January 12, 2026
Finance

Emerging Commodity Supercycle Poised for 2026 Amid Geopolitical and Market Shifts

Analyst forecasts sustained growth in hard-asset valuations surpassing equities driven by geopolitical tensions and evolving central bank policies

Loading...
Loading quote...

Summary

An analyst highlights the initiation of a commodities supercycle in response to recent geopolitical developments, forecasting extended bullish momentum across hard assets including precious and industrial metals, and energy sectors. Valuation trends currently favor tangible asset classes over stock markets, supported by factors such as increased industrial capital expenditure focused on AI and technology, as well as shifts in monetary policy outlooks.

Key Points

Geopolitical events, specifically military action in Venezuela, have sparked a commodities rally signaling a potential new supercycle.
Macroeconomic factors such as global money supply growth and dovish central-bank policies are driving strong performance in hard assets.
Industrial metals gains are expanding beyond precious metals, with potential for growth in the energy sector as economic optimism rises for 2026.
Industry analysts recommend gold, uranium, and copper as strategic investments due to evolving policy landscapes and geopolitical risks.

Recent military actions ordered by President Donald Trump in Venezuela have ignited significant movements within the commodities market, with analysts anticipating the beginning of a new 'supercycle' that could usher in a lengthy period of growth and elevated prices.

John Velis, a macroeconomic strategist based in New York at BNY, has drawn parallels between the current commodities markets and the supercycle experienced in the early 2000s. He attributes this renewed rise in hard-asset prices to a convergence of multiple catalysts, including heightened geopolitical risks, a broad expansion in global money supply, and the prospect of more accommodative monetary policies by central banks worldwide. Alongside these elements, Velis points to the substantial increase in capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence and technology sectors as a significant driver stimulating demand for various commodities.

Velis emphasized the noticeable gains hard assets recorded since the start of the year. Beginning with a strong rally in precious metals the previous year, this momentum has now extended into industrial metals. Such growth might further broaden to encompass the energy sector as confidence in global economic expansion for 2026 picks up.

According to his analysis, current valuations suggest hard assets are undervalued relative to equities, providing compelling entry opportunities for investors. The anticipated increase in industrial demand further enhances the outlook for these tangible assets.

These developments follow earlier expert recommendations advocating for strategic allocations in commodities. For instance, Bank of America urged investors to maintain positions in gold, consider uranium investments, and acquire copper ahead of a full market repricing. Their advice stems from expectations of intensifying U.S. industrial policies, potential currency depreciation of the U.S. dollar, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties regarding trade tariffs.

Commodity specialist Lawson Winder has highlighted specific companies positioned to benefit from this commodities upswing, naming Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM), Cameco Corp. (NYSE: CCJ), and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) as top favorites. Meanwhile, finance expert Danny Moses projected that gold prices could potentially double over the coming years, a trajectory he believes has already commenced. Moses notes that gold and silver have outperformed most asset classes in 2025, suggesting a transition for precious metals from their traditional hedging role toward becoming leading assets in investment portfolios.

Supporting this outlook, Goldman Sachs has issued a cautionary note regarding ongoing extreme volatility in the silver market. They attribute this instability to a tightly constrained physical supply within London, shifts in trade routes towards the United States, and mounting geopolitical frictions that continue to unsettle markets.

As these dynamics unfold, an increased focus on the resilience and performance of hard assets versus equities remains central to investment considerations in the commodities landscape.

Risks
  • Persistent geopolitical tension could continue to introduce market volatility, especially impacting metals like silver due to supply constraints.
  • Uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade flows may affect commodity prices and investment returns.
  • Volatile physical supply chains, particularly in precious metals markets, can lead to unpredictable price movements.
  • Changes in central bank policies or unexpected shifts in economic growth forecasts could alter the currently favorable valuation environment for hard assets.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
Search Articles
Category
Finance

Financial News

Ticker Sentiment
AEM - positive CCJ - positive FCX - positive
Related Articles
Cryptocurrency Market Holds Steady Amid Anticipation of US-Iran Developments

The cryptocurrency market demonstrates a cautious stance as Bitcoin approaches the $69,000 mark. Oth...

Dow Advances More Than 200 Points as Coca-Cola Reports Varied Q4 Performance

U.S. equity markets experienced a mixed session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 20...

Comparing Precious Metals ETFs: Cost Efficiency of IAU Versus the Performance of SLV

Investors evaluating precious metals ETFs often compare the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and iShares G...

Quince Therapeutics Experiences Massive Stock Surge Amid Strategic Advisor Engagement

Shares of Quince Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:QNCX) witnessed a remarkable surge of approximately 300% f...

Quest Diagnostics Reports Strong Q4 Earnings and Raises Full-Year Guidance Driving Stock Higher

Quest Diagnostics posted fourth-quarter results surpassing both earnings and revenue expectations, d...

Fiserv Reports Mixed Q4 2025 Results; Shares Rise on Earnings Beat

Fiserv, Inc. released its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 financial results showing flat adjusted revenue...