Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has experienced a notable decline of 8% over the recent week. According to crypto market analyst Benjamin Cowen, this drop and the potential for additional declines fit into a well-established historical pattern that Bitcoin has followed through its market cycles.
Cowen's observations emphasize that Bitcoin's current weakening is not indicative of a fundamental breakdown in its long-term value proposition. Instead, the downturn arises predominantly from the timing within Bitcoin's recurring price cycles, combined with contraction in global liquidity and a repetition of historical price movements.
Detailed analysis points to the present market phase coinciding with the typical timing when Bitcoin has undergone significant rollovers in prior market cycles. Cowen identifies October 2025 as the peak of the current cycle, marking day 1,462. This date fits approximately midway between the lengths of the two preceding Bitcoin cycles, underscoring a consistent structural timeline in Bitcoin's market rhythm.
Historically, each major Bitcoin bear market has commenced in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year. This pattern occurred in 2013, 2017, 2021, and now once again in 2025, indicating a recurring structural rhythm that shapes Bitcoin's price trajectory. Cowen succinctly states that Bitcoin is declining "because this is when it always drops," highlighting the predictable nature of its cyclical downturns.
Examining the macroeconomic context, Cowen draws parallels between the current environment and that of 2019, the only previous cycle where Bitcoin reached a peak amid market apathy rather than speculative frenzy. Both periods lacked a significant rotation into altcoins and displayed price movements characterized by lower highs and lower lows, indicative of weakening market momentum.
Moreover, both cycle tops coincided with reductions in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. This observation reinforces Cowen's thesis that changes in global liquidity play a more critical role in influencing Bitcoin's price movements than the M2 money supply. His analysis focuses on net global liquidity—a measure encompassing major central banks' liquidity positions—adjusted for factors such as reverse repurchase agreements and Treasury balances.
For the foreseeable future, Cowen anticipates Bitcoin to continue underperforming equity markets. This underperformance is expected to persist until equities encounter significant weakness, which in turn could prompt central banks to introduce renewed liquidity. Such liquidity injections could eventually ameliorate conditions for cryptocurrencies and support price recoveries.
Looking ahead, Cowen foresees Bitcoin potentially revisiting its 200-week moving average, a historical level frequently tested during major market downturns. Utilizing the Strategy indicator as a proxy for Bitcoin's cycle behavior, he notes that following the 2021 peak, Bitcoin took approximately 98 weeks to reach a cycle bottom.
Applying this approximate timeline to the October 2025 peak suggests that the current bear market may extend until around October 2026. This forecast aligns with past Bitcoin bear markets' durations, which typically span close to one year, indicating that investors may need to brace for a prolonged period of subdued price performance before a recovery becomes viable.
As of the latest market data, Bitcoin is priced at $82,387, reflecting a 2.69% decrease. This decline aligns with the broader cyclical and liquidity factors shaping its current trajectory.