Arthur Hayes, known for his bullish stance on Bitcoin and founding role at BitMex, recently outlined a market thesis tying President Trump’s geopolitical moves and monetary policies to the future direction of Bitcoin into 2026. Hayes centers his analysis on developments linked to Venezuela—a country with the largest proven oil reserves globally—and the handling of fuel prices in the United States, which historically have played an unexpected but significant role in shaping election outcomes.
Hayes introduces the concept of the "10% gas price rule," a metric he argues has consistently influenced shifts in political power during elections. The rule posits that when the national average price of gasoline rises by 10% or more in the three months preceding an election year, relative to prices in January of the same year, the control of the governing party tends to change hands. With this principle in mind, Hayes interprets President Trump’s actions concerning Venezuela as an attempt to keep gas prices within a manageable range to bolster economic sentiment and safeguard political standing.
Specifically, the Trump administration is seen as maneuvering to increase the U.S. oil supply by tapping into Venezuela’s vast crude reserves, channeling cheap oil to Gulf Coast refineries. This aims to prevent fuel price spikes even as the government pursues extensive monetary stimulus. According to Hayes, this strategy is designed to stimulate the economy by increasing liquidity and allowing the printing of trillions of dollars, all without triggering inflation-induced voter backlash mediated through higher gas prices.
Two Divergent Outcomes for Bitcoin's Future
Hayes outlines two possible scenarios based on the interplay between monetary expansion and oil supply dynamics. In the first, or bullish case, the U.S. successfully introduces Venezuelan oil into the market, which keeps gas prices stable despite a flood of liquidity into the economy. The increased money supply chasing assets, notably Bitcoin, is expected to fuel a significant price rally for the cryptocurrency.
Conversely, the bearish scenario entails failure to bring Venezuelan oil to market swiftly enough. Without this supply, oil prices surge alongside the inflationary pressures of a rapidly expanding money supply. Under these conditions, the Trump administration would be compelled to rein in monetary expansion to avoid an inflation crisis, which in turn would stifle the Bitcoin rally.
A crucial variable in assessing these outcomes is the behavior of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. Hayes indicates that yields approaching 5% would reflect market alarm over inflation, signaling likely monetary tightening measures. The Trump administration’s past behavior, including a notable incident in April of the previous year where tariff threats and market turbulence preceded a quick policy reversal, serves as a historical example supporting this dynamic.
Hayes’ Expectation: Continued Monetary Expansion
Arthur Hayes presents his base case as optimistic for Bitcoin, arguing that the market will embrace the narrative of increasing Venezuelan oil supply, thereby keeping gas prices in check and enabling unfettered monetary printing. He draws a parallel between the speed of Trump’s money printing policies and the frequent strategic adjustments made by Israeli leadership in international negotiations, highlighting the relentless pace of fiscal stimulus.
Hayes references the 2020 fiscal response when the government injected trillions directly into the economy, contending that failure to expand money supply would be politically untenable for Trump. The co-founder supports his theory by displaying data depicting a strong correlation between Bitcoin price movements and expansions in the monetary base, suggesting liquidity flows directly influence Bitcoin valuations.
Portfolio Positioning and Market Sentiment
In line with his bullish stance, Hayes reveals that his fund, Maelstrom, has entered 2026 carrying nearly maximum risk exposure. This includes a substantial position in Bitcoin, although he notes a strategy of selling Bitcoin holdings to increase investments in privacy-focused altcoins. This positioning reflects a belief that growth in fiat credit availability provides a tailwind not only for Bitcoin but also for broader digital asset markets.
Hayes emphasizes an objective approach to markets, advocating for decisions based on data and liquidity signals rather than ideological biases around political or economic systems. His call to action is straightforward: investors should capitalize on the anticipated monetary conditions by buying Bitcoin and related assets.
Conclusion
Arthur Hayes’ analysis connects President Trump’s geopolitical maneuvering and monetary policy directly to Bitcoin’s performance, framing energy prices as a pivotal factor in election outcomes and market trajectories. The “10% gas price rule” serves as a cornerstone of this framework, linking fuel costs to political and economic shifts. With the outcomes hinging on the successful deployment of Venezuelan oil into U.S. markets and resulting effects on inflation and liquidity, Hayes outlines a clear dichotomy for investors to monitor as 2026 approaches.