Hook & short thesis
L3Harris (LHX) closed the year on a steady note. The company reported Q3 (period ended 10/03/2025) revenue of $5.659 billion and operating income of $621 million, and continues to produce consistent free cash flow from operations. Those fundamentals — plus recurring defense wins (including a reported $2.26 billion South Korea air defense award) and an ongoing shareholder payout program — make the current setup attractive for a tactical long.
My view: upgrade to Buy. This is a trade idea for disciplined, time-boxed exposure: enter on small weakness or work a staged buy, hold for the next several weeks to months and manage with a firm stop. The company is not a fast-growth software story, but it has a strong backlog, margin resilience, and cash conversion that supports capital allocation (dividends + buybacks). That combination supports a constructive short-to-medium-term payoff with controlled downside.
What L3Harris does and why the market should care
L3Harris is a broad-based defense and aerospace systems contractor with franchises in radios, sensors, avionics, missiles, unmanned systems, space-based systems and training. The business benefits from: (1) long program life cycles and sticky backlog; (2) growing demand for integrated air and missile defense and C5ISR capabilities; and (3) a mix of products and services that produce recurring revenue and attractive operating cash flow.
Why investors care: the defense budget environment remains supportive for mid-to-large prime contractors, and L3Harris is a meaningful beneficiary. Recent material contract wins (including a $2.26B South Korea air defense award reported 10/20/2025) validate its competitive positioning in high-value systems and help de-risk revenue visibility for the next few years.
Recent financials and what matters
- Q3 (ended 10/03/2025) revenue: $5.659B; gross profit: $1.494B; operating income: $621M; net income attributable to parent: $462M; diluted EPS: $2.46.
- Q2 and Q1 showed similar top-line momentum: Q2 revenue $5.426B, Q1 revenue $5.132B. Using those four quarters (Q4 prior, Q1, Q2, Q3) gives an approximate TTM revenue of ~ $21.4B.
- Cash flow: operating cash flow in the quarter was $546M — the company is generating cash from operations and using a portion for financing (net cash flow from financing activities was -$560M in the latest quarter), consistent with dividends and buybacks.
- Balance sheet: as of the latest quarter total assets ≈ $41.0B and liabilities ≈ $21.48B, leaving equity attributable to parent ≈ $19.53B. The balance sheet supports both program commitments and shareholder returns without evident stress.
These numbers show a business that is mid-single-digit operating margin on large revenue and consistent cash conversion — a profile investors pay a modest premium for when defense demand is stable. Aggregating the last four quarters of net income (~$1.71B) and using diluted shares (~188.1M), trailing EPS is roughly $9.04 and the current price (~$293.57) implies a P/E in the low-30s.
Valuation framing
The dataset does not include a quoted market cap, but with ~188.1 million diluted shares and last trade ~ $293.57, estimated market cap is roughly $55B (293.57 * 188.1M ≈ $55.2B). Using estimated TTM revenue (~$21.4B) yields a price-to-sales of about 2.6x and a P/E ≈ 32x on trailing earnings (~$1.71B). Those multiples feel reasonable for a large defense prime with a steady margin profile and visible backlog, but they are not cheap — LHX is priced for continued program wins and stable margins.
Contextual logic: investors are paying a premium over cyclicals for predictability and growth from specific programs (air defense, missile systems, ISR). If the company continues to convert backlog to revenue and maintain margins, the current valuation is supportable; weakness in margins or program slippage would compress multiples quickly.
Catalysts (next 3-9 months)
- Quarterly results and forward guidance: any positive guidance or margin expansion at the next report will likely re-rate the multiple higher.
- Additional contract awards and backlog disclosures - wins like the South Korea air defense contract (reported 10/20/2025) materially improve visibility and can be re-rating events.
- Capital allocation updates: continued dividends (quarterly $1.20 declared, ex-dividend 11/17/2025) and buyback cadence that meaningfully reduces share count.
- Macro defense budget headlines or geopolitical developments that accelerate procurement of ISR and air defense systems.
Trade plan (actionable)
Trade direction: Long (tactical/swing to short-term position). Risk level: medium. Time horizon: swing (several weeks to a few months).
Entry: Buy in a staged manner between $285 and $300 (work a two-leg entry if you miss the first band).
Stop: $265 (hard stop) — ~9% below $293.6 reference.
Target 1 (near-term): $340 — a reasonable first profit-taking level (~16% upside from $293.6).
Target 2 (swing): $370 — captures a larger re-rating if the company posts continued wins and margin stability (~26% upside).
Position sizing: limit to a size where a drop to the stop is acceptable (risk per trade ≤ 2% of portfolio recommended).
Rationale: the entry band sits near recent intra-day support and lets you buy a defensible level while leaving upside capture. The stop at $265 protects against material deterioration in the thesis (program delays, margin shock). Targets are set where multiple expansion and renewed investor appetite could push valuation toward higher P/E or multiple expansion consistent with recent peaks.
Risks & counterarguments
- Program execution risk - Large defense programs carry schedule and cost risk. A slip or cost overrun on a material program could compress margins and the stock quickly (execution problems are the single largest near-term risk).
- Budget & political risk - Defense spending depends on political priorities and budget timing. A sustained shift in procurement priorities could reduce future awards or delay deliveries.
- Valuation vulnerability - At an implied ~32x P/E, the stock is sensitive to disappointment. If revenue growth slows or margins retract, multiples can compress and produce downside beyond the stop.
- Customer concentration and seasonality - A big portion of revenues are tied to government programs; contract timing and milestone recognition can introduce quarter-to-quarter volatility.
- Liquidity / macro risk - Large market swings, risk-off environments, or rising rates could weigh on defense multiple and lead to short-term share weakness even if fundamentals hold.
Counterargument (why someone may be right to avoid or short): The stock already prices in steady program wins. If you believe the macro or defense spending outlook will soften or that large program setbacks are likely, then the P/E and P/S multiples are too rich to justify a long. A conservative investor may prefer to wait for a deeper pullback below $260 or for clearer margin expansion evidence before buying.
Conclusion & what would change my mind
Conclusion: Upgrade to Buy and take a tactical long with a clearly defined entry band ($285-$300), a hard stop at $265, and layered targets at $340 and $370. The trade offers a balanced risk/reward: the business is cash-generative, winning meaningful contracts, and returning capital to shareholders — all of which justify a positive stance if execution remains steady.
What would change my view: I would downgrade if (1) the company reports persistent margin erosion or negative free cash flow from operations; (2) a material program is cancelled or substantially delayed; or (3) the balance sheet deteriorates (for example, meaningful incremental debt without commensurate cash flow improvement).
Stay disciplined: this is a trade, not a blind call. Use the stop, scale into the position, and monitor quarterly execution and contract announcements closely.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice. The trade plan is a suggested approach based on publicly available financials and recent company developments.