December 27, 2025
Finance

AbbVie’s Outlook for 2026: Navigating Growth and Valuation in Pharma

Assessing AbbVie’s financial performance, product pipeline, and stock valuation ahead of 2026

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Summary

AbbVie has demonstrated solid financial growth and strong market performance in 2025, supported by its expanding pharmaceutical portfolio and robust revenue projections through the decade. Despite recent challenges like patent expirations and government pricing negotiations, the company maintains a positive outlook fueled by key drug sales and a compelling dividend history. Trading at a valuation below the healthcare sector average, AbbVie appears positioned as an attractive investment opportunity heading into 2026.

Key Points

AbbVie’s stock price has increased by 29% in 2025, outperforming the broader healthcare sector.
The company reported an 8% revenue increase year-to-date in 2025, reaching $44.5 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share declined to $7.29 due to acquisition-related charges, which management views as non-concerning.
AbbVie projects high single-digit revenue growth through 2029, with increased sales forecasts for immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq.
Oncology revenues are expected to improve in 2026, supplemented by growth from Vraylar and Qulipta.
Humira sales continue to decline sharply following the loss of patent exclusivity in 2023.
The U.S. government’s drug price negotiations will affect Vraylar starting in 2027, but this is not anticipated to significantly alter long-term guidance.
AbbVie trades at a forward P/E of 16.1, below the healthcare sector average of 18.2, and has a PEG ratio of 0.4, indicating relative undervaluation.

Within the healthcare sector, where many companies have underperformed relative to broader equity markets in 2025, AbbVie has stood out as a pharmaceutical leader. The company’s stock has appreciated by approximately 29% year to date, continuing a legacy of market outperformance that stretches back to its initial public offering in 2013, despite intermittent exceptions. As investors consider their options for 2026, it is instructive to analyze whether AbbVie’s momentum is sustainable and whether the stock merits a buy, hold, or sell rating for the coming year.

One foundational factor underpinning AbbVie's strong equity performance this year has been its solid financial results. The company reported an 8% increase in revenue through the first nine months of 2025, reaching $44.5 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) declined to $7.29 from $7.96 year-over-year, mainly attributable to charges related to acquisitions, a situation management has indicated is not cause for concern.

Looking ahead, AbbVie has issued guidance projecting sustained high single-digit revenue growth extending through 2029. This optimistic forecast was detailed in early 2024 and remains intact despite some evolving factors since issuance. Notably, the company has revised upward its anticipated combined 2027 sales for its two leading immunology treatments, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, by an additional $4 billion beyond earlier estimates that exceeded $27 billion. The robust sales performances of these immunology drugs are key drivers of AbbVie's projected growth through the late 2020s.

Additionally, AbbVie foresees improvement in its oncology segment revenues starting in 2026. Its portfolio also benefits from other growth contributors such as the schizophrenia medication Vraylar and Qulipta, a treatment for migraines, which together are expected to bolster sales in coming years. Meanwhile, Humira, the company’s historically dominant product that lost patent exclusivity in 2023, is on track to phase out almost entirely. Although Humira still generated $3.3 billion in sales through the first nine months of 2025, making it the third highest revenue-generating product for AbbVie, its sales declined by 55% compared to the previous year, reflecting the impact of generic competition.

Despite this promising outlook, AbbVie faces certain challenges. One notable issue is the U.S. government’s decision to subject Vraylar to drug price negotiations, with the resulting prices scheduled to come into effect in 2027. Management has stated that this development is not expected to materially affect the company’s long-term revenue projections. Furthermore, AbbVie anticipates no additional patent expirations for major growth products through at least 2030, providing a measure of revenue stability.

Given these factors, AbbVie’s prospects over the next five years remain favorable, supported by a combination of established products, a resilient pipeline, and an aggressive growth strategy.

Turning to the stock’s valuation, the company currently trades at approximately 16.1 times forward earnings, which is lower than the healthcare sector average of 18.2. This valuation metric suggests that AbbVie shares are reasonably priced, especially considering its strong financial health and growth outlook. Moreover, the price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio stands at about 0.4, well below the commonly accepted undervaluation threshold of 1.0, further reinforcing the view that the stock is attractively valued.

Adding to its investment appeal is AbbVie's commitment to dividend payments. With a history of annual dividend increases spanning 54 years — a characteristic that qualifies AbbVie as a Dividend King — the company features a forward dividend yield of roughly 3%. This yield compares favorably to the S&P 500’s average of around 1.2% and is supported by a cash payout ratio of 61.8%, indicating a sustainable distribution policy without excessive strain on earnings.

In summary, AbbVie presents a compelling case as a strong buy for investors approaching 2026. Its robust underlying business operations, encouraging product pipeline and sales projections, fair valuation relative to the sector, and generous dividend program combine to make it a noteworthy pharmaceutical equity to watch.

Risks
  • Loss of patent exclusivity for Humira has caused a 55% revenue decline year over year for the drug.
  • Vraylar will be subject to government-negotiated drug prices starting in 2027, which could pressure margins.
  • Adjusted earnings per share have declined, partly due to acquisition charges, suggesting some integration or acquisition-related costs.
  • Though AbbVie expects no major patent expirations through the decade, unforeseen patent challenges could impact revenues.
  • Downward pressure on Humira’s revenue will continue as the drug phases out.
  • Dependence on a few key drugs, such as Skyrizi and Rinvoq, for future growth increases risk concentration.
Disclosure
This analysis does not constitute financial advice and investors should consider their individual circumstances before making investment decisions.
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