At the recent Davos gathering, Binance founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao offered a bold outlook on Bitcoin’s market trajectory ahead, expressing strong conviction that 2026 will mark a super cycle for the leading cryptocurrency, potentially disrupting its traditional four-year cyclical behavior.
Zhao highlighted that Bitcoin historically experiences a recurring four-year rhythm characterized by a surge to a peak followed by a period of decline. However, he noted that the current environment differs markedly from previous cycles, primarily due to the United States adopting a more supportive stance on cryptocurrencies, which he believes sets a precedent that other nations are starting to follow.
According to Zhao, this regulatory shift could fundamentally alter Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, leading to a significant and sustained price upswing rather than the usual post-peak downturn. He emphasized his confidence in this multi-year view of Bitcoin’s value appreciation, describing the trend over a five- to ten-year horizon as "very easy to predict." Notably, Zhao stated he does not engage in trading activities himself but maintains holdings in Bitcoin and Binance Coin (BNB), opting for a long-term investment approach without attempting to time market fluctuations.
In the context of Binance’s U.S. operations, Zhao confirmed plans for a renewed push with Binance US, following the dismissal of a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit, which was dropped "with prejudice," effectively barring the SEC from refiling the case. He acknowledged that 2023 had been a difficult year for Binance US, citing the loss of banking relationships as a significant obstacle stemming from the litigation. Despite these challenges, Zhao shared that the platform has recently secured a new banking partnership, an essential component for its operational revival.
Zhao further underscored the competitive strengths of Binance US, highlighting its substantially lower cost structure compared with rivals such as Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN). This operational efficiency enables Binance US to offer considerably reduced fees to its customer base, providing a noteworthy advantage in the increasingly competitive crypto exchange landscape.
In a broader industry perspective, Zhao remarked on the importance of competition by referencing a recent interaction with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong at Davos. He suggested that having multiple exchanges fostering market competition ultimately benefits consumers through innovation and improved services.
Addressing questions concerning purported connections to political entities and specific cryptocurrency ventures, Zhao clarified his position regarding a pardon issued in October 2025. He firmly denied any links between Binance and the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto initiative, emphasizing that a reported $2 billion payment from MGX to Binance, conducted via USD1 stablecoin, was purely transactional rather than an investment. He reiterated that Binance promptly converted portions of this payment and had no intention to retain the full sum in stablecoins. Zhao also stated that he has never met former President Donald Trump personally, nor engaged in any direct communications or meetings involving handshakes.
Zhao openly discussed his legal journey, disclosing that he served four months in prison in 2024 following a guilty plea for enabling money laundering. He noted that his initial cellmate was serving a 30-year sentence for double homicide, an experience that defined his incarceration period. Reflecting on lessons learned, Zhao expressed regret over not having restricted U.S. users from accessing Binance from the company’s inception, viewing this as a strategic misstep. He conveyed relief following his pardon, describing it as lifting a significant psychological weight, although acknowledging that he was technically free prior but still burdened by his felon status. The pardon restored what he termed full freedom.
Looking forward, Zhao revealed his continued ownership of a substantial yet undisclosed stake in Binance but confirmed he has no intention of resuming an operational role within the company. Instead, he is dedicating efforts to initiatives such as Giggle Academy, a free educational platform, as well as providing counsel to governments worldwide on cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks.
With these perspectives, Zhao’s super cycle projection frames the year 2026 as a critical juncture for Bitcoin. The key question remains whether institutional adoption and clearer regulatory regimes can propel the cryptocurrency beyond its historical cyclical constraints, ushering in a period of exceptional growth and market transformation.