Bitcoin has been hovering close to the $90,000 support zone while analysts warn of potential downside if market conditions shift. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone has cautioned that Bitcoin may revisit the $50,000 level in 2026, contingent on an uptick in volatility across equity markets. This forecast is grounded in an observed correlation between Bitcoin and stock market risk factors.
McGlone’s outlook is anchored in a noteworthy pattern observed in 2025 involving gold and stock market volatility. During this period, gold experienced its quickest rally since 1979, yet stock volatility remained unusually low. Historically, such a combination has tended to precede heightened market upheaval. The unusual dynamic of rising gold prices amid suppressed volatility suggests that volatility may not remain subdued much longer.
The strategist reasons that if volatility returns with force to equity markets in 2026, Bitcoin, often traded as a risk asset, will likely decline in tandem with stocks. The $50,000 price point for Bitcoin is described as an "enduring pivot," representing a significant support level that has held firm through prior market cycles. To avoid slipping to this threshold, the current low levels of stock market volatility would need to persist, a scenario McGlone views as less probable in light of the ongoing gold rally.
In essence, McGlone posits that Bitcoin’s price action tends to mirror that of equities during periods of market uncertainty. Should equities face sell-offs due to rising volatility, Bitcoin could experience a similar negative trajectory. The spike in gold prices observed in 2025 is interpreted as a harbinger of an impending rise in market volatility, expected to materialize during 2026.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s recent price movements corroborate concerns about weakening momentum. After rallying approximately 11.5% from a November low near $80,576 to just above $94,000 in early January, Bitcoin reversed sharply, falling roughly $4,100 within a three-day span. This descent breached a wedge pattern that had served as price support since December, signaling the failure of an anticipated bullish continuation.
Additional technical indicators underscore this vulnerability. Bitcoin’s price broke below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $90,868 and is currently testing the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $89,946, which stands as a critical support level before lower price territories might be reached. The Supertrend indicator remains bearish, with a resistance level around $95,121, comfortably above current trading levels.
Higher timeframe EMAs continue to act as strong resistance barriers: the 50-day EMA at $91,616, the 100-day EMA at $96,402, and the 200-day EMA near $100,012. Multiple unsuccessful attempts to reclaim the roughly $94,000 level have led to the formation of a lower high structure, further confirming the deteriorating upward momentum.
McGlone’s projected $50,000 target implies a decline of approximately 44% from present price levels. However, he emphasizes that this is not a prediction of a crash but rather a potential reversion to a historical support pivot point.
Key price levels to monitor include an immediate support at $89,946 represented by the 20-day EMA, with the next support at the 0.236 Fibonacci level around $86,934. Should the price fall below $86,000, it may target the November low of $80,576, with further downside extensions in the $76,000 to $78,000 range possible.
On the upside, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the 50-day EMA at $91,616 to stabilize the near-term trend. Resistance levels beyond that include $94,007, corresponding to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, followed by the 100-day EMA at $96,402. Surpassing the 200-day EMA near $100,000 would be necessary to restore a bullish structure and potentially signal a reversal of current weakness.