Hook / Thesis
Zscaler's underlying growth engine is intact. The most recent quarter (08/01/2025-10/31/2025; filed 11/25/2025) posted $788.1M in revenue, up sharply versus comparable earlier quarters, with a ~76.5% gross margin and operating cash flow of $448.3M. Those are not the metrics of a business running out of steam. What has created the short-term opportunity is KPI noise - small GAAP losses, heavy investing cash flows for strategic deals, and headline-driven sentiment that briefly punished multiples.
We view that weakness as a tactical buying window. Zscaler's business is subscription-based, highly cash-generative and still investing in AI and product expansion (recent SPLX acquisition). For disciplined traders comfortable with tech multiples, this is a long setup: enter on weakness, size appropriately, and use tight stops while targeting a two-stage upside (swing -> position). The trade acknowledges valuation risk but leans on improving operating indicators and a clean balance sheet (manageable debt) as reasons to be long.
What the company does and why it matters
Zscaler is a cloud-native cybersecurity SaaS vendor that sells secure access services - primarily Zscaler Internet Access (ZIA) for external apps and Zscaler Private Access (ZPA) for internal apps. The offering is architected for distributed workforces and cloud-first networks - two secular trends that are only gaining traction as enterprises shift security from appliance-heavy stacks to cloud-delivered Zero Trust models.
Why the market should care: enterprise adoption of Zero Trust and AI-protected application stacks drives both new customer adds and multi-year contract expansion (deferred revenue). That speaks to predictable recurring revenue, strong gross margins and multi-year customer lifetime values - the ingredients investors pay up for in high-quality SaaS companies.
Recent results that support the thesis
- Revenue acceleration: Q1 (08/01/2025-10/31/2025) revenue was $788.112M. In the comparable earlier reported quarters, revenues were $678.034M, $647.900M and $627.955M — the pattern implies solid sequential and year-over-year growth. Comparing Q1 FY2026 ($788.112M) to the prior-year quarter ($627.955M) shows ~+25.5% YoY.
- High gross margins: Gross profit in Q1 was $603.359M, implying a gross margin near 76.5% — consistent with a software subscription model where scale drives profitability.
- Strong cash flow despite GAAP noise: Net income was a modest loss (-$11.615M) while operating cash flow was $448.280M. That cash conversion (operating cash flow representing a very large share of revenue in the quarter) highlights the quality of the underlying revenue base and the timing differences between GAAP accruals and cash collection.
- Small GAAP loss and controlled operating loss: Operating income/loss for the quarter was -$36.362M — small relative to revenue and improved from larger operating losses in earlier periods. Management appears to be moving toward operating leverage without sacrificing R&D investment (R&D was $200.498M in the quarter).
- Investment for strategic expansion: Net cash flow from investing activities was -$1.502B in the quarter, consistent with the announced acquisition of AI security pioneer SPLX on 11/03/2025 and other strategic investments. That was a deliberate, near-term cash outflow intended to expand the product roadmap in AI security.
Valuation framing
Last trade prints at $222.25. Using the reported diluted/basic average shares of ~158.6M as an approximation gives an implied market capitalization near $35.3B (222.25 * 158.6M ≈ $35.3B). Using the most recent four available quarterly revenues (a simple, approximate LTM construct from the reported quarters) sums to roughly $2.74B — giving an implied price-to-sales of about 12.9x (≈13x).
That looks rich on a headline basis versus older SaaS comps, but Zscaler earns it in several ways: very high gross margins (~76.5%), a subscription model that produces strong operating cash flow (quarterly operating cash flow of $448.3M), and strategic tuck-ins to anchor AI/security capabilities. Also note the sizable deferred/revenue-like current liabilities (other current liabilities were $2.122B in the quarter) which capture customer prepayments — a positive for future recognized revenue and cash predictability.
Bottom line: valuation is not cheap, but the multiple is not irrational if the company converts strong revenue growth into durable operating leverage and continues to generate cash at current rates.
