President Donald Trump has introduced a proposal to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, utilizing authority linked to government-sponsored entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This initiative aims to stimulate the mortgage market, but leading economists have expressed significant reservations about its potential long-term impact on the housing market and broader economy.
Economist Mohamed El-Erian highlighted the political dimensions of this plan, emphasizing that it reactivates concerns regarding political interference in monetary policy. By leveraging powers granted during the 2008 conservatorship of Fannie Mae (OTC:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC:FMCC), the proposed measure could extend political influence beyond traditional interest rate adjustments to direct asset purchases, a phenomenon El-Erian refers to as “People’s QE.” This form of quantitative easing involves the government acquiring financial assets to inject liquidity, effectively funding public spending through monetary means.
El-Erian cautioned markets to recognize two key points arising from this approach. First, political pressures on the Federal Reserve are expanding to include asset purchases beyond mere rate cuts. Second, the public’s growing dissatisfaction with housing affordability is driving political urgency, which may prompt increasingly interventionist policies in monetary and housing markets. Such interventions come with risks, especially if not carefully calibrated to market conditions.
Further critique from economist Peter Schiff centers on the unintended consequences of diverting $200 billion to mortgage bond purchases. In his analysis, Schiff outlines that this allocation reduces available capital to purchase U.S. Treasury securities. Though temporarily beneficial in lowering mortgage rates, Schiff warns that this reallocation could fuel increases in Treasury yields and overall inflation long term, potentially destabilizing the broader economy.
Schiff also identifies a fundamental disconnect in the housing market's core challenges. He argues that restrictive policies focusing only on mortgage rates overlook the primary issue: inflated home prices. By channeling government credit into the mortgage sector, the proposal risks propelling buyers to stretch their finances and overpay for properties. This dynamic, according to Schiff, may exacerbate the housing affordability crisis rather than alleviate it, undermining the initiative’s stated objectives.
Echoing the concerns over the unconventional nature of this intervention, Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, noted its atypical timing and rationale. Unlike previous quantitative easing cycles orchestrated by the Federal Reserve during major financial upheavals such as the 2008 crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, the current economic environment exhibits relative stability. Credit markets remain healthy, and the economy shows solid activity, making this stimulus effort politically motivated rather than a response to systemic risk.
Timiraos further observed that historical Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities were executed without profit objectives, often resulting in significant losses, as seen during the pandemic-era programs. This contrasts with the current plan’s explicit political underpinnings, raising questions about its financial and policy prudence.
Following the announcement of this mortgage stimulus plan, equity markets reflected mixed sentiments in the real estate sector. Prominent real estate-related securities, including the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF (NYSE:VNQ), Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:OPEN), and others saw modest gains in after-hours trading. Specifically, VNQ rose by 0.36% overnight after a 0.89% increase the previous day, although it maintains a weak momentum profile across short-, medium-, and long-term assessments.
The equities of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac showed declines, with Fannie Mae trading at approximately $10.74 per share, down 1.01%, and Freddie Mac at about $10.14, slipping nearly 1%. These movements reflect investor caution as the market absorbs the potential implications of the federal stimulus measure tied to these institutions.