Ethereum (ETH) has recently experienced a notable surge in active addresses, achieving a new peak of 718,000 on a 7-day simple moving average basis. This unprecedented level of network activity represents a significant increase in user participation and interaction across the Ethereum blockchain. Despite this uptick in on-chain engagement, the price of Ethereum has remained largely range-bound, exhibiting a consolidation phase with minimal breakout movement.
The contrast between the expanding active addresses and the stable price is a prime example of a bullish divergence, a phenomenon where fundamental network metrics show strength while market prices reflect hesitancy. Historically, such divergences have suggested that the underlying utility and adoption of the Ethereum network are growing ahead of corresponding price appreciation. This pattern often precedes a potential upward momentum in asset valuation as market participants begin to recognize and price in increased usage and demand.
The drivers behind this surge in network activity may include a variety of factors such as accelerated adoption of Layer-2 scaling solutions, rejuvenated decentralized finance (DeFi) engagement, or renewed interest from retail investors. The increased usage points to a vibrant and dynamic Ethereum ecosystem that has not yet been fully reflected in the current market valuation of ETH tokens.
Contrasting with the on-chain optimism, Bloomberg commodity strategist Mike McGlone has expressed cautionary views regarding Ethereum's near-term price prospects. McGlone suggested that ETH might trend toward the lower end of its established $2,000 to $4,000 trading range observed since 2023, stating that the risks of the price remaining below $2,000 surpass the possibility of breaking above $4,000, especially in the context of potential rebounds in stock market volatility. This perspective introduces a note of prudence against the backdrop of robust network activity.
From a technical analysis standpoint, Ethereum's price has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern following the decline from its November 2025 highs around $4,600. The convergence of trendlines, shaped by the recent highs and the lows recorded in December and January, signals the approach of a likely breakout, which technical analysts anticipate could occur within the next two to four weeks.
Critical moving averages provide additional insights into ETH's technical framework. The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) stands at $3,308, closely aligned with current market prices, representing an important inflection level. Trading above this average after a prolonged period below it is often interpreted as a sign of medium-term bullish momentum. Further, the 20-day EMA at $3,051 and the 50-day EMA at $3,105 have recently crossed in a bullish manner, offering dynamic support levels. Meanwhile, the 100-day EMA at $3,239 acts as immediate resistance. The Supertrend indicator, currently at $3,250, has flipped to bullish, reinforcing the indication of short-term upward momentum.
Additionally, liquidity patterns reveal that Ethereum has experienced a net outflow from exchanges totaling approximately $170.42 million since mid-2025. This sustained withdrawal of ETH from exchange wallets may reflect holders moving tokens to long-term storage or other usage, a factor often interpreted as supportive of price stability or appreciation due to diminished selling pressure.
Market participants should monitor key price levels for critical support and resistance. On the resistance side, the $3,400 to $3,450 range serves as a psychological barrier and a zone of prior consolidation. Surpassing this with substantive trading volume could open the door to a test of $3,800 levels. Above that, the $4,400 to $4,600 area corresponds with previous 2025 highs and represents robust resistance. Conversely, support is found in the $3,200 to $3,240 bracket marked by the 100-day EMA and an ascending trendline, a zone important to maintain bullish positioning. Further support clusters around the $3,000 to $3,050 range, aligning with the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, and a more critical invalidation point exists near $2,800 to $2,850 where the triangle pattern support lies.
In summary, Ethereum's network activity is reaching unprecedented levels, indicating a strong fundamental foundation despite subdued price movement. Traders and investors should approach upcoming weeks with awareness of potential volatility around these technical levels and remain mindful of broader market influences that could impact Ethereum's trajectory.