Hook & thesis
Palantir's stock has been a poster child for AI enthusiasm, which makes it easy to argue the multiple is a froth. I disagree. Recent results show Palantir graduating from a growth-at-all-costs story to a scaled software operator: revenue in Q3 2025 of $1.181 billion, operating income of $393 million and free cash flow directionally positive through strong operating cash conversion. Those are the facts you should care about if you trade the name.
My thesis: Palantir's current valuation implies durable enterprise economics and high growth for several years. That is a stretch, but not unreasonable given the company's profitability, gross margins in excess of 80% in the most recent quarter and a net cash-like balance sheet. For active traders and longer-term position takers, the stock can still be bought on disciplined pullbacks — with a clearly defined stop and upside targets tied to an improving fundamental trajectory.
What Palantir actually does and why the market should care
Palantir builds analytical software platforms: Foundry for commercial customers and Gotham for government. Its product is sticky — contracts are often multi-year, integration-heavy and mission-critical. The company only works with Western-allied entities, which both narrows addressable market and increases the importance of contract defensibility for clients (a net positive for renewal rates).
Why the market should care: Foundry and Gotham are enterprise platforms that convert data into operational decisions. When those platforms move from pilot to enterprise rollouts, revenue scales quickly while incremental cost of sales remains low. That dynamic is visible in recent results — very high gross margins and expanding operating margins — which can justify a premium multiple when combined with recurring revenue and strong cross-sell opportunities across large clients.
Key numbers that support the argument
- Q3 2025 revenue: $1,181,092,000. Annualizing the most recent quarter implies a run-rate north of $4.7 billion (1.181B x 4).
- Q3 2025 gross profit: $973,785,000, implying a gross margin around 82% for the quarter (973.8M / 1,181.1M).
- Q3 2025 operating income: $393,256,000 - operating margin roughly 33% for the quarter (393.3M / 1,181.1M).
- Q3 2025 net income: $476,748,000 and diluted EPS about $0.18 (diluted EPS 0.18 reported for the quarter).
- Cash flow from operations (Q3 2025): $507,664,000, indicating strong cash generation at scale.
- Balance sheet: current assets of $7.586 billion and liabilities roughly $1.426 billion — a clean sheet that gives management optionality.
Those numbers matter because they show Palantir is not a one-quarter flash in the pan. The company is profitable on a GAAP basis and producing cash at scale. That changes the valuation conversation from purely forward-growth-based to a hybrid of growth + cash conversion.
Valuation framing
The dataset does not supply an official market cap field, so treat the market-cap discussion as an estimate based on available share counts and the last trade price. The most recently reported diluted average shares in Q3 2025 are 2,571,057,000. At a last trade near $167.25, a simple estimate of market capitalization is in the neighborhood of $430 billion (2.571B shares x $167.25). That estimate is rough — average diluted shares are not the same as fully diluted outstanding on the date of trade — but it gives an order of magnitude.
Estimated market cap / run-rate revenue (using Q3 2025 annualized revenue ~ $4.72B) yields a price-to-sales around ~90x. That sounds very rich until you factor in two things: (1) Palantir is already GAAP-profitable with meaningful operating margins and (2) enterprise software leaders with durable growth and margins often trade at elevated multiples while they re-rate into higher-quality earnings.
Put differently, the market is pricing Palantir like a long-duration software cash machine rather than a high-growth, loss-making startup. The company still needs to prove multiple expansion is deserved — but recent quarters give that thesis footing because revenue scale, >80% gross margins and positive operating cash flow combine to justify higher multiples than older loss-making peers.
Catalysts to push the stock higher
- Large commercial rollouts and new enterprise deals: recent press flow highlights expanded group-wide relationships (for example, with a large industrial customer). Material multi-year commercial wins would increase visibility and revenue stickiness.
- Margin leverage as Foundry adoption scales: Q3 2025 operating margin of ~33% shows the company can convert revenue into operating profit. Continued margin expansion could validate premium multiples.
- Balance-sheet optionality and capital allocation: with billions in current assets and low liabilities, the company can invest, buy back stock or fund M&A — each could be a re-rating trigger if used to accelerate durable growth.
