January 12, 2026
Finance

American Eagle Outfitters Raises Fourth-Quarter Profit Forecast Amid Strong Holiday Sales; Shares Decline

Robust performance from Aerie and Offline brands drives upward revision, though stock retreats following mixed market reactions

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Summary

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. has increased its fiscal fourth-quarter operating income forecast, driven by strong holiday sales and enhanced margin control. Despite the positive outlook and record December sales, the company's stock experienced a notable decline. The growth was led by significant comparable sales gains in the Aerie and Offline brands, with American Eagle brand also showing improvement. The updated guidance includes anticipated tariff-related cost pressures of approximately $50 million.

Key Points

American Eagle Outfitters raised its fiscal Q4 operating income guidance to $167 million-$170 million, up from $155 million-$160 million.
Comparable sales grew in the high single digits through January 3, with Aerie growing in the low 20s and American Eagle in the low single digits.
CEO Jay Schottenstein credited record December sales to strong demand for new collections, marketing effectiveness, and sustained post-holiday momentum.
Tariff-related cost pressures of around $50 million are factored into the updated guidance, consistent with previous estimates.
American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE:AEO) announced an upward revision to its fiscal fourth-quarter operating income guidance on Monday, attributing the change to vigorous holiday season demand and improved margin management. The company reported comparable sales growth through January 3 in the high single digits across its portfolio, from both brand and channel perspectives. Specifically, the American Eagle brand achieved low single-digit comparable sales increases, while the Aerie brand experienced comparable growth in the low 20 percent range.

Capitalizing on these robust sales figures, the management team elevated the anticipated operating income for the quarter to a range of $167 million to $170 million, exceeding the prior forecast of $155 million to $160 million. Concurrently, consolidated comparable sales growth is now projected between 8% and 9%, underpinned by disciplined execution of margin strategies.

Despite this optimistic sales and income forecast, the company maintained guidance that reflects approximately $50 million in cost headwinds associated with tariffs, consistent with earlier disclosures. These tariff-related expenses continue to weigh on the profit outlook but have not deterred the improved performance expectations.

CEO Jay Schottenstein highlighted record sales results in December as a key factor driving the enhanced outlook. He attributed the momentum to strong consumer demand for the company’s new merchandise collections, effective marketing efforts, and persistent post-holiday shopping activity. Schottenstein identified the Aerie and Offline brands as particularly strong contributors to growth, while the American Eagle brand demonstrated positive sequential sales improvement during the quarter.

"Momentum persisted into the fourth quarter, with December delivering record sales bolstered by the strength of our brand portfolio," Schottenstein stated. "We saw especially compelling growth at Aerie and Offline, with sequential improvement at American Eagle, reflecting the broader appeal of our offerings and the effectiveness of our marketing initiatives."

The company’s stock performance has drawn investor interest amid this backdrop of strong operational results. The shares recently achieved 52-week highs, reflecting optimistic market sentiment ahead of the fourth-quarter reporting period. However, following the updated earnings guidance, AEO shares declined sharply, dropping over 5% to trade near $25.42 per share on Monday, indicating a cautious reception to the outlook despite the positive underlying sales momentum.

Industry observers often compare American Eagle’s performance against peers such as Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) and Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS). Additionally, sector-focused exchange traded funds like the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE:XRT) and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLY) serve as benchmarks for retail and apparel demand trends within the broader market context.

At the time of publication, shares of American Eagle Outfitters were trading down 5.22%, reflecting adjustments in investor expectations following the company’s detailed guidance. This movement contrasts with the modest positive changes seen in the broader retail ETFs, underscoring the stock-specific factors influencing short-term market dynamics.


Overall, the company’s disclosures portray a strong holiday season performance driving enhanced profit expectations. The focus on margin discipline and the identification of leading growth brands underscore the operational strategies contributing to the positive results. However, persistent tariff-related cost pressures and the market’s cautious response introduce uncertainties regarding near-term stock performance.

Risks
  • Approximately $50 million in tariff-related costs pose ongoing margin pressure.
  • Despite robust sales figures, the stock price dropped significantly, indicating possible market skepticism or valuation concerns.
  • Competitive pressure from peer companies like Abercrombie & Fitch and Gap could impact future sales performance.
  • Broader retail and consumer discretionary market trends, as tracked by ETFs like XRT and XLY, may influence investor sentiment towards AEO shares.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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