Bitcoin (BTC) achieved significant gains during the recent weekend trading session, jumping more than 5% and advancing back above the $93,000 mark. However, some market observers have sought to link this momentum to political events unfolding in Venezuela, particularly attributing Bitcoin's rally to potential consequences for global oil supply and inflation dynamics. Ryan Rasmussen, the Head of Research at Bitwise Invest, challenges this narrative, emphasizing that such associations between geopolitical developments and Bitcoin pricing lack evidentiary support from the market's interest rate expectations.
Rasmussen points out that market-implied probabilities for Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments remain virtually unchanged in the aftermath of Venezuelan political events such as Nicolás Maduro’s capture. Specifically, the likelihood of 25-basis-point rate cuts projected for January and December of 2026 stayed steady, while short-term rate cut probabilities slightly declined. This indicates that the market’s outlook on monetary policy has not shifted meaningfully due to the Venezuela situation.
Given this, Rasmussen asserts that Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are fuelled by deeper, structural elements within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and broader financial markets rather than headline-driven macroeconomic speculation. He underscores several key factors underpinning Bitcoin’s recent strength:
- Expansion of Institutional Engagement: Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have gained accelerated acceptance among prominent financial entities such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch. These institutions are injecting new capital into Bitcoin, signaling a maturing investment landscape and growing confidence in the asset’s legitimacy.
- Anticipated Regulatory Environment Favoring Cryptocurrencies: The regulatory landscape is expected to become more supportive of pro-crypto policies post-2024, attracting long-term investors who seek clarity and consistent governance of digital assets.
- Renewed Market Risk Appetite Driven by Artificial Intelligence: Advances in AI technologies have fostered a risk-on sentiment across multiple asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, further bolstering demand and investment enthusiasm.
- Pre-Existing Monetary Policy Expectations: Market participants had already priced in significant monetary easing measures anticipated in 2026 well before recent Venezuelan events, implying that Bitcoin’s rally was not a reaction to new macroeconomic information related to oil supply or inflation.
Rasmussen’s outlook further highlights his December 2025 forecast in which he projected Bitcoin would disrupt the traditional four-year price cycle by reaching new all-time highs. He also anticipated that 2026 would serve as a year for price consolidation or pullback, based on his comprehensive analysis of market dynamics. Another notable expectation is that ETFs are likely to absorb more than 100% of the incremental supply issuances of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, reflecting intensifying institutional demand and suggesting a structural tightening of available assets for purchase outside ETF vehicles.
This perspective invites a reassessment of narratives that directly connect Bitcoin’s price action to short-term geopolitical disruptions and shifts in commodity markets. Instead, it frames the cryptocurrency’s performance within the context of sustained adoption trends, regulatory progress, and evolving investment strategies. As the crypto market continues to integrate with broader financial systems, understanding these underlying drivers is critical for accurate risk assessment and strategic positioning.