February 10, 2026
Finance

BP Shares Decline Following Strategic Shift to Debt Reduction Amid Mixed Quarterly Results

Energy Giant Prioritizes Balance Sheet Strength Over Buybacks Despite Earnings Beat

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Summary

BP p.l.c. experienced a notable decline in its stock value on Tuesday, driven by the company's announcement to halt share repurchases and focus on debt reduction. This strategic pivot accompanies quarterly earnings that marginally outpaced analyst forecasts in earnings per share but fell short in revenue. BP's broader plan includes sizable asset disposals and portfolio streamlining, aiming to strengthen its financial position and drive long-term value amid ongoing operational adjustments.

Key Points

BP announced suspension of share buybacks to focus on reducing net debt, signaling a shift in capital allocation strategy.
The company reported adjusted earnings per share slightly above expectations but missed revenue forecasts for the quarter.
BP's Oil Production & Operations segment profit declined due to lower realizations and equity income, while Gas & Low Carbon Energy saw significant losses before adjustments.
BP disclosed a $20 billion asset disposal program and a joint venture with Corteva to produce sustainable fuels, aligning with broader strategic refinements.

BP p.l.c., traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker BP, encountered a decrease in its stock price on Tuesday as the company declared a suspension of its stock buyback program. Instead, BP plans to allocate excess cash flow towards reducing its debt, signaling a commitment to a more pronounced balance sheet improvement. This decision came despite the company reporting adjusted earnings per American depositary share (ADS) slightly above consensus expectations, while total revenue fell short of forecasts.

For the quarter, BP delivered an adjusted earnings figure of 60 cents per ADS, narrowly surpassing the anticipated 59 cents, indicating modest profitability gains. However, total revenue reached $47.38 billion, which, although representing an increase from $45.75 billion a year prior, did not meet the analyst estimate of $49.36 billion. The company also reported a loss attributable to its shareholders amounting to $3.42 billion, compared to a $2.0 billion loss recorded in the equivalent quarter last year, reflecting ongoing financial pressures.

The replacement cost (RC) profit, a key profitability measure for BP, stood at $1.54 billion for the quarter. This value shows improvement from the prior year's $1.17 billion, underscoring operational profitability despite challenges. Operational cash flow totaled $7.60 billion, marking a slight increase from the previous year's $7.43 billion, providing the company with cash to manage expenditures and strategic initiatives.

Capital expenditures during the quarter were substantial at $4.17 billion, while divestments and other asset-related proceeds amounted to $3.6 billion. At the quarter's end, BP's net debt was recorded at $22.2 billion, highlighting the level of leverage the company plans to address by prioritizing debt reduction.

Performance Across Business Segments

Within BP's operational segments, the Oil Production & Operations division registered a replacement cost profit before interest and tax of $1.7 billion. After accounting for a $200 million negative impact from adjusting items, the underlying profit for this segment decreased to $2.0 billion. This decline is attributed to lower pricing realizations, shifts in production mix, and a reduced share of income from equity-accounted entities.

The Gas & Low Carbon Energy segment faced a challenging quarter, reporting a $2.2 billion replacement cost loss before interest and tax, mainly due to decreased realizations. However, following adjustments totaling $3.6 billion, the segment rebounded to an underlying profit of $1.4 billion.

BP's Customers & Products segment posted a replacement cost profit before interest and tax of $1.4 billion. Adjusting for $100 million in impacts, the underlying profit for this segment was $1.3 billion. This performance was tempered by expected seasonal volume declines and underperformance in midstream operations.

Management's Strategic Outlook

Carol Howle, who currently serves as interim chief executive officer of BP, emphasized the company's decisive efforts to enhance its portfolio and fortify its financial condition. She highlighted the $20 billion disposal program underway and the suspension of share repurchases, aiming to direct all excess cash towards debt reduction. These moves are intended to underpin long-term value creation, especially through opportunities in the upstream business, such as the promising Bumerangue discovery in Brazil, estimated to contain about 8 billion barrels of liquids in place.

Looking ahead, BP anticipates welcoming Meg O’Neill as the new CEO in April. The leadership transition is expected to accelerate the company's efforts to build a simpler, stronger, and more valuable BP in the future.

Recent Developments and Partnerships

In a notable asset management decision, BP completed the sale of a controlling interest in its Castrol lubricants business for $10.1 billion in December 2025, streamlining its portfolio in line with its strategic objectives.

Moreover, in January 2026, BP announced a joint venture with Corteva, Inc. to produce crop-based oils derived from canola, mustard, and sunflower seeds. This initiative targets sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel (RD) production, marking BP's commitment to low-carbon energy solutions and collaboration within the evolving energy landscape.

Shareholder Considerations

BP declared a quarterly dividend to shareholders amounting to 8.32 cents per ordinary share. Concurrent with the suspension of share buybacks, the company withdrew its previous guidance of distributing 30% to 40% of operating cash flow to shareholders, focusing instead on deleveraging efforts to solidify its financial foundation.

Outlook for the Near and Long Term

For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, BP expects reported upstream production to maintain levels comparable to the fourth quarter of 2025. Customer-facing businesses are likely to encounter typical seasonal reductions in volume. In the Products segment, industry refining margins are anticipated to weaken, although this impact should be partly mitigated by a decrease in refinery turnaround activities. Capital expenditures for the first quarter are projected to align with the previous quarter's spending.

Regarding the full year 2026, BP forecasts capital expenditure in the range of $13 billion to $13.5 billion. Reported upstream production is expected to experience a slight decline, while underlying upstream production should remain broadly stable relative to 2025. The company anticipates that oil production and operations will sustain flat underlying output, whereas gas and low carbon energy production is projected to decrease over the period.

Financial obligations include estimated Gulf of America settlement payments of approximately $1.6 billion pre-tax for 2026, with about $0.4 billion due in the first quarter and roughly $1.1 billion in the second quarter. BP has reiterated its objective to reduce net debt to a range of $14 billion to $18 billion by the end of 2027, affirming its commitment to bolstering financial health.

Market Reaction

Following these disclosures, BP's stock dropped by over 5% to $37.22 in premarket trading on the day of the announcement. This decline reflects investor response to the suspension of share buybacks and emphasis on debt reduction, as well as the mixed financial results and future guidance shared by the company.

Risks
  • BP's decision to halt buybacks may affect shareholder returns and market perception negatively, potentially impacting stock valuation.
  • Revenue falling short of analyst projections highlights ongoing challenges in achieving growth amidst market conditions.
  • Underlying losses in the Gas & Low Carbon Energy segment before adjustments indicate vulnerability in parts of BP's energy transition portfolio.
  • Significant settlement payments and capital expenditures projected for 2026 could constrain cash flow availability and pressure financial metrics.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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