As early as 2026, various prediction markets have begun to reflect public opinion on potential contenders for the 2028 U.S. Presidential elections. These markets, which allow bettors to wager on election outcomes, provide a unique, data-driven perspective on who investors believe stands the best chance in the upcoming race.
One such platform, Kalshi, a federally authorized venue for event-based trading, has recorded over $8.5 million in bets on the category "Next U.S. Presidential Election Winner?" This volume spotlights significant public engagement and interest in the election's prospective field nearly two years ahead.
According to data aggregated from Kalshi, Vice President J.D. Vance currently holds the front-runner position with a 28% market probability of clinching the presidency in 2028. Closely trailing is Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, positioned as the leading Democratic figure with a 20% likelihood according to bettors. Third on the list, with a 10% probability, stands Secretary of State Marco Rubio, suggesting his prominence as a potential candidate.
The early betting data suggests that political bettors are focusing predominantly on these three candidates, reflecting ongoing political developments and public profiles. Vance's position as vice president likely solidifies his perceived candidacy strength, while Newsom's executive role in California positions him from a major Democratic stronghold. Rubio’s role as Secretary of State maintains his visibility and competitiveness on the national stage.
Additionally, the political environment is being shaped by endorsements and expressions of support that cross traditional party lines. Former Donald Trump administration member Anthony Scaramucci has publicly indicated his potential backing of Gavin Newsom for the 2028 election. This noteworthy endorsement comes despite Scaramucci's Republican background and reflects his criticisms of former President Trump.
The field is expected to become more competitive and multifaceted as other political figures weigh their options. Notably, Steve Bannon is contemplating a presidential run, which, if realized, could intensify competition particularly within factions aligned with the MAGA movement. This development might influence the dynamics for candidates like J.D. Vance, potentially creating intra-party challenges.
Underlying these developments is a notable shift in voter demographics and preferences. Younger voters are increasingly aligning with left-leaning policies and have expressed disapproval of Trump's previous performance in office. This trend may affect the election calculus and the strategies of candidates across the political spectrum.
Meanwhile, other political figures such as Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene have publicly dismissed intentions to pursue presidential ambitions, instead choosing to focus on their current congressional roles. This selective engagement suggests strategic positioning among various politicians as the 2028 race begins to take shape.
Overall, while the presidential race is still distant, early indications from prediction markets and political endorsements foreshadow a competitive and evolving 2028 election cycle. These platforms, amplified by notable public interest and millions of dollars wagered, provide an intriguing preliminary gauge of candidate viability and political momentum well before official campaigns commence.