Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) recently released its fourth-quarter earnings figures, which aligned with market projections but did not demonstrate significant improvement or a turnaround in business metrics, according to Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi. Maintaining a Neutral/Sector Perform rating on the stock, Yaghi adjusted his price target downward from $37.50 to $35.25, reflecting ongoing competitive and operational pressures.
The broadband segment remains under considerable strain as Comcast contends with aggressive competition from fiber-optic providers and fixed wireless access (FWA) services. Yaghi observed that Comcast's strategic choice to eschew price increases in favor of emphasizing lower-cost broadband plans has exerted downward pressure on broadband ARPU, a trend he anticipates will worsen in the near term before any potential stabilization.
This evolving landscape prompted the analyst to moderate his price forecast and express caution in forecasting a definitive recovery. He underscored the likelihood that EBITDA challenges within Comcast's Connectivity & Platforms division will persist for several additional quarters. During the reported quarter, Comcast experienced a net loss of 181,000 broadband customers, marking an increase in negative subscriber trends compared to the prior year. This decrease is linked to the company's migration toward a simplified pricing and packaging model, which bundles offerings such as a free wireless line and guarantees pricing stability for five years.
While this new pricing approach has helped to curb voluntary customer churn and encouraged users to adopt higher internet speeds, Yaghi pointed out that it has increased financial burdens for the company. The analyst illustrated this by citing a modest annual broadband ARPU growth of just 1%, coupled with heightened expenditures on customer experience enhancements and marketing efforts. These combined factors contributed to a 4% decline in year-over-year EBITDA within the Connectivity & Platforms segment.
Looking ahead, Yaghi projected that operational conditions will likely deteriorate before improvement takes hold. His expectations include continued ARPU declines and EBITDA pressures peaking around mid-2026, coinciding with Comcast’s sustained pause on price increases and ongoing expansion of free wireless promotional offers. He identifies the second half of 2026 as a potential turning point, when the company is anticipated to phase out the current pricing model and convert most free wireless lines into paying accounts.
Examining Comcast’s content-related ventures, Yaghi indicated that EBITDA performance in Studios and Media sectors weighed on overall results. The studio division faced challenging year-over-year comparisons due to a stronger film slate in the prior period, as well as timing mismatches related to licensing agreements and elevated marketing expenses. Similarly, the Media segment’s EBITDA contracted, mainly driven by the costs associated with recently acquired NBA broadcasting rights.
These content-related headwinds were partially offset by encouraging performance in Comcast’s Theme Parks operations. Increased attendance and elevated guest spending, including metrics from the Epic Universe attraction, contributed positively to the division’s outcomes. For 2026, Yaghi sees Theme Parks continuing as a robust segment and forecasts improving conditions for Peacock, Comcast’s streaming platform. He cited expectations that Peacock's monetization efforts will strengthen as the service scales, which could help balance ongoing investments, including the full-year impact of NBA rights.
Anticipating the company’s financial trajectory, Yaghi projected a total revenue figure of $125.41 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $3.72 for the 2026 fiscal year.
At the time of publication, Comcast shares were trading at $29.41, registering a modest increase of 0.62%, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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