February 3, 2026
Finance

DaVita Shares Climb Following Strong Q4 Results and Optimistic 2026 Forecast

Kidney care company surpasses earnings estimates and projects higher adjusted income amid stable treatment volumes

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Summary

DaVita Inc. experienced a notable increase in its stock price after releasing financial results for the fourth quarter that exceeded analyst expectations. The company also presented a confident outlook for fiscal year 2026, anticipating growth in adjusted earnings per share and operating income, supported by steady revenue per treatment and controlled cost increases. Alongside the earnings report, DaVita disclosed a minority investment in Elara Caring, which is expected to positively influence income streams.

Key Points

DaVita exceeded Q4 earnings estimates with adjusted EPS of $3.40 and revenues of $3.62 billion, up 5.8% year over year.
Revenue per treatment increased due to higher reimbursement rates and adjustments in the ESRD payment system bundle.
Treatment volumes remained relatively flat with a slight normalized decline of 0.6%.
DaVita anticipates FY 2026 adjusted EPS between $13.60 and $15.00, with operating income forecasted between $2.09 billion and $2.24 billion.

DaVita Inc. (NYSE: DVA) witnessed a significant uptick in its stock valuation on Tuesday, driven by the announcement of its fourth-quarter financial results that outperformed market expectations. The firm also provided an encouraging forecast for fiscal 2026, signaling robust financial health and operational stability within the kidney care sector.

Robust Fourth-Quarter Performance

During the final quarter of 2025, DaVita delivered adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.40, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.16. Total sales revenue reached $3.62 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.8% and outperforming the projected $3.497 billion figure.

The company reported that revenue generated on a per-treatment basis climbed from $410.59 to $422.60. This quarterly rise was attributed predominantly to higher average reimbursement rates, routine fluctuations in revenue mix, and seasonal influences such as the administration of flu vaccines. Over the course of the year, this metric benefitted from the inclusion of phosphate binders within the End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Prospective Payment System bundle and incremental annual increases in reimbursement rates, particularly those linked to the Medicare base rate.

Regarding patient volume, DaVita's data shows a total of 7,264,520 treatments rendered across the United States in the fourth quarter of 2025, averaging 91,608 treatments per day. This represents a slight per-day decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. When normalized to exclude treatments obtained through acquisitions, the growth rate was negative 0.6% compared to the same period in 2024.

On the cost side, expenses related to patient care increased, with costs per treatment rising from $273.54 to $279.60. This escalation primarily stems from higher health benefit expenses coupled with rising prices for medical supplies.

Financial Outlook and Guidance for 2026

Looking ahead, DaVita projected its adjusted EPS for fiscal 2026 to range between $13.60 and $15.00. This forecast exceeds the consensus estimate of $12.65 per share. Additionally, the company expects adjusted operating income to fall within the $2.09 billion to $2.24 billion bracket.

The guidance presumes treatment volumes will remain approximately flat relative to 2025 figures. Management anticipates revenue per treatment will increase by about 1% to 2%, while cost growth is forecasted to be between 1.25% and 2.25%.

“We also expect an estimated $40 million headwind from the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits for exchange plans, which is largely offset by the elimination of the $45 million headwind in 2025 from the cyber incident,” noted CFO Joel Ackerman during the earnings call with investors.

Strategic Minority Investment

Alongside its earnings announcement, DaVita disclosed participation in a minority equity investment in Elara Caring, a provider specializing in skilled home health, hospice, behavioral health, and personal care services. This investment, conducted jointly with Ares' Private Equity Group, amounts to approximately $200 million.

According to Ackerman, this minority stake is projected to contribute positively to DaVita's 'other income' category. The company expects the transaction to close during 2026.

Market and Analyst Reaction

Barclays maintained its Equal-Weight rating on DaVita shares and increased its price target from $143 to $158, reflecting greater confidence in the company’s financial trajectory.

Following the earnings release and accompanying updates, DaVita's stock price climbed sharply, recording a 21.69% gain to close at $135.31 according to Benzinga Pro data on Tuesday.

Summary and Implications

DaVita's performance in the fourth quarter of 2025 indicates a solid operational footing with revenue growth driven mainly by reimbursement rate increases and stable treatment volumes. Despite minor decreases in treatment counts and rising costs per treatment, the company’s ability to exceed earnings expectations and offer optimistic guidance suggests resilience amid market and regulatory pressures.

  • Key Financial Metrics: Adjusted EPS of $3.40 in Q4, beating estimates; 5.8% year-over-year revenue growth to $3.62 billion.
  • Revenue Drivers: Increased reimbursement rates, ESRD bundle adjustments, and seasonal factors contributed to revenue per treatment growth.
  • Operational Volumes: Treatment volume largely stable with a slight decline on a normalized basis.
  • Cost Trends: Rising health benefit and supply costs pushed patient care costs per treatment higher.
  • Outlook: Positive fiscal 2026 outlook with higher adjusted earnings and operating income projections, stabilized treatment volumes, and controlled cost growth.
  • Risks and Uncertainties: The company faces headwinds from the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits and potential fluctuations in treatment volumes.
  • Continued increases in health benefit and medical supply expenses could pressure margins if not managed effectively.
  • Potential impacts from external factors such as regulatory changes or market shifts remain uncertain.

Overall, DaVita’s financial results and strategic moves, including the minority investment, position it for measured growth as it navigates the evolving dialysis services market.

Risks
  • Estimated $40 million earnings headwind from the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits for exchange plans.
  • Rising patient care costs per treatment, driven by increased health benefit and medical supply expenses.
  • Potential challenges in maintaining or growing treatment volumes amid market or regulatory pressures.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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