January 20, 2026
Finance

BHP Elevates Copper Production Forecast Amid Strong Market Prices and Peer Supply Challenges

Despite softer second-quarter copper output, BHP advances guidance leveraging record mine throughput and resilient commodity demand

Summary

BHP Group Limited has increased its full-year copper production guidance for fiscal 2026 due to robust operational performance and elevated market prices, even as second-quarter copper output declined. The miner's iron ore segment showed growth, supported by improved logistics and favorable conditions. Management highlighted steady demand fundamentals driven by China and India, underpinning a positive outlook for commodities.

Key Points

BHP raised fiscal 2026 copper production guidance to 1.9-2.0 million tonnes from prior 1.8-2.0 million tonnes following strong asset performance.
Second-quarter copper production declined 4% year-over-year to 490.5 thousand tonnes, affected by lower grades and decreases at Escondida and Pampa Norte mines.
Iron ore production increased 5% year-over-year to 69.7 million tonnes, boosted by Western Australia Iron Ore operations and improved supply chains.
Demand for commodities remains resilient, supported by Chinese policy support and Indian domestic growth, with global economic growth projected at around 3% in 2026.

BHP Group Limited, one of the world27s largest diversified mining companies, has updated its production outlook for fiscal year 2026, raising its copper guidance range to 1.9 to 2 million tonnes. This revision comes on the back of better-than-expected operational results from key assets amid a backdrop of record-high copper prices and supply interruptions experienced by competitors.

During the company27s second quarter, copper output fell 4% year-over-year to 490.5 thousand tonnes. This decline was driven primarily by decreases at the Escondida mine, which saw a 7% reduction, and Pampa Norte, which declined by 13% compared to the same period last year. Sequentially, copper production also edged down by 1%, largely reflecting planned lower ore grades at Escondida.

Conversely, BHP27s iron ore division delivered a 5% increase in production year-over-year, achieving 69.7 million tonnes during the quarter. This uptick was attributable to higher output from the Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) operations, supported by improved supply chain efficiencies. Additionally, steelmaking coal production experienced a 3% decrease year-over-year, totaling 4.3 million tonnes in the quarter.

Examining the first half of fiscal 2026, BHP reported copper production of 984.1 thousand tonnes, essentially flat year-over-year. Iron ore output advanced 2% year-over-year to 133.8 million tonnes, further underscoring the company27s steady performance in this commodity amid fluctuating market conditions.

Mike Henry, BHP27s Chief Executive Officer, characterized the first half as a period of 27very strong performance,27 citing record operational metrics at both copper and iron ore assets achieved safely within beneficial commodity price environments. Copper prices rose approximately 32%, while iron ore prices increased around 4% year-over-year, factors contributing to the company27s solid results.

Henry emphasized the ongoing resilience of Chinese demand for commodities, which, despite a moderation in growth during the latter half of calendar 2025, remained underpinned by targeted policy measures and strong export activity. The slowdown was observed notably across China's construction, manufacturing, and infrastructure sectors.

Adding to the demand landscape, India has emerged as a significant growth driver, with vigorous domestic activity pushing up steel consumption and accelerating copper use. These dynamics, coupled with an expectation of approximately 3% global economic growth in 2026, support an optimistic commodity outlook.

Looking ahead, BHP is entering the second half of fiscal 2026 with momentum in its operational performance and is aligning its long-term strategy around a substantial copper development pipeline. The company aims to achieve approximately 2 million tonnes of attributable copper production annually during the 2030s, signaling commitment to growth in this critical metal.

With its revised guidance, BHP now projects fiscal 2026 copper production between 1.9 million and 2 million tonnes, an increase from the previous floor of 1.8 million tonnes. Iron ore production forecast remains consistent with prior estimates, ranging between 258 million and 269 million tonnes.

The upward revision in copper output guidance is underpinned by stronger-than-expected performance across BHP27s mining assets. Escondida, the company27s flagship copper mine, recorded unprecedented concentrator throughput during the first half, leading to a boost in production outlook for the fiscal year.

Similarly, Antamina, another significant copper asset, has elevated its production expectations, while operations at Spence and Copper SA are on track with plans. Notably, Copper SA achieved a record in refined gold output, marking a positive contribution to the company27s precious metals segment.

In iron ore, WAIO reported record production and shipment volumes in the first half of fiscal 2026, positioning the division well as it heads into the seasonally wetter third quarter, traditionally a challenging period for mining logistics.

BHP is scheduled to release its complete second-quarter results on February 17, 2026. As of early Tuesday trading, BHP27s shares experienced a decline of approximately 1.63%, trading near $63.80 per share.

Risks
  • Copper production faces variability due to changing ore grades, as seen in the quarter-on-quarter decline at Escondida.
  • Global demand for commodities could be impacted by economic slowdowns, particularly in major consuming regions such as China and India.
  • Supply disruptions among competitors may change, affecting market pricing and BHP27s competitive positioning.
  • Seasonal weather conditions, such as the wetter third quarter impacting WAIO, present operational challenges that could affect output and shipments.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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