Cryptocurrency Markets Predict Over 50% Chance of U.S. Strike on Iran as Americans Urged to Evacuate

The probability that the United States will undertake a military strike against Iran within this month has risen above 50%, according to recent trading activity on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform. This surge correlates closely with a formal advisory issued by the U.S. government, instructing Americans to leave Iran without delay amid intensifying civil unrest and government crackdowns. As of the latest data, the odds pegged by participants betting on Polymarket that a U.S. military strike will occur by January 31 have climbed to 54%. This figure represents a 9-percentage-point increase over the past 24 hours alone. The chances of such an action happening by January 23 have similarly jumped, advancing from 29% to 43% in the same timeframe. This prominence in speculation is backed by approximately $13.7 million wagered on the outcome. Polymarket’s particular market in question resolves affirmatively only if the United States initiates a military strike on Iranian soil involving drones, missiles, or air assaults. Notably, any missile or drone attack that is intercepted and does not reach its target is excluded from triggering a “yes” resolution. The platform itself is built on Polygon blockchain technology with the symbol POL, and it has drawn some criticism in prior instances for creating markets that capitalize on geopolitical conflicts and hostilities. Parallel to these military action predictions, the odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, being ousted from power by month’s end remain comparatively low, estimated at approximately 20% at present. The increased market activity follows closely on an official communication from the U.S. Virtual Embassy in Iran. Unlike traditional embassies, this virtual diplomatic entity serves as an advisory and outreach conduit in absence of a formal diplomatic relationship between Washington and Tehran. The advisory underscores significant risks faced by U.S. nationals residing in or traveling through Iran, particularly noting the potential for questioning, detention, and arrest by Iranian authorities. The advisory explicitly warns that carrying a U.S. passport or having any apparent links with the United States could be sufficient cause for detainment. The backdrop to these developments involves ongoing protests inside Iran, which have entered their sixteenth day and have resulted in substantial casualties. According to reports from the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a U.S.-based nonprofit organization monitoring the unrest, at least 656 individuals have died since the demonstrations began. Of these casualties, 505 are identified as protesters. The Iranian government alleges that external forces provoke these riots, which initially emerged from widespread public dissatisfaction with the country's deteriorating economic conditions, including the precipitous fall of the national currency and soaring inflation. Within the context of this unrest, the current U.S. administration is considering a range of responses, including the possibility of military intervention. Tehran has issued statements expressing both a readiness to engage in armed conflict if necessary and an openness to entering negotiations. The uncertainty surrounding the regime's next moves contributes to the fluid and tense diplomatic situation. Investors and observers continue to watch both the prediction markets and official statements closely, gauging the trajectory of U.S.-Iran relations and the potential implications of any military action or political upheaval. The evolving advisory warnings for American citizens underscore the seriousness with which the U.S. government views Iranian domestic developments and their wider geopolitical repercussions.