Hook / Thesis
United States Antimony is not a vanilla mining royalty or passive explorer - it is a small, vertically integrated producer that is actively spending to expand capacity across its antimony and zeolite businesses. That investment profile explains the mixed picture in the latest quarters: revenue is real, the balance sheet is intact, and management is using financing to fund a material capex push. The core thesis here is simple: if management can convert the current investment run-rate into increased production and sustained operating cash flow, the company should see meaningful upside. Conversely, failure to turn capex into production would make the current valuation vulnerable.
This is an actionable trade idea for risk-tolerant investors. The company is in growth mode with low interest-bearing debt, meaningful financing inflows, and heavy investing outflows - a classic staging area where execution matters more than commodities timing. I am constructive-to-cautious: long on execution, but size positions for volatility and keep a tight stop.
What the company does and why it matters
United States Antimony Corporation is a fully integrated operation covering mining, milling, smelting, and sale of antimony, plus a zeolite segment and some by-product gold and silver. The business footprint is largely North American. Antimony is a critical mineral used in flame retardants, lead-acid batteries, semiconductors, and defense applications - categories where supply-chain security and geopolitics are pushing buyers to diversify away from concentrated suppliers. That macro backdrop creates a tangible demand narrative for domestic producers able to scale.
Why the market should care now: the company is actively scaling. The most recent quarter shows management continuing to invest in fixed assets and noncurrent assets while financing activity has materially increased, which indicates an explicit growth push rather than a passive operating cycle.
Numbers that matter - read the financials
- Revenue (Q3 FY2025, period 07/01/2025 - 09/30/2025): $8,701,951. Gross profit was $2,013,442 for the same quarter, signaling a positive margin on product sales before heavy operating/other operating expenses.
- Profitability (Q3 FY2025): Net loss of $4,780,700 and operating loss of $4,917,182. The loss is driven by "other operating expenses" of $6,650,796 in that quarter, reflecting ramp costs and likely project-related expenses tied to expansion.
- Cash flow and investment (Q3 FY2025): Net cash flow from investing activities was -$18,610,649 while net cash flow from financing activities was +$35,136,006. Operating cash flow was negative at -$3,863,700. That combination shows the company is funding an aggressive capex/development program via financing rather than operating free cash flow.
- Balance sheet (as of Q3 FY2025): Total assets $79,882,341 and equity $71,750,930. Long-term debt is minimal at $93,167, and current liabilities are $6,261,389. Inventory stands at $8,413,161. In short, leverage is low and the balance sheet is the primary buffer while the company invests.
- Shares and implied market value: The company's latest diluted average shares in Q3 FY2025 were 123,412,910. Using the most recent trade price (last trade $10.85), that implies an approximate market capitalization of roughly $1.34 billion. This is a working estimate (share counts and public float move over time), but it highlights a valuation that is many times the company's book equity of ~$71.8m. The market appears to be pricing in significant future growth or scarcity value.
How to trade it - actionable plan
Trade direction: Long (speculative). Time horizon: swing to position (weeks to 12+ months). Risk level: High.
Entry / sizing:
- Primary entry zone: $10.25 - $11.25. Current last trade is $10.85; accumulation in this band gives room for short-term volatility.
- Initial position sizing: 1-3% of portfolio for general retail investors, up to 5% for conviction-oriented traders. This is not a core position unless you can absorb a binary outcome tied to execution.
Stops and risk limits:
- Hard stop: $8.00 (roughly 25-30% below entry zone). If the share price breaks this level on weak execution or cash concerns, cut losses. The company’s operating cash flow is negative and financing risk exists, so respect the stop.
Targets:
- Near-term target (if execution and revenue progression are confirmed): $15.00. This assumes the market re-rates on better operating performance and visible production improvements.
- Medium-term target (12+ months, successful ramp): $22.00 - $30.00. This reflects conversion of planned capex into incremental EBITDA and a multiple expansion as the business becomes less speculative.
- Profit-taking: scale out on strength - take partial profits at $15 and more at $22. Reassess at each milestone based on production metrics and cash flow.
Valuation framing - why the market cap vs book is meaningful
Using the latest reported diluted average shares (123.4m) and the last trade price (~$10.85), implied market capitalization is approximately $1.34 billion. At the same time reported equity on the balance sheet is about $71.8 million and total assets are $79.9 million. That means the equity market is placing a substantial premium on future growth or intrinsic scarcity value (critical mineral exposure, domestic supply advantage, vertical integration). In plain terms, the market is pricing in successful execution and sizable increases in future cash flows.
I do not present a formal DCF here because the company is in a heavy investing phase and short-term cash flows are negative; a DCF would be extremely sensitive to production assumptions. Instead, treat the market capitalization as a forward-looking implied value: investors are paying a high multiple today for a future that must be delivered through steady production ramp, margin improvement, and conversion of invested capital into operating cash flow.
Note: I estimated market capitalization from the available share count and last trade price. If the company issues more equity or converts warrants/options, the implied market capitalization and per-share math will move — this is a key execution risk to monitor.
Catalysts to watch (2-5)
- Operational ramp milestones - published production figures, concentrate shipments, or smelter throughput improvements that materially increase revenues and gross margins.
- Quarterly cash-flow progression - a move from negative to neutral/positive operating cash flow as capex completes shows the model is starting to pay off.
- Commercial contracts / offtake agreements - any multi-year supply contracts with industrial or defense customers would reduce demand risk and justify valuation.
- Critical-mineral policy moves or stockpiling initiatives - government purchases or incentives for domestic antimony/zeolite capacity would be incremental to demand and support higher pricing or guaranteed volumes.
- Visible reduction in "other operating expenses" and overhead as one-time ramp charges fade from the income statement.
Key risks and counterarguments
- Execution risk: The thesis hinges on turning investment into reliable production. The company reported -$18.6m in investing cash flow in Q3 FY2025 and negative operating cash flow (-$3.86m). If capex overruns or technical problems delay production, the business will remain cash-hungry and the stock can repriced sharply lower.
- Equity dilution risk: Management has relied on financing inflows (+$35.1m in the latest quarter). Additional financings or aggressive dilution to fund further build-out would hurt per-share returns and could destroy upside for existing shareholders.
- Commodity / end-market risk: While antimony is a critical mineral, demand cycles and substitution risk exist. A drop in end-user demand or substitution by other chemistries could soften pricing and margins.
- Accounting / "other operating expenses" volatility: The Q3 FY2025 line "other operating expenses" was $6.65m - large and opaque. If recurring, this line can keep the company unprofitable despite revenue growth.
- Market valuation mismatch: Market cap implied by share price is an order of magnitude larger than book equity. That gap assumes successful execution; if not delivered, reversion could be harsh.
Counterargument: The stock already prices in successful execution - the market capitalization (~$1.34bn implied) is very high relative to current assets and equity. If the company does not materially improve operating cash flow within 1-2 quarters after current investments complete, downside is meaningful. This makes the trade a timing and execution bet, not a pure value play.
What would change my mind
I would upgrade conviction substantially if the company demonstrates two of the following: (1) consecutive quarters of positive operating cash flow driven by higher shipment volumes; (2) signed multi-year offtake or supply agreements with credible industrial or defense buyers; (3) transparent, declining one-time "other operating expenses" that show the ramp is moving from heavy spending to steady operations. Conversely, repeated capital raises with limited evidence of production progress, ongoing high operating losses, or any material regulatory/permit setbacks would move me to neutral/negative.
Conclusion - stance and guidance
United States Antimony is a growth-at-risk story: balance-sheet friendly (very low interest-bearing debt) and clearly funded for now, but burning operating cash while investing heavily. The market appears to be paying a premium for successful execution and scarcity value in critical minerals. For active traders and risk-tolerant investors, a selective long in the $10.25 - $11.25 entry band with a hard stop near $8.00 and partial profits taken at $15 is a pragmatic way to play the upside while limiting downside exposure. Size positions modestly, watch financing/dilution closely, and trade this as an execution-dependent speculative long.
Trades to consider: Long starter position at $10.25-$11.25; add on confirmation of sequential operating cash-flow improvement or a production milestone; hard stop at $8.00; take partial profits at $15, scale out more at $22.
Disclosure: This is a trade idea for informational purposes and not individualized financial advice. Investors should perform their own due diligence and consider position sizing consistent with their risk tolerance.