Hook / Thesis
Valley National Bancorp (VLY) is worth a fresh look. The bank reported a string of quarters in 2025 showing rising net income (Q1 to Q3: $106.1M -> $133.2M -> $163.4M) and sharply lower provisions (Q1 2025: $62.7M; Q2: $37.8M; Q3: $19.2M). At the same time the company is maintaining a $0.11 quarterly dividend, which implies an annualized yield of roughly 3.5% at today's price. Those trends - provision normalization, improved operating income and dividend stability - make a compelling case to upgrade VLY to a tactical long.
Why the market should care
Valley is a diversified regional bank with roughly $63.0B in assets and $7.70B of equity as of the most recent quarter (Q3 2025). The business generates the bulk of revenue from Commercial Banking while offering consumer, wealth and niche services. What matters for investors is that earnings have improved meaningfully over the last year even as top-line revenue stayed roughly stable: revenue in Q3 2025 was $826.9M, compared with $805.0M in Q2 and $784.8M in Q1. More important is the earnings cadence: net income rose to $163.4M in Q3 2025 and the company reported an EPS beat for Q4 2025 (EPS actual 0.31 vs estimate 0.2909 on 01/29/2026), signaling the improvement is holding into year-end.
Business quality and the levered return story
Two items stand out for Valley's turnaround case:
- Provision trajectory: Provision expense has moved down sharply across 2025. Provision for loan losses was $62.7M in Q1, $37.8M in Q2 and $19.2M in Q3. That pattern reduces drags on earnings and suggests prior credit pressure is easing or is being absorbed.
- Cost and operating leverage: Operating expenses in Q3 2025 were $617.0M, noticeably lower than comparable quarters in 2024 (for example Q3 2024 operating expenses were $733.9M). Noninterest expense in Q3 2025 was $282.0M while noninterest income was $64.9M; the firm appears to be extracting leverage from its cost base while preserving core revenue.
Combine that with balance-sheet scale - $63.02B of assets and $55.32B of liabilities in Q3 2025 - and you have a bank where earnings growth can outpace revenue growth as provisions normalize and costs remain under control. That dynamic is what the market should reward.
Hard numbers that matter
- Q3 2025 revenue: $826.9M; Q2 2025: $805.0M; Q1 2025: $784.8M.
- Q3 2025 net income: $163.355M; Q2 2025: $133.167M; Q1 2025: $106.058M.
- Provision for loan losses - Q1: $62.661M; Q2: $37.799M; Q3: $19.171M.
- Assets (Q3 2025): $63,018,614,000; Equity: $7,695,374,000.
- Quarterly dividend: $0.11 (declared repeatedly through 2024-2025); annualized $0.44 implies ~3.5% yield at a $12.46 price.
- Q4 2025 reported EPS: 0.31 (actual) on 01/29/2026; revenue for that quarter reported at $542.48M.
Valuation framing
The market snapshot shows a recent closing price in the $12.46 area. Using diluted shares of roughly 563.6M (most recent quarter) gives an implied market capitalization of approximately $7.0B (12.46 * 563.6M ≈ $7.02B). Using the last four quarters' net income (Q4 2025 implied by reported EPS 0.31 multiplied by diluted shares ≈ $174.7M, plus Q3 2025 $163.4M, Q2 2025 $133.2M, Q1 2025 $106.1M) yields an approximate trailing net income of $577M. That produces an implied P/E near 12x (7.02B / 577M ≈ 12.2). Given the improving credit picture and lower provisioning, that multiple is attractive for a regional bank showing earnings momentum and a >3% cash yield.
Note: peer comparables were not provided in the same dataset; qualitatively, a mid-teens P/E for a regional bank with improving credit and a >3% yield would typically be considered reasonable to attractive depending on asset quality and deposit trends. The combination of better earnings and a steady dividend supports upside scope for multiple expansion.
Trade idea (actionable)
Thesis: Buy VLY on evidence that provisions are normalizing, operating expenses remain controlled, and Q4 2025 results confirmed improvement. Expect upside from earnings flow-through and modest multiple expansion; downside is contained by a reasonably strong equity base and a consistent dividend.
Entry: 12.25 - 12.75 (build position within this band). Current intraday prints show trades around $12.46 and last quotes near $12.56.
Stop: 11.00 (a hard stop below ~-11% from entry band, protects if credit or deposit issues re-emerge).
Targets:
- Target 1: $14.50 (first realistic target; ~12% upside from mid-entry and achievable on steady earnings + modest re-rating).
- Target 2: $16.50 (stretch target; ~32% upside from mid-entry, likely if provision trends continue lower, NII stabilizes or improves, and the firm receives multiple expansion to the mid-teens P/E).
Suggested sizing: size this trade to no more than a small-to-medium portion of risk capital (this is a regional bank trade where tail credit risks exist). Use risk per trade consistent with your plan; a stop at 11.00 keeps defined dollar loss.
Catalysts
- Quarterly earnings prints that continue lower provisions and show sequential EPS improvement (management commentary confirming normalization).
- Further capital optimization such as the 05/16/2025 redemption of $115M of subordinated notes which should reduce interest burden and improve capital mix.
- Sustained deposit stability or inflows versus peers, reducing funding costs and limiting the need to compete aggressively for deposits.
- Improvement in commercial real estate seasoning or workout outcomes that reduce reserve needs and free up earnings.
Risks and counterarguments
- Credit risk could re-intensify: the fall in provisions from Q1 to Q3 2025 is encouraging, but a reversal in CRE or commercial credit could force provisions higher, crushing the EPS improvement. Rising provisions would be the quickest way this thesis breaks.
- Deposit pressure / funding cost risk: regional banks remain sensitive to deposit flows and wholesale funding. Any meaningful deposit outflows would force the bank to pay up for funds or sell securities, compressing NII and margins.
- One-time items or accounting effects: the decline in operating expenses and provisions could partly reflect timing or one-offs. If the trend is not structural, forward earnings could disappoint.
- Rate environment and NIM risk: a rapid shift in short-term rates or a steep yield curve flattening could compress net interest margins; if NII weakens, valuation upside shrinks.
- Macro / sector shocks: any system-wide stress in regional banking or a deterioration in commercial real estate conditions (a theme discussed in the press) could materially hurt VLY.
Counterargument I want to acknowledge
An opposing view is that the earnings improvement is transitory and largely driven by temporary reductions in provisions and timing-related expense items. Under that scenario, a re-acceleration of loan losses or a deterioration in deposit costs would re-price VLY materially lower. I agree that this is a real risk; that's why the trade uses a firm stop below $11.00 and why position sizing should be conservative relative to allocation to the banking sector.
Conclusion - What would change my mind
On balance, Valley National presents a favorable risk/reward here: improving quarterly earnings ($163.4M in Q3 2025), a Q4 2025 EPS beat (0.31 on 01/29/2026), materially lower provisions and a consistent $0.11 quarterly dividend. At an implied market cap of roughly $7.0B and an approximate trailing P/E near 12x, the stock looks attractively priced for a bank showing credit stabilization.
I will re-assess my view if any of the following occur:
- Provision expense starts to rise sequentially and materially (e.g., a return to Q1 2025 levels or worse).
- Significant deposit outflows or a need to raise expensive funding.
- Management signals worsening asset quality or an unexpected regulatory/capital action.
If those negatives do not materialize and earnings continue to flow through, the trade has clear upside to the $14.50 and $16.50 targets with a defined stop at $11.00.
Disclosure: This is a trade idea, not personal investment advice. Do your own due diligence and size positions consistent with your risk tolerance.