Hook & thesis
TG Therapeutics is no longer a pure research-stage story. BRIUMVI (ublituximab) is on the market and sales are accelerating: revenues jumped to $161.7M in Q3 (07/01/2025 - 09/30/2025), up from $120.9M in Q1 2025. That kind of commercial growth is what the market rewards. But Wall Street isn’t emphasizing a key detail: the company’s dramatic Q3 GAAP profit was driven almost entirely by an income tax benefit of $364.986M, not by sustainable operating cash flow. If you buy the headline EPS without digging into the cash flows, you’re buying a mirage.
My take: there is a tactical long opportunity here for disciplined traders who accept high risk. The trade is to buy the commercial narrative while protecting capital against a disappointment or a re-rating when accounting one-offs are reinterpreted. In plain terms - buy a measured starter position around the current price, use a tight stop and treat upside targets as a sprint, not a multi-year hold.
What the business actually does and why the market should care
TG Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharma focused on B-cell diseases. Its near-term revenue engine is BRIUMVI for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS), and the company also runs early-stage programs (BTK inhibitor TG-1701, Azer-Cel allogeneic CAR-T, and TG-1801 bispecific) that are longer-term optionality. The market should care because the company just moved from R&D-heavy losses to a commercial revenue base: revenues grew sequentially quarter-over-quarter in 2025 from $120.856M (Q1) to $141.148M (Q2) to $161.709M (Q3). That is real commercial validation when viewed against earlier periods where revenues were modest or absent.
Commercial conversion matters: Q3 gross profit was $133.616M and operating income was $29.365M. Those are encouraging signs that margins on BRIUMVI are healthy at current scale. Conferences and external coverage (Evercore, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies participations listed across 2024-2025) show management is actively commercializing and talking to investors and prescribers.
What the numbers say - read the quality
- Revenue trend: Q1 2025 = $120.856M, Q2 2025 = $141.148M (+16.7% q/q), Q3 2025 = $161.709M (+14.5% q/q).
- Profitability (GAAP): Q3 net income = $390.895M - but that includes a $364.986M income tax benefit, so underlying profitability is much smaller (operating income was $29.365M).
- Cash and liquidity: Cash at 09/30/2025 = $178.3M. That compares to $278.9M at 06/30/2025, a decline of roughly $100.6M in the quarter. Net cash flow in Q3 was -$55.032M, including -$23.153M from operating activities and -$78.242M from financing activities.
- Balance sheet: Total assets at 09/30/2025 = $1.025B, equity = $607.218M. Inventory stood at $146.953M in Q3 (declining from earlier quarters), which suggests product build-and-ship dynamics are stabilizing.
- Operating cash volatility: Q2 operating cash was +$7.436M but Q1 operating cash was -$28.715M; Q3 returned to -$23.153M. Net cash flow swings show the company is still smoothing the transition to consistent cash generation.
Valuation framing
The dataset doesn’t provide a live market capitalization figure, so value judgment has to use price history and balance-sheet context. The stock is trading around $29.88 with a VWAP for the day of $30.11 and a prior close of $30.53. The company traded well above that in 2024 (peaks in the $40s), meaning current levels represent a sizable discount to prior highs. That discount looks tied to investor skepticism about earnings quality (the large Q3 tax benefit) and recent cash outflows.
Qualitatively, if BRIUMVI growth continues in the mid-double digits q/q and operating cash flow flips sustainably positive, the market will re-rate TG more in line with commercial-stage peers. If commercial growth slows or cash burn continues, we should expect a further multiple contraction. Until a market cap is provided, treat valuation as a conditional story - dependent on durable cash conversion, not just GAAP EPS.
Catalysts to watch (near-term)
- Conference presentations and investor meetings - upcoming participation at the TD Cowen Immunology & Inflammation Summit (11/10/2025) and other forums where management will discuss commercial uptake and guidance assumptions.
- Quarterly revenue and guidance updates - management already raised BRIUMVI full-year guidance in the Q1 release on 05/05/2025, and future cadence increases or guidance trims will move the stock materially.
