At the onset of 2026, XRP experienced a notable price increase exceeding 15%, outperforming prominent cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which rose by approximately 1.82%, and Ethereum, which gained about 0.85%. This development has sparked optimism among some investors who anticipate XRP embarking on another significant upward trajectory similar to the rallies it experienced in the previous year.
Nevertheless, it is important to temper expectations with a realistic appraisal of XRP's historical price ceilings and market factors. XRP's highest recorded price stands at $3.84, a peak reached back in January 2018. Although XRP made substantial advances towards this price level last year, peaking at $3.65 during July, the momentum did not persist. Subsequent to reaching this multiyear high, XRP's value declined sharply, closing the year below the $2 mark.
This price behavior signals potential resistance in advancing beyond previous highs. Compounding this is XRP's considerable circulating coin supply, currently totaling 60 billion coins, which impacts the market capitalization necessary to support higher price levels.
For XRP to attain a price of $5 per coin, the implied market capitalization would approximate $300 billion, a figure that brings it close to matching Ethereum's valuation as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. This raises the question of feasibility concerning XRP surpassing Ethereum's market position, especially given no corresponding shifts in underlying fundamentals have been observed.
The recent uptick in XRP's price has been significantly influenced by inflows into newly launched spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) centered around XRP. Since their introduction in November, these ETFs have accumulated more than $1 billion in investments, reflecting strong interest from institutional investors. This development presents a more accessible route for institutional exposure to XRP.
However, drawing a comparison to earlier projections at the time of these ETFs' discussions is instructive. Last year, analysts speculated that inflows could reach up to $8 billion, predicated on substantial institutional demand that was thought to be pent up. Viewing the current inflows through this lens, $1 billion, while noteworthy, appears modest and insufficient to definitively drive XRP prices towards the $5 threshold.
Investors should be cautious given XRP’s historical pattern of price movements resembling those of meme stocks, characterized by volatility driven primarily by headlines and sentiment rather than changes in intrinsic value or fundamentals. Attention-grabbing announcements regarding XRP’s potential to disrupt cross-border payments have not consistently translated into sustained price appreciation.
Therefore, while XRP may revisit price levels near $4, expectations for it to exceed $5 should be measured carefully. Market participants must account for the historic price resistance, market capitalization requirements, and the current pace of institutional adoption via ETFs, which collectively suggest that the immediate prospect of XRP reaching $5 remains uncertain.