The 2025 federal income tax season is now underway, with taxpayers required to submit their returns by April 15. While filing federal taxes can be a cumbersome process for many U.S. residents, a majority anticipate receiving refunds following their submissions. Notably, this year, many are poised to see refunds considerably larger than typical amounts, provided their financial or household circumstances have remained relatively stable since 2024.
According to IRS data through December 26 of the prior year, the average federal tax refund stood at $3,167. Current projections from the U.S. Treasury indicate an approximate $1,000 increase in average refunds per household for the 2025 tax cycle.
Two predominant factors contribute to this anticipated rise. First, Congress enacted a series of new and expanded tax provisions effective in tax year 2025. Second, most taxpayers did not modify the tax withholding levels from their wages to reflect these legislative updates.
Tom O'Saben, director of tax content at the National Association of Tax Professionals, elaborated on these dynamics. "For taxpayers whose income, filing status, and dependents remain largely unchanged from 2024, the combination of enhanced tax benefits and unchanged withholding clearly results in increased refunds," he explained.
Delving deeper into the withholding aspect, O'Saben clarified that although the overall tax obligations for 2025 declined due to recent legal adjustments, payroll tax withholdings frequently remained at prior amounts. "This disparity means the additional tax savings materialize as refunds rather than increased periodic take-home pay," he noted. Furthermore, for individuals who typically do not receive refunds, these tax law changes may simply reduce their ultimate tax liabilities.
Key Tax Changes Driving Refund Increases
Although numerous tax modifications were introduced for the 2025 tax year—such as a new deduction for automobile loan interest, partial exclusion of tips and overtime income, and a $200 enhancement per child to the child tax credit—several specific adjustments stand out as primary contributors to the expected growth in average refund amounts.
- Higher Standard Deduction: The standard deduction, which the majority of filers claim, increased by $750 to reach $15,750 for single taxpayers, and by $1,500 to $31,500 for married couples filing jointly. O'Saben described this adjustment as "the most broadly impactful change," as it influences millions of taxpayers regardless of income bracket or filing status. Even moderate increases in this deduction translate directly to reductions in taxable income.
- Expanded SALT Deduction: For residents of states with high tax burdens, the allowable deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) increased dramatically to $40,000 from the previous $10,000 limit. This deduction encompasses income or sales taxes alongside property taxes but applies only if taxpayers opt to itemize deductions instead of taking the standard deduction. The substantial rise in the SALT cap may motivate more filers to itemize, potentially generating noticeable increases in refunds, especially if withholding has not been adjusted accordingly.
- New Senior Deduction: Designed specifically for taxpayers aged 65 and over, this income-restricted deduction permits eligible seniors to claim an additional $6,000 ($12,000 for joint filers) on top of their standard or itemized deductions. O'Saben emphasized its potential to significantly reduce tax burdens. The AARP estimates that over 30 million seniors stand to benefit from this provision.
Advising Taxpayers on Withholding Strategies
Tax refunds can be interpreted as an interest-free loan returned by the government or a forced mechanism for saving money that some taxpayers