- Cash flow inflection - quarterly operating cash flow turning consistently positive and cash stabilization (no need for material financing) would be a major catalyst to compress the valuation discount.
- Pipeline/partnership news - any outsized read-through from TG-1701 or Azer-Cel data could materially expand optionality, but treat that as longer-dated upside.
Trade idea (actionable)
Trade direction: Long (tactical, defined-risk).
Time horizon: Swing (weeks to a few months).
Risk level: High - this is a biotech commercial transition trade with accounting noise and cash volatility.
Entry: 29.00 - 31.00 (current last trade ~29.87; pick scale-in points across this band)Stop: 25.50 (protects against a ~14% move below entry band; respects recent support around low-$26s)Target 1 (near): 36.00 (first take-profit - captures a ~20% move from current)Target 2 (stretch): 48.00 (secondary target if revenue guide and operating cash flow both beat expectations; discipline to trim into strength)Position sizing: keep initial size small (single-digit percent of portfolio), add only on clear positive follow-through (sustained daily volume above recent averages and operating cash flow turning positive). This is not a buy-and-forget; treat it as an event-driven swing.
Risks & counterarguments
- Accounting-driven profit is misleading: Q3 GAAP net income of $390.895M is almost entirely a result of a $364.986M income tax benefit booked in the quarter. If investors focus on headline EPS (basic EPS ~$2.69, diluted ~$2.43 in Q3) without adjusting for that benefit, they may overpay. This is the core risk that could invert sentiment quickly.
- Operating cash flow remains volatile: Q3 operating cash flow was negative (-$23.153M) and net cash flow the quarter was -$55.032M. Cash fell from $278.9M at 06/30/2025 to $178.3M at 09/30/2025. If cash depletion continues, the company may need dilutive financing or must slow commercial investment - both negatives for the stock.
- Commercial execution risk: BRIUMVI adoption needs to continue growing. Sequential revenue increases are encouraging, but any slowdown versus guidance would trigger a sharp multiple reset given the company’s transition profile.
- Binary pipeline risk: The R&D programs (TG-1701, Azer-Cel, TG-1801) are optionality and binary; adverse trial news would hurt valuation, while good news could lift it - that creates two-way volatility.
- Market volatility & sector moves: Biotech is sentiment-driven; macro selloffs or rotation away from healthcare can overwhelm idiosyncratic fundamentals.
Counterargument (why a patient, longer-term investor might disagree): The company has demonstrable commercial traction: revenue grew sequentially across three quarters in 2025 and management raised BRIUMVI guidance. If revenues continue at the current trajectory and operating margins widen, GAAP profits and cash flow could normalize quickly. A longer-term investor might argue the recent tax benefit is a one-time accounting event and should not obscure the improving top-line and eventual free cash flow conversion.
What would change my mind
I would turn bullish on a multi-quarter basis (move from tactical swing to position trade) if I observe all three of the following in subsequent filings:
- Sustained positive operating cash flow (two consecutive quarters of materially positive CFO).
- Management reaffirms and tightens revenue guidance for BRIUMVI with concrete unit/adoption metrics.
- Cash balance stabilizes (no material dilutive financing) and inventory trends do not indicate channel stuffing.
If those conditions arrive, the company’s valuation discount due to accounting noise will likely compress and justify a larger, longer-term position.
Bottom line: TG Therapeutics offers a classic event-driven swing trade: commercial growth is real, but Q3 GAAP profits overstate underlying performance because of a large tax benefit. If you want exposure, do it in a measured, risk-controlled way - entry around the current band (~$29 - $31), stop under $25.50, take profits into the mid-$30s and re-evaluate if operating cash flow and guidance validate the story. This is a high-risk, high-volatility trade; size accordingly.
Key near-term dates to track: Q3 2025 filing accepted 11/05/2025 and the TD Cowen Summit presentation on 11/10/2025 where management is likely to comment publicly on commercialization and guidance assumptions.
Disclosure: This is not investment advice; it's an analyst trade idea based on recent financials and public company events. Do your own due diligence and size positions to your risk tolerance.