Throughout 2025, the investment landscape experienced notable shifts as gold prices dramatically increased while Bitcoin faced a decline. Specifically, gold, tracked by the NYSE-listed GLD ETF, appreciated approximately 65%, advancing from near $1,600 in October 2022 to a peak above $4,660 earlier this year. In contrast, Bitcoin, designated by the ticker BTC, saw a decrease of 6% over the same period.
Despite gold’s impressive gains, Cathie Wood, the Chief Executive Officer of ARK Invest, projects a reversal of fortunes in 2026, with Bitcoin emerging as the superior performer. Wood bases her thesis on the unprecedented valuation levels gold has achieved, with its price relative to the money supply reaching heights not witnessed in over a century. The only comparable historical period occurred during the Great Depression in the 1930s, underscoring the extraordinary nature of current gold pricing.
Wood draws attention to the gold-to-money-supply ratio, noting it recently surpassed its prior apex in 1980. That year marked a period of high inflation and double-digit interest rates, often regarded as the most severe inflationary epoch in recent memory. Hence, gold is now considered more expensive relative to monetary metrics than it was during that major inflation crisis.
Historical precedent is central to Wood’s cautionary stance on gold. After gold reached lofty valuations in both 1934 and 1980, equities delivered substantial returns in the ensuing decades: a 670% gain over 35 years following 1934, and a 1,015% climb over 21 years after 1980. These figures suggest that extended periods of gold overvaluation have historically preceded significant stock market rallies.
Wood summarizes this view succinctly, warning that gold currently appears costly and that equities may be poised for substantial appreciation, implying a potential rotation from precious metals back to stocks.
Turning to Bitcoin, Wood outlines why she anticipates its performance will outshine gold in the upcoming year. Since October 2022, Bitcoin has actually surged by roughly 360%, far outperforming gold’s percentage gain over the same timeframe. However, this strong run preceded the 2025 correction of about 6%.
A critical distinction between Bitcoin and gold is their supply dynamics. Gold miners typically respond to price increases by extracting more gold, which can contribute to longer-term supply increases. Bitcoin, conversely, operates on a fixed issuance schedule governed by its underlying code, limiting annual supply growth to approximately 0.82% for the next two years before declining to roughly 0.41% annually thereafter.
This enforced scarcity is a crucial factor Wood emphasizes, particularly as demand for Bitcoin intensifies. The fixed supply growth prevents dilution and can enhance Bitcoin’s value proposition relative to supply-responsive assets like gold.
Another key aspect is Bitcoin’s low correlation with traditional asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and even gold. Wood highlights that Bitcoin often moves independently, especially during crashes in other assets, thereby functioning as a unique diversification tool. She notes Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is lower than the S&P 500’s correlation with bonds, indicating Bitcoin may provide a superior hedge for investors seeking to reduce portfolio risk.
Wood advocates for including Bitcoin as a strategic allocation for asset managers aiming to optimize returns relative to risk in coming years. She suggests Bitcoin offers a differentiated risk-return profile that could enhance portfolio performance through its role as a non-correlated asset.
On technical analysis grounds, gold recently declined 0.70% after reaching new all-time highs exceeding $4,660. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,470 has consistently acted as dynamic support during its rally, with the Supertrend indicator at $4,366 serving as a secondary safeguard below that. Key support levels to monitor include these technical points, with the critical break below $4,300 potentially threatening the entire uptrend.
Resistance for gold is currently established at the prior highs around $4,660, with further resistance in the $4,700 to $4,800 band. Surpassing $4,800 would psychologically open the door for a reach toward $5,000.
Bitcoin’s price action in contrast has been range-bound between $88,000 and $97,000 for approximately two weeks, consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern. The price remains just below the 100 EMA at $95,963 and the 200 EMA at $99,502, unable to reclaim ground toward those levels despite repeated efforts.
This pattern appears poised to resolve soon, with buying support emerging near $92,000 and resistance consistently met near $97,000. Key technical support zones include the clustered 20 and 50 EMA near $92,050 and the Parabolic SAR indicator at about $91,024. Breaching the $88,000 support threshold could precipitate a sharp decline toward the $84,000 to $85,000 range.
On the upside, clearing the 100 EMA resistance zone at $95,963 and then the 200 EMA at $99,502 could pave the way for a run into the $103,000 to $105,000 price bracket.
In summary, the contrasting behaviors and fundamentals of gold and Bitcoin present differing investment opportunities heading into 2026. With gold at historic valuation extremes, historical patterns suggest future headwinds. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s capped supply and portfolio diversification benefits provide a compelling case for investors considering long-term growth potential.