payout — but the documented cash returned in the dataset is large enough to materially affect total return expectations if the company sustains distributions.
Why m-commerce matters more than P2P
From a unit-economics lens: P2P is volume-driven with low or zero take-rate; marketplaces capture commissions, fulfillment fees, advertising, and generate incremental payments and credit cross-sell. For a Super App, each dollar of GMV on the marketplace converts into multiple monetization paths (merchant fees, logistics, in-app advertising, finance products), whereas P2P primarily drives retention without matching commerce margins.
Operationally, look for the following signs (not all available in the dataset): accelerating orders per buyer, rising take-rate, and growth in ‘merchant-paid’ revenue. Absent fresh financial line-item data in the dataset, the proof will come from management commentary and subsequent reported quarters. In the meantime, the market is under-discounting the structural shift — price has retraced from >$100 to ~$79 while the company continues to return cash and pursue corporate development (Eurobond, acquisitions).
Valuation framing
The dataset does not include market capitalization, shares outstanding, or detailed P&L/GMV numbers, so valuation comparisons are necessarily qualitative. The share price retreat from the $100+ band to the high $70s argues the market is applying a punitive multiple — likely driven by legal headlines and macro/FX concerns — rather than paying up for steady m-commerce growth.
Two rough reference points from the dataset to guide thinking:
- Recent ADS trading level: ~$79 today; historical intraday peaks in the dataset reached ~111, implying a >40% drawdown from those peaks.
- Documented cash dividends in 2024 totaled ~ $7.31 per ADS in discrete payments, which, if sustained, materially improves total-return expectations relative to price alone.
Given missing formal multiples or comparable peers in the dataset, the trade is best described as a tactical value/recovery play around structural monetization, not a precise multiple arbitrage call.
Catalysts (what will move the stock)
- Quarterly disclosures that show rising marketplace GMV, improving take-rate, or increasing average revenue per consumer (hard evidence that m-commerce is taking share of revenue).
- Corporate development events: successful integration or positive regulatory update on the Rabobank acquisition (11/28/2025 item in the record) or other announced M&A that expands merchant reach.
- Debt markets reception to the Eurobond (03/21/2025): favorable refinancing and clear use of proceeds to grow merchant services or logistics could reduce funding uncertainty.
- Confirmation of recurring capital returns (repeatable dividends or buybacks) in future announcements, which would raise baseline return assumptions for investors.
TRADE IDEA - Actionable plan
Trade direction: Long KSPI (ADS). Time horizon: Position (3-12 months). Risk level: High (headline/legal risk + EM exposure).
Entry: $76 - $80 zone (current prints are $78.98; buy the dip closer to $76 if intraday weakness appears). Start with a base position equal to 1/2 your planned allocation and scale up to full size if the price holds $72-$76.
Stop: Initial stop at $68 (roughly 13-15% below entry if buying near $78) — tighten to $73 if price moves above $86.
Targets:
- Near-term target (cover/trim): $95 (about 20% from current $79) if management confirms m-commerce traction or dividends remain intact.
- Extended target: $115 (roughly previous high range) on a full recovery + positive M&A or a reaffirmed multi-year growth outlook.
Position sizing note: Given event risk (class-action headlines and potential geopolitical/regulatory overhang), limit initial sizing to 2-4% of portfolio capital for a tactical position and treat this as a trade rather than a core buy until you see recurring fundamental confirmation.
Risks and counterarguments
Counterargument: The market is rightly cautious. P2P and payments stickiness can compress if users change behavior, and legal / regulatory issues can sap investor confidence and constrain cross-border business. If m-commerce improvements are incremental instead of structural, Kaspi may remain a low multiple payments story — not a high-growth commerce story.
Key risks to monitor
- Legal & investor-relations risk: multiple securities class action notices appear in early 02/2025 in the record. Litigation and attendant disclosures can be distracting, costly, and keep institutional buyers sidelined.
- Geopolitical / sanctions risk and regulatory oversight in the region - any change in cross-border capital treatment or sanctions exposure would materially depress investor confidence and access to capital.
- Execution risk on merchant monetization: marketplace scaling requires reliable logistics, merchant onboarding, and fraud controls. Underperformance on conversions or higher merchant churn would hurt the take-rate thesis.
- Funding / capital structure risk: the Eurobond issuance (03/21/2025) helps, but adverse credit markets or higher yields could raise funding costs and limit expansion investments.
- Dividend sustainability risk: the dataset shows large 2024 cash payments (~$7.31 total), but if those are non-recurring special distributions, relying on them for yield would be a mistake.
What would change my mind
I would materially change the bullish stance if any of the following occur:
- Quarterly results show declining marketplace GMV or a falling take-rate for two consecutive quarters, indicating m-commerce has stalled.
- Material adverse rulings or significant new revelations in securities litigation that create a credible pathway to large remediation costs or governance remediation.
- Debt markets turn unfriendly and the company signals liquidity stress — e.g., covenant breaches or inability to roll short-term commercial facilities.
Conclusion
Kaspi sits at the intersection of payments, marketplace commerce, and fintech. The market is focused on the noisy P2P/payments angle and legal headlines; I think the more durable story is m-commerce monetization inside the Super App. That shift expands monetization per user, raises take-rates, and creates recurring cross-sell opportunities for credit and deposits. The tactical trade suggested above buys the discounted price while keeping sensible stops and position sizing to manage the heightened event risk.
Monitor upcoming quarterly disclosures, management commentary on marketplace metrics, Eurobond refinancing details (03/21/2025), and any concrete outcomes from the Rabobank acquisition update (11/28/2025) or litigation developments. If the company demonstrates improving marketplace economics and keeps returning cash, the current price offers an asymmetric entry with clear stop logic.
Key datapoints & timeline references
- Most recent trade price: $78.98 (last trade recorded).
- Dividends recorded: $1.900954 (pay 04/19/2024), $1.918641 (pay 05/31/2024), $1.771745 (pay 08/28/2024), $1.71377 (pay 11/26/2024) - sum ~$7.31.
- Eurobond issuance: 03/21/2025 (recorded).
- Rabobank acquisition update: 11/28/2025 (recorded).
- Class-action notices concentrated around 02/2025 (multiple filings recorded).
Disclosure: This is a trade idea and not investment advice. Do your own work and size positions according to your risk tolerance.