On December 31, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) achieved a daily transaction volume of 1.87 million, surpassing its previous all-time high (ATH) of 1.61 million transactions recorded in May 2021 during the NFT and DeFi boom. This spike is supported by a 7-day moving average data point and signals unprecedented network utilization in recent years, according to data compiled by The Block.
Alongside heightened transactions, Ethereum registered 728,904 active addresses—the highest figure since May 12, 2021—while also welcoming a surge of 270,160 new addresses in a single day. This influx represents the most substantial daily growth in active users for Ethereum since early 2018, indicating increased participation in its ecosystem.
Industry analysts point to several factors contributing to this surge. Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, credits recent Ethereum network upgrades that lower transaction fees and enhance scalability for attracting heightened activity. Furthermore, the implementation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) have drawn institutional investors, adding to transactional volumes.
Protocol Enhancements Accelerate Usage
Two major forthcoming upgrades named Pectra and Fusaka, slated for 2025, have played a significant role in driving this network expansion. The Pectra upgrade has enhanced blob throughput, introduced account abstraction to improve wallet usability, and increased staking limits for validators. Meanwhile, Fusaka has deployed PeerDAS technology, which optimizes data availability sampling to accommodate higher blob counts without overloading network nodes.
Complementing these changes are increased gas limits and advancements in zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine (zkEVM) technology. Collectively, these improvements have drastically reduced transaction costs and furthered Ethereum’s strategic progression towards a rollup-centric architecture.
Additional upgrades scheduled for 2026 include Glamsterdam, expected in early to mid-year, focusing on enhancing network performance and decentralization. Later, Hegota will prioritize long-term sustainability objectives, indicating a continued trajectory of protocol refinement.
Price Trends Remain Constrained Despite Fundamental Strength
Contrary to record-breaking network metrics, Ethereum’s market price remains capped beneath the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) of approximately $3,373. On the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers at 43.92—below neutral yet not reaching an oversold state, highlighting weakening momentum.
Since August 2024, repeated recovery attempts have failed to push the RSI above 60. This pattern typically signals an underlying bear market phase even amid a broader bullish structural context.
Daily price analysis reveals Ethereum testing a descending trendline within the $3,100 to $3,200 range. Price candles intermittently penetrate this resistance line but consistently experience immediate rejection, reflecting a lack of follow-through and diminished trader conviction.
Additional technical indicators, such as the Supertrend at $3,296 and the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse), function as further overhead resistance points. Without a decisive daily close above $3,200 accompanied by strong volume, attempts at breakout should be viewed with skepticism and considered prone to failure.
Outlook Hinges on Overcoming Key Technical Levels
For Ethereum bulls to regain momentum, the price must close above $3,200 on a daily timeframe and hold that level as support during any subsequent retracement. Achieving this would open pathways to targets of $3,400 and $3,600, thereby maintaining optimism for a potential rally toward $6,000.
Failure to breach this resistance—consistent with previous occurrences—would confirm the descending triangle pattern's validity, potentially precipitating a decline toward $2,800 or below. Such an outcome would significantly undermine the $6,000 price objective for the first quarter.
Weekly support levels to monitor include the 100 EMA near $3,009 and a more critical support at the 200 EMA around $2,608, which serve as important reference points for downside risk management.
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, notes Ethereum’s dominant role in various blockchain sectors including stablecoin operations, real-world asset tokenization, yield protocols, trading platforms, gaming, and NFTs. These activities predominantly take place on Ethereum or EVM-compatible chains. He opines that this landscape sets the stage for a notable breakout, contingent upon investor capitulation during the current subdued price conditions.
In summary, Ethereum’s network utilization metrics reflect robust ecosystem growth driven by impactful upgrades and increasing institutional engagement. However, this fundamental strength has not yet translated into sustained price appreciation due to persistent resistance and technical hurdles. Investors and market participants will be closely observing the ability of ETH to breach critical thresholds that may unlock bullish momentum or conversely confirm ongoing hesitation.