Recent data reveals that investors in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have taken an underwater position, facing losses relative to their original investments. According to Bianco Research's Jim Bianco, Bitcoin ETF purchasers since January 2024 entered at an average price near $90,200, while the current trading price has dipped to approximately $84,000. This represents a decline of roughly $5,000 or about 7%, placing ETF holders in a loss position at present.
In contrast, Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR), a major digital asset custodian known for its significant Bitcoin holdings, displays a different profit profile. The firm holds Bitcoin at an average acquisition cost of $76,020, indicating an unrealized gain of around $8,000 per Bitcoin, equating to a 12% profit margin at current prices.
Together, Strategy Inc. and Bitcoin ETFs account for an estimated 10% of the total Bitcoin supply in circulation. Nonetheless, the aggregated position of ETF holders, combined with Strategy's holdings, currently reflects no unrealized profits, underscoring the pressure at present market levels.
Average Cost Basis as a Key Price Floor
Historical price behavior has demonstrated that the collective average entry price for major Bitcoin holders often serves as a critical support point. In particular, September 2024 saw Bitcoin fall below the ETF average purchase price, prompting a period of consolidation that preceded a robust price recovery. A similar occurrence was observed in early 2025 amid tariff-induced market selloffs.
Current calculations from Bianco Research identify the combined average acquisition price of Strategy Inc. and spot Bitcoin ETFs to be roughly $84,500. Throughout the current market cycle, substantial price declines have tended to diminish near this level, reinforcing its significance in sustaining the overall bullish market framework.
If Bitcoin were to fall and sustain trading below the $84,500 threshold, there is a risk of a more profound price correction, which could undermine the bullish outlook widely held among investors.
Technical Indicators Confirm Weak Momentum
Bitcoin's technical posture indicates a notable weakening trend. The cryptocurrency has declined by 2.5% in today's trading session and is nearly 8% below its recent peak. Chart analysis reveals that Bitcoin has broken down from a rising wedge formation, characterized by converging trendlines that had compressed trading activity over recent weeks. The breakdown from this pattern is conventionally viewed as bearish, presaging further downside movement.
Additionally, Bitcoin's price currently resides below four essential exponential moving averages (EMAs), confirming a bearish layering: the 20-day EMA stands at $89,056, the 50-day EMA at $90,665, the 100-day EMA at $94,244, and the 200-day EMA at $98,135. The 20-day EMA exceeds current prices by nearly $5,000, highlighting a significant shift in momentum.
Moreover, the Supertrend indicator, positioned at $91,180, has flipped to a bearish signal and remains well above the current Bitcoin price, further substantiating the ongoing downtrend.
Support Levels and Potential Downside Targets
Immediate support for Bitcoin is expected within the $82,500 to $83,000 range, coinciding with the measured downside target derived from the wedge breakdown. Should prices breach this support, a major psychological and technical support level near $80,000 comes into focus—this level has historically served as a floor during prior Bitcoin corrections.
Breaking decisively below $80,000 could trigger heightened selling pressure driven by panic, potentially opening the door to further declines targeting the $75,000 to $78,000 area.
For any meaningful bullish reversal, Bitcoin must recapture the former wedge breakdown region around $87,000 to $88,000 and climb back above the 20-day EMA. Absent such a reclaiming move, price recoveries are more likely to be interpreted as opportunities for risk reduction rather than entry points for new positions.
Market volatility continues to provide frequent trading opportunities, with analysts noting rapid shifts from steep declines to sudden rebounds. Short-term trade alerts, designed to capitalize on such fluctuations, often involve closing positions within days, reflecting an environment of dynamic price action.
Overall, Bitcoin's current state reflects a tenuous balance, with major holders operating around break-even zones, and technical signals leaning negative. Market participants should remain attentive to support levels near $84,500 and $80,000, as these may determine the cryptocurrency's near-term trajectory.