Trade idea - Actionable plan
Directional bias: Long (tactical swing with position-add optional)
Entry: 215 - 225 per share (look to stagger entry across this band). Current last trade is 222.25; weakness into 215 expands expected upside/risk favorably.
Initial stop: 195 (roughly 10% below 215; protects capital if momentum breaks). Tighten to 205 if you add size.
Targets:
- Target 1 (near-term/swing): 260 (≈+17% from 222), where multiple compression reversal and risk-on flows can re-rate the name.
- Target 2 (mid-term/position): 320 (≈+44%), contingent on continued revenue acceleration, integration of SPLX and visible operating leverage over next two quarters.
Size / risk: Keep this as a smaller-weight tactical growth position given valuation. Use position sizing to limit downside to no more than 2-3% of portfolio on a full stop trigger.
Time horizon: swing to position — 3 to 12 months depending on catalysts and re-rating signals.
Catalysts to watch (2–5)
- Integration and cross-sell from SPLX (acquisition announced 11/03/2025). Successful integration and early commercial traction would justify premium multiples.
- Quarterly results and guidance cadence (next fiscal quarter). Watch revenue growth, deferred revenue trends and operating cash flow conversion — those will drive re-rating.
- Investor conferences and management commentary (company scheduled to present at investor conferences 11/20/2025). Clear messaging on AI security strategy and TTM pipeline could move sentiment.
- Macro risk-on in tech: a recovery in growth multiples would amplify Zscaler upside given its subscription economics.
Key risks and counterarguments
- Valuation remains elevated. At an implied market cap ≈$35B and an approximate 13x sales, the stock is priced for execution. Any slowdown in revenue growth or failure to deliver operating leverage would pressure the multiple.
- M&A execution risk. The quarter shows ~-$1.5B of investing cash outflows; if SPLX integration stalls or proves operationally disruptive, that could create margin and distraction risk.
- Competition and price pressure. The Zero Trust and cloud security market is crowded. Incumbents or aggressive pricing by rivals could blunt enterprise momentum and lengthen sales cycles.
- Macro and sentiment risk. The stock has been sensitive to tech rotations. A renewed risk-off in growth stocks could drive a multi-quarter derating even if fundamentals remain steady.
- KPI volatility and accounting noise. Large deferred revenue dynamics, timing of cash flows and one-time items (acquisition-related costs) can create quarter-to-quarter noise that spooks investors despite healthy cash generation.
Counterargument to my thesis
One valid counterargument: the market may be rightly skeptical — paying a large multiple for rapid revenue growth assumes the company can convert spending into durable margin expansion and maintain high retention. If management mis-allocates capital to M&A that dilutes returns, or if growth decelerates below expectations, the multiple could compress materially and the trade would fail. That is why the trade uses a defined stop and staggered sizing.
What would change my mind
I would reduce exposure or flip to neutral/short if any of the following occur:
- Next quarter shows a material slowdown in revenue growth (meaningfully below the ~25% YoY implied by recent comps) or a sharp drop in renewal/retention metrics;
- Integration of SPLX materially increases operating expenses without visible revenue synergies after two quarters;
- Operating cash flow weakens significantly (OS: operating cash flow <10% of quarterly revenue) suggesting cash collection or contract deterioration.
Conclusion
Zscaler checks the boxes for a tactical growth trade: above-market revenue growth, very high gross margins (~76.5%), and strong operating cash flow ($448M in the most recent quarter). Short-term headline volatility from acquisition spending and small GAAP losses has created an entry window. The plan above (entry 215-225, stop 195, targets 260/320) balances upside with clear risk controls.
If management can show continued top-line acceleration, operating leverage and early commercial proof from SPLX, Zscaler could re-rate toward higher multiples. Traders should size carefully; the valuation implies the company must execute. But for disciplined investors looking for a defined-risk way to own a leader in Zero Trust and enterprise AI security, this is an attractive tactical setup.
Disclosure: This is not investment advice. The trade idea outlines a tactical approach based on recent reported financials and company announcements; use your own risk controls and sizing.