Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States collectively recorded net inflows amounting to $561.9 million on Monday, marking a reversal from a four-day stretch of capital withdrawals. This change in investor behavior also follows two straight weeks where net outflows summed to nearly $2.82 billion. The inflows indicate a renewed appetite among institutional and large-scale investors for direct Bitcoin exposure through regulated vehicle frameworks.
Prominent funds drove much of the Monday inflows. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (ticker: IBIT) attracted $142 million in new capital, closely followed by Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) which added $153.4 million. Bitwise's Bitcoin ETF (BITB) also saw substantial inflows, gaining $96.5 million. Other fund managers including Grayscale, Ark & 21Shares, VanEck, Invesco, and WisdomTree contributed to the buying activity, although at relatively smaller scales.
The timing of these inflows correlates with Bitcoin’s price dynamics last week. Bitcoin briefly declined to approximately $75,000 — its lowest level in over nine months — but subsequently bounced back to close Monday near $78,500. This price performance may have incentivized buyers to increase their exposure at comparatively lower price points.
Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, observed that sizable allocators are deploying regulated ETFs as a tool to incrementally scale their Bitcoin positions. These moves are part of broader macroeconomic portfolio adjustments and strategic positioning shifts across various asset classes. Should this pattern of investing continue, it could effectively reduce the available liquid Bitcoin supply on exchanges, potentially fortifying price support in the near term.
Despite recent inflows, U.S.-based Bitcoin ETF investors remain in a position of unrealized loss when considering average acquisition costs. The average cost basis per Bitcoin held by ETF investors has been estimated at approximately $84,099, while the current market price hovers near $78,000. This gap reflects an average negative differential of about $6,000 per coin in held positions.
An important divergence has surfaced in market activity. While Bitcoin spot price sits around 40% below its all-time highs seen in October, holdings within spot Bitcoin ETFs have only diminished by about 5%, currently totaling close to 1.3 million Bitcoins. This steadiness in ETF coin volumes suggests sizable investor confidence despite broader market downturns.
ETF assets under management total approximately $100.38 billion, an amount representing 6.44% of Bitcoin’s overall market capitalization. This share reflects substantial institutional engagement through these investment vehicles.
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, offered insights into previous withdrawal phases. He noted that earlier redemption waves were influenced by the erosion of arbitrage opportunities as price spreads between spot ETFs and Bitcoin futures contracts narrowed. This tightening, combined with diminishing risk tolerance among investors, prompted allocations to pull back from Bitcoin exposure.
Nevertheless, after Bitcoin tested critical price lows on two occasions, market sentiment began to recalibrate by factoring in previously pessimistic outlooks. Medium- to longer-term capital now appears increasingly attracted to the asset at current valuation levels, finding such entry points conducive for position building.
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin’s price has recently broken below a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling that sellers maintained control through this consolidation phase. Currently, the Supertrend indicator stands at $87,551, well above the prevailing Bitcoin price, while the Parabolic SAR indicator presents dynamic resistance near $84,155.
Crucial near-term support is located around $78,000; a breakdown below this level could push prices toward the next significant support zone between $75,000 and $76,000. Conversely, any rebound faces initial resistance near $84,000, followed by heightened resistance levels around $87,500.
In summary, although many Bitcoin ETF holders remain underwater at present market prices, the inflows into these funds underline a perception among large allocators that prices beneath $80,000 provide compelling value propositions. Should inflows continue, they may contribute to a constriction of liquid supply and foster more stable pricing conditions in the near term.
Image credit: Shutterstock