- Macro and sector rotation into profitable AI names: sentiment-driven flows into AI and enterprise AI winners could re-rate Palantir faster than fundamentals alone.
Trade idea (actionable)
Trade direction: Long — this is a position trade (time horizon: months).
Rationale: buyable on a disciplined pullback because the business now generates GAAP profits and cash, and the balance sheet supports optionality. If you accept the premise that Palantir can keep growing revenue while maintaining high gross margins and converting revenue to operating profit, the current price reflects expectations that are demanding but reachable.
Entry zone (preferred): $155 - $165. That's a technical/pullback entry inside roughly the recent trading range and below the last close price of $170.96.
Initial stop: $130. A stop near $130 limits downside if growth disappoints or sentiment shifts — it represents about a 20%+ drawdown from the entry band and keeps risk defined.
Targets (tiered):
- Target 1 (near-term, 1-3 months): $220 - represents a ~30-40% upside from the entry and is attainable if catalysts (deal wins, margin beats) arrive.
- Target 2 (multi-month): $300 - marks a move toward multiple re-rating as the market rewards recurring revenues and consistent cash generation.
- Target 3 (aggressive / long term): $400+ - this is the buy-and-hold upside if Palantir proves sustained high growth with platform economics and large enterprise adoption.
Position sizing: risk no more than 1-3% of portfolio on this single trade given headline volatility and concentration risk. Use the stop at $130; adjust size so (entry - stop) * position size = portfolio risk tolerance.
Risks and counterarguments
Below are the principal risks that could invalidate the thesis. These are real and material — trade size and stops should reflect them.
- Multiple compression risk - The market currently prices high durability. If growth slows or investors rotate away from AI winners, the stock could suffer large downward moves even with solid fundamentals.
- Growth deceleration - Palantir must keep translating pilots into enterprise-scale deployments. If commercial adoption stalls, the valuation premium is vulnerable.
- Customer concentration and government exposure - Government contracts are large and strategic, but they can be lumpy, political and subject to procurement cycles. Any meaningful delay or loss would dent top-line growth.
- Competition and product risk - Large cloud vendors and niche analytics players are increasing their enterprise AI offerings. Execution risk remains for Palantir to maintain differentiation.
- Sentiment and headline risk - Palantir is a high-profile name; negative news or executive actions can produce outsized moves irrespective of quarter-to-quarter fundamentals.
Counterargument: Critics will say Palantir is simply an AI momentum trade that deserves a haircut. That’s possible — if growth slows materially or if the company cannot sustain margins as it broadens the customer base. But the counterpoint is empirical: Palantir is already profitable, with Q3 2025 GAAP net income of $476.7 million and operating cash flow of $507.7 million. The company is not promising future profitability, it's delivering it. Valuation therefore needs to be judged on growth plus cash conversion, not just growth alone.
What would change my mind
I will re-evaluate the bullish stance if any of the following occur: (1) two consecutive quarters of decelerating revenue growth below expectations, (2) material margin deterioration (e.g., gross margin contraction below 70% or operating income turning negative again), or (3) evidence that large commercial deals are not expanding beyond pilots into enterprise-wide rollouts. Conversely, accelerated large-scale commercial wins, sustained margin improvement and continued strong cash flow would make me more constructive and push me to recommend larger position sizing.
Conclusion
Palantir looks expensive at headline multiples, but those multiples reflect a different company than the one the market punished in earlier years. Today Palantir shows scale revenue, >80% gross margins, GAAP profitability and meaningful operating cash flow. Those attributes support a premium if management sustains growth and margin expansion.
Trade this name with discipline: buy into weakness around $155-$165, protect with a stop near $130, and run a tiered target plan. Accept that the trade is binary and sentiment-driven in the near term — size positions accordingly.
Important dates & references
Most recent quarter filing date: 11/04/2025. Snapshot date used for market pricing: 01/20/2026.
Disclosure: This is a trade idea, not investment advice. Position sizing and execution should be aligned with your risk tolerance and portfolio constraints.