Hook & thesis
Newmont (NEM) is the easiest way to own a high-quality, diversified gold producer with a balance sheet and cash flow profile that most peers envy. Recent quarterly results show predictable operating cash flow and solid net income while the firm continues to return capital to shareholders via a reliable quarterly dividend. With spot gold surging into the headlines on 01/26/2026 and geopolitical uncertainty increasing demand for safe-haven assets, Newmont's earnings and free-cash-flow upside is not reflected in current equity prices—creating a tactical buying opportunity.
I believe NEM is a tactical long today. The operating business is resilient (Q3 2025 operating cash flow of $2.298B, revenues of $5.524B, net income $1.843B) and the balance sheet is conservative (assets $54.69B, equity $33.411B, long-term debt $5.18B as of 09/30/2025). Those fundamentals plus exposure to an appreciating gold price create asymmetric upside vs. downside if you size the position and use a hard stop.
What the business is and why it matters
Newmont is the world's largest gold miner. It consolidated scale through the Goldcorp purchase in 2019, merged Nevada operations with Barrick, and completed the Newcrest acquisition in November 2023. The company expects to sell roughly 5.6 million ounces of gold in 2025 from its core mines after portfolio pruning of higher-cost assets, and it also produces copper, silver, zinc and lead as byproducts. That combination of scale, diversified jurisdictions and by-product credits gives Newmont cost flexibility and high cash conversion when gold rallies.
Operationally the company converts sizable revenue into cash: the most recent quarter (07/01/2025-09/30/2025) reported revenues of $5.524B and net cash flow from operating activities of $2.298B. Across the first nine months of fiscal 2025, Newmont collected roughly $5.82B in net income (sum of Q1-Q3 line items), which demonstrates how profitable the business can be even before any full-year annualization.
Fundamentals in the numbers
- Revenue, Q3 FY2025 (09/30/2025): $5.524B.
- Operating income, Q3 FY2025: $2.576B; net income attributable to parent: $1.832B.
- Operating cash flow, Q3 FY2025: $2.298B.
- Balance sheet (09/30/2025): assets $54.69B, equity $33.411B, long-term debt $5.18B.
- Dividend cadence: quarterly $0.25 per share in 2024-2025 and maintained through 2025; recent payouts declared on 10/23/2025 and 07/24/2025 with pay dates into 2025-12/22/2025 and 09/29/2025 respectively.
Two points jump out: first, Newmont generates consistent free cash flow, and second, the company carries relatively modest net debt for a global mining giant. Financing activity in the quarter produced a net cash flow drag (net cash flow from financing activities was -$2.8B for Q3 FY2025), but that has to be seen in the context of shareholder returns and balance-sheet optimization post-acquisition.
Valuation framing - why the market is underpricing upside
The dataset does not include a market capitalization figure, but the current market snapshot shows a share price around $125.92 (last close). Rather than invent a multiple, focus on mechanics: Newmont's earnings and cash flow have grown meaningfully through 2024-2025, while leverage has come down relative to asset base. The company sold or is selling higher-cost small mines after Newcrest, which should improve consolidated margins and reduce exposure to higher operating costs.
Use two simple heuristics to think about valuation:
- Commodity leverage: gold price rallies drive large incremental margins for producers because most operating costs are fixed per ounce. News on 01/26/2026 shows gold climbing above $5,000/oz - when gold moves, Newmont's $/share earnings move disproportionately.
- Balance-sheet optionality: with roughly $33.4B in equity and only $5.18B long-term debt on the books (09/30/2025), management can accelerate buybacks or increase dividends if cash flow sustains. The company already pays a consistent quarterly dividend and has shown the ability to deploy cash via financing activities.
Put simply: you are paying today for a base business and optional upside from gold. At ~ $126 a share, the market appears to be ignoring either the recent gain in gold or the improved margin profile post-portfolio rationalization.
Trade plan (actionable)
Directional stance: Long (expectation: outperformance as gold remains elevated and Newmont converts that into cash).
Time horizon: swing (weeks to a few months) with the potential to hold into a multi-month position if catalysts accelerate.
Entry: $122–$128 (scale in 2–3 tranches).
Initial stop: $110 (hard stop-loss to cap downside; this is a ~12–10% buffer below today's price band depending on your exact entry).
Targets (scale out):
- Target 1: $140 — near-term technical re-test / 1st profit-taking (approx. +11% from current).
- Target 2: $160 — consolidation breakout if gold and results stay strong (approx. +27%).
- Target 3 (stretch): $200 — full re-rating if gold stays elevated, free cash flow beats and buybacks/dividend raises materialize (approx. +59%).
Position sizing guidance: keep exposure to a single-name commodity producer to a modest slice of portfolio (e.g., 2-5% of total capital) because price swings in miners correlate heavily with gold moves.
Catalysts that will drive the trade
- Gold price strength and safe-haven flows (recent headline: gold above $5,000 on 01/26/2026) — direct and large earnings leverage.
- Quarterly updates/earnings beats — expect operating cash flow and net income beat to compress realized downside.
- Capital allocation moves — larger buybacks or a dividend increase would force a re-rating given Newmont's balance-sheet flexibility.
- Cost/supply improvements from portfolio rationalization (sale of high-cost assets) — improves margins per ounce sold and the cash flow profile.
Risks and counterarguments
No trade is without risk. Below are the principal ways this long can fail, followed by at least one counterargument to the bullish thesis.
- Gold price reversal - Gold is the dominant driver. A sustained drop would quickly compress Newmont's earnings and share price.
- Macro/FX and rate risk - Stronger dollar or rising real rates could weigh on gold and miners, reducing the upside and potentially widening downside.
- Execution / integration risk - The Newcrest acquisition and other portfolio actions still require integration; unexpected costs, impairments or operational issues could hit margins and cash flow.
- Political & operational risk - Mining is exposed to geopolitical, permitting and local labor risks; any disruption at a major asset can be material to production and sentiment.
- Shareholder return uncertainty - Financing outflows in the quarter were large (-$2.8B financing cash flow in Q3 FY2025); if management prioritizes less efficient uses of cash, upside from buybacks/dividend increases may not materialize.
Counterargument: The stock may already price in higher gold and improved margins. If investors are forward-looking and have baked in most of the 2026 gold rally, the multiple could stay compressed and leaves limited upside. Also, given recent sizable financing outflows, management could be using cash for M&A or other non-distributive uses that don't immediately benefit shareholders.
What would change my mind
I would downgrade this trade or move to neutral if:
- Gold sustained a move below a meaningful support level and stayed there for multiple months, removing the commodity tailwind.
- Newmont issued weaker guidance or reported a material drop in operating cash flow in an upcoming quarter (Q4 or FY2025 results) relative to the $2.298B reported for Q3.
- Management materially increases leverage beyond the ~ $5.18B long-term debt level without clear, accretive returns or if large impairments related to integration surface.
Bottom line
Newmont is a conservative, cash-flowing gold platform with optional upside from higher gold and better consolidated margins post-portfolio rationalization. The company reported $2.298B in operating cash flow and $1.843B net income in Q3 FY2025 and carries modest long-term debt versus a large asset base. With gold headlines turning positive (01/26/2026), the market appears to be underweighting that upside. That combination supports a tactical long: enter $122-128, stop $110, and scale out across $140, $160 and $200 targets depending on catalyst progression.
If you take this trade, size it within a diversified portfolio and keep the stop in place. I will reassess the thesis after the next quarterly update or any sustained move in gold that materially changes Newmont's cash-flow outlook.
Disclosure: This is a trade idea and not personalized financial advice. Do your own due diligence and size positions to your risk tolerance.