Hook & thesis
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) looks like a high-conviction, risk-defined long at current levels. The bank is trading around tangible book multiples that aren’t demanding, generates consistent quarterly earnings (Q3 2025 net income attributable to parent $222M, diluted EPS $1.48) and pays a reliable quarterly dividend that was recently raised to $0.45/share. For investors who want exposure to a mid-sized regional bank with a Western U.S. footprint, ZION offers income, reasonable capitalization and near-term earnings momentum.
My trade thesis: buy ZION into strength or modest weakness with a disciplined stop. The combination of tangible book (~$46.7/share), an implied market capitalization roughly $9.1B (price ~ $61.58 x diluted shares ~147.1M), and an annualized dividend of $1.80 (4x $0.45) creates a yield near 2.9% plus an entry multiple around 1.3x book. That’s attractive for a well-capitalized regional bank with a mid-teens return on equity profile when recent quarterly results are annualized.
What the company does and why the market should care
Zions Bancorporation is a regional bank headquartered in Salt Lake City with about $88.5B of assets as of the quarter ended 09/30/2025 and a branch footprint concentrated in the Western and Southwestern U.S. The franchise tilts toward small and midsize commercial banking - a segment that benefits when deposit flows are stable and loan growth outpaces the cost of funds. Market participants should care for three reasons:
- Capital and balance sheet stability: Equity attributable to the parent was $6.865B as of 09/30/2025; assets were $88.533B. Book value per share (equity divided by diluted shares) calculates to roughly $46.7/share, giving a clean anchor for valuation.
- Consistent earnings generation: The bank reported net income of $222M for Q3 2025 and comprehensive income attributable to parent of $330M for the same quarter. Annualizing the most recent quarterly net income gives a run-rate in the high $800M range, implying an ROE in the ~12-13% neighborhood on current equity - above what you’d expect from a mere utility regional bank.
- Shareholder returns and income: Zions pays a regular quarterly dividend. The recent declaration on 10/31/2025 set the quarterly payout at $0.45 (ex-dividend 11/13/2025, pay date 11/20/2025). That implies an annual dividend of $1.80 and a current yield of about 2.9% on a $61.58 price.
Numbers that matter
- Assets (09/30/2025): $88.533B
- Equity (09/30/2025): $6.865B
- Net income attributable to parent, Q3 2025: $222M
- Diluted average shares (Q3 2025): ~147.1M
- Quarterly dividend (declared 10/31/2025): $0.45; annualized = $1.80
- Provision for loan losses, Q3 2025: $49M (variable quarter-to-quarter; watch trend)
- Interest income/expense operating net (Q3 2025): $672M
Using the diluted share count and a recent closing price of ~$61.58 (11/09/2025), you get an implied market capitalization of roughly $9.1B and a P/B of ~1.32x. Annualized net income based on the most recent quarter (4 x $222M ≈ $888M) implies a crude ROE of ~12.9% (888 / 6,865). Those are back-of-envelope figures, but they illustrate why the share looks reasonable at current levels: solid earnings power, tangible book support and a yield that isn’t trivial.
Valuation framing
There isn’t a single ‘‘correct’’ multiple for regional banks today because earnings sensitivity to rates and credit cycles varies. That said, two heuristics are useful here:
- Book-value anchor: Book per share ≈ $46.7. At a $61.58 price, the stock trades near 1.3x book. For a bank with a mid-teens (or near-13%) ROE and a visible dividend, 1.2x-1.6x book is defensible.
- Dividend yield: Annualized dividend $1.80 / $61.58 ≈ 2.9% — not high for a bank, but combined with potential for modest multiple expansion it boosts total return odds.
Market cap is not directly reported in the public snapshot here; I used the company’s diluted share count and the latest price to produce an implied market cap (~$9.1B). That calculation gives context: at this size Zions is a meaningful regional but not a large national bank - it should trade with some premium when credit conditions are benign and compress when legal or credit noise spikes.
Catalysts (near-term to medium-term)
- 01/20/2026 earnings print - reported actual EPS $1.75 vs consensus $1.59 (earnings beat) and revenue $902M vs estimate $880M - positive earnings momentum can re-rate the stock if guidance or commentary on credit is constructive.
- Dividend continuity and potential future increases: a steady quarterly $0.45 establishes a reliable cash return; management’s willingness to sustain or modestly raise the payout would support valuation.
- Improving efficiency or cost control - noninterest expense was $527M in Q3 2025; any program that stabilizes or reduces this line would flow straight to the pre-tax margin.
- Loan portfolio performance and provision normalization: recent quarters show variable provision levels (Q1 2025 $18M, Q2 2025 -$1M, Q3 2025 $49M). Clear evidence of provision normalization would reduce headline risk.
Trade idea - actionable
Stance: Long ZION (trade idea for swing/near-term position)
Entry: Accumulate 1/3 - 1/2 position on weakness between $58.00 - $62.50; add a second tranche up to $66 if momentum confirms (volume and price hold above recent highs).
Stop: $55.50 hard stop on the first tranche (roughly 7-8% below a $61.58 entry); tighten stop to $58 on remaining size if trade moves in your favor.
Targets: Target 1 = $68 (near-term resistance and ~10% above current), Target 2 = $75 (secondary resistance and multiple expansion), Target 3 = $85 (more aggressive; recovery to ~1.8x book or re-rating scenario).
Position sizing guidance: limit single-stock exposure to no more than 2-4% of portfolio on initial entry; treat this as a medium-risk bank trade given legal/newsflow headwinds (see risks below).
Risks & counterarguments
There are clear counterarguments and risks that could invalidate the trade thesis:
- Legal & reputation risk: Repeated filings in the news highlight law firms soliciting investors about possible securities claims tied to loan charge-offs and alleged loan irregularities. Even if claims are ultimately dismissed or settled at modest cost, headline uncertainty can pressure the multiple and scare depositors if amplified.
- Credit deterioration: Provisions rose to $49M in Q3 2025 after being minimal in prior quarters. If loan charge-offs or sector-specific stress (commercial real estate, energy, etc.) accelerate, this could materially compress earnings and capital ratios.
- Interest-rate sensitivity: Net interest income is the core earnings driver. A sudden drop in short-term rates or a flatter curve could reduce margin - the bank’s interest income/expense dynamics should be watched closely.
- Deposit dynamics / liquidity risk: Regional banks can be vulnerable to local deposit flight or wholesale funding shocks. While balance-sheet metrics appear healthy today (assets ~$88.5B; equity ~$6.9B), rapid deposit runoff would force asset sales or deposit repricing.
- Counterargument: The stock may not re-rate because the premium vs book is justified by structural growth limitations or persistent legal overhang. If management guidance is conservative and the legal process drags on, multiple expansion may be limited, capping upside near current levels.
What would change my view
I would turn neutral or negative if any of the following occur:
- Incremental legal disclosures that materially increase expected liability or reveal systemic underwriting issues tied to charge-offs.
- Quarterly results showing sustained rising provisions and higher charge-offs, implying credit deterioration rather than a one-off uptick.
- Deposit outflows or a meaningful deterioration in liquidity metrics on the balance sheet.
Conversely, I would become more bullish if management provides clear evidence of improving credit trends (falling provisions and stable NPLs), announces a material buyback program (builds on shareholder yield) or raises the dividend beyond the current $0.45 quarterly payout.
Conclusion
Zions is a pragmatic, actionable long right now: the stock trades at a reasonable premium to book (~1.3x) while generating healthy quarterly earnings and paying a near-3% yield. The earnings beat on 01/20/2026 is a near-term catalyst; the balance-sheet metrics provide a meaningful downside anchor. That said, legal noise and provision volatility are real and justify a disciplined stop and modest position sizing. Use the entry/stop/targets above to structure a position and watch provision and deposit trends closely - these will be the principal drivers of whether ZION remains a buy or becomes a trade to exit.
Trade mechanics recap: Buy in the $58 - $62.50 range, stop $55.50, targets $68 / $75 / $85, time horizon 3-9 months depending on catalysts and newsflow.
Disclosure: This is a trade idea, not personal financial advice. Confirm prices and risk metrics with your broker and size positions to your risk tolerance.