February 6, 2026
Finance

Bitcoin Surges Amid Record U.S. Layoffs Prompting Recession Speculation

High January Job Cuts Boost Expectations for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts, Impacting Bitcoin's Recovery Potential

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Summary

In January, U.S. companies announced the highest level of planned layoffs since 2009, with job cuts tripling month-over-month. This surge has heightened speculation that the Federal Reserve may need to lower interest rates to sustain economic growth. Bitcoin, which has dropped nearly 50% from its peak, responded with a 6% price increase, buoyed by hopes of monetary easing. However, multiple resistance levels and bearish momentum highlight the challenges ahead for a sustained rally.

Key Points

January 2026 saw U.S. announced layoffs surge to over 108,000 jobs, the highest level since 2009 and a 205% increase from December 2025.
Technology sector companies, including Amazon and UPS, accounted for a large portion of layoffs, reflecting sector-specific strains.
Private data suggests a weakening labor market preceding official statistics, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts.
Bitcoin price increased 6% following layoffs and inflation data indicating disinflation, but significant resistance levels and bearish momentum imply ongoing volatility.

Recent figures reveal that U.S. businesses declared plans to eliminate 108,435 jobs in January, marking a staggering 205% increase from December and the highest monthly total since 2009. This data, compiled by the outplacement services firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, also shows a year-over-year rise of 118% in planned layoffs, indicating notable softening in the labor market's stability.

The technology sector has been disproportionately affected by these workforce reductions, with Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) announcing 22,291 job cuts, while United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) plans a more substantial reduction of 31,243 positions. According to Andy Challenger of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, January’s figure is particularly high given that most layoffs were budgeted near the end of 2025, suggesting that companies are preparing for economic headwinds through 2026.

This uptick in announced layoffs stands in contrast to the more resilient labor picture portrayed by official reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which have yet to fully reflect these emerging vulnerabilities. Private data sources, however, are increasingly signaling early indications of a downturn in the employment landscape before any official adjustments appear.


The surge in layoffs is fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to loosen monetary policy by lowering interest rates in order to support economic stability. Real-time inflation tracking by blockchain platform Truflation has revealed a decline in inflation rates below 1%, despite the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining above the Fed's 2% inflation target.

These developments together point to slowing growth and a trend of disinflation that might prompt the Fed to consider cutting interest rates. Such a shift in policy expectations is having a tangible impact on financial markets, particularly in the cryptocurrency space where Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has experienced a notable price movement. Bitcoin's market value, which has fallen roughly 50% from its all-time high above $126,000, rallied by 6% following these signals.

Expectations about Federal Reserve actions vary significantly among financial institutions. For example, JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) projects rates to stay steady throughout 2026 with a potential increase in 2027. Other banking analysts forecast at least two 25 basis-point rate reductions over the current year. Additionally, some economists speculate on a more aggressive easing, including a 100 basis-point cut before the November midterm elections if a new Fed chair nominated by then-President Trump, Kevin Warsh, assumes the role.


The recent 6% uptick in Bitcoin price reflects a technical bounce from critically oversold conditions, having tested support levels in the $60,000 to $62,000 range. Despite this recovery, the cryptocurrency still faces significant technical challenges. Major resistance now lies in the $75,000 to $80,000 zone — the price range Bitcoin previously declined from during its last downturn. This area, which once functioned as support, has reversed to act as a barrier to upside momentum.

Above this zone, the $89,070 level presents an additional significant resistance hurdle. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator currently at 25.14, signals that Bitcoin is rebounding from deep oversold status, which explains the current relief rally. Nonetheless, the RSI remains well below the neutral 50-mark, reflecting an overall bearish momentum in the market.

On the downside, if the recent bounce does not hold, Bitcoin’s next support zones are $50,000 to $55,000, followed by a critical floor near $43,000. A more severe decline would bring it towards $32,851, which would represent a catastrophic breakdown scenario for the cryptocurrency.

Market participants are closely monitoring these price and technical developments as Bitcoin attempts to stabilize amid broader economic uncertainty influenced by labor market conditions and Federal Reserve policy outlooks.

Risks
  • Discrepancy between private and official employment data creates uncertainty about the labor market’s true state.
  • Federal Reserve rate cut expectations are highly divergent, complicating forecasts for economic and asset price responses.
  • Bitcoin’s technical rebound may fail to sustain above critical resistance zones, risking further price declines.
  • Potential for continued economic weakening despite relief rallies introduces unpredictability for investors in risk assets.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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BTC - positive AMZN - negative UPS - negative JPM - neutral
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