Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: APLS) is demonstrating notable progress within the rare kidney disease market sector, driven by early adoption of its recently FDA-approved treatment. This momentum suggests a potential transformative phase in the company’s future revenue streams over the coming years. On Wednesday, Bank of America Securities (BofA) upgraded Apellis’ rating, highlighting the market’s undervaluation of Empaveli’s scope in treating complement 3 glomerulopathy (C3G) and immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN).
Analyst Tazeen Ahmad’s assessment pointed out that the current market pricing fails to fully recognize the commercial reach of Empaveli (pegcetacoplan) in these new indications. Empaveli obtained FDA approval in July 2025 as the first-ever treatment for C3G or primary IC-MPGN in patients aged 12 years and older, specifically aimed at reducing proteinuria. In addition, Empaveli is cleared for use in adults with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) within the United States, expanding its clinical footprint.
Examining the early commercial performance, Apellis reported $27 million in U.S. net product revenue for Empaveli during the third quarter following its late July approval. Since this regulatory milestone, the company has initiated 267 new patient start forms in the C3G/IC-MPGN patient groups. This activity corresponds roughly to a 5% penetration of the estimated 5,000 patients within the U.S. market.
Management communications have emphasized encouraging feedback from payers in the early stages, noting that there have been no full coverage denials to date. This suggests a favorable reimbursement environment that could support further growth.
In terms of competitive positioning and market dynamics, Empaveli’s broader label, encompassing IC-MPGN, pediatric, and post-transplant patient populations, appears to be facilitating initial adoption. Apellis contends that Empaveli offers enhanced efficacy compared with Novartis AG’s Fabhalta (iptacopan), bolstering its competitive stance.
BofA’s financial modeling estimates peak U.S. sales of Empaveli at $508 million by 2033, predicated on achieving a 20% peak market penetration. This potential contributes approximately $10 per share to BofA’s price target of $28 per Apellis share. The firm raised Apellis’ rating to Buy from Neutral in light of sustained positive momentum connected to the Empaveli launch in C3G, indicating upside potential beyond current estimates.
Regarding Apellis’ Syfovre franchise for geographic atrophy (GA), the analyst articulated challenges faced in 2025 due to the withdrawal of charitable foundation funding, which materially affected this business segment. Nonetheless, modest sales growth is anticipated to continue through 2026.
Apellis has plans to support Syfovre’s market position through submission of a prefilled syringe formulation in H1 2026. This innovation is expected to re-invigorate uptake and provide a competitive edge by improving ease of administration. The commercial benefits of the prefilled syringe are projected to materialize in 2027, potentially expanding market share and growing the GA market overall. This product segment currently underpins approximately $16 per share of the price forecast.
On Wall Street, Apellis Pharmaceuticals’ shares reflected confidence with a 2.37% increase, trading at $21.52 as measured at the time of reporting. This performance illustrates investor reception to the unfolding developments and growth prospects presented by Empaveli and the company's strategic initiatives.
In summary, Apellis is experiencing a pivotal period leveraging innovative treatments that address unmet medical needs within rare kidney diseases and ophthalmology. The encouraging early commercial traction for Empaveli in C3G and IC-MPGN, alongside forthcoming enhancements to Syfovre, underscore the company’s potential for sustainable revenue expansion. However, vigilance regarding patient access, market penetration, and execution on future product launches will be critical for validating these projections.
January 21, 2026
Finance
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Sees Promising Uptake in Rare Kidney Disease Market with Empaveli
Bank of America Upgrades Apellis on Underestimated Commercial Potential Amid Early Success of Empaveli in C3G and IC-MPGN
Hana Yamamoto
Consumer Staples Analyst
Summary
Apellis Pharmaceuticals, buoyed by the recent FDA approval of Empaveli for a rare kidney disease, shows early signs of a meaningful growth trajectory. Bank of America Securities highlighted the underappreciated commercial opportunity for Empaveli in complement 3 glomerulopathy and immune complex membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis, leading to an upgrade of Apellis shares. The company’s recent product revenues and patient adoption rates underpin an optimistic outlook, despite some challenges on the Syfovre front.
Key Points
Empaveli received FDA approval in July 2025 for treating C3 glomerulopathy and IC-MPGN in patients 12 and older, marking the first approved therapy for these conditions.
Apellis reported $27 million in U.S. net product revenue for Empaveli in Q3, with approximately 5% patient market penetration based on new patient start forms.
Bank of America upgraded Apellis to Buy, projecting peak Empaveli U.S. sales of $508 million by 2033, based on 20% market penetration.
The Syfovre geographic atrophy business faced setbacks in 2025 due to loss of charitable funding, but the launch of a prefilled syringe in 2026 is expected to enhance market uptake starting 2027.
Risks
- Empaveli’s commercial success depends on continued payer coverage and maintaining low denial rates; any changes could impact growth.
- Achieving the projected peak market penetration for Empaveli in rare kidney diseases involves uncertainties tied to patient enrollment and treatment adoption.
- Syfovre’s growth is challenged by the loss of charitable foundation funding affecting its GA business, introducing revenue pressure.
- Timely approval and market acceptance of Syfovre’s prefilled syringe formulation are pivotal; delays or weak uptake could hinder anticipated benefits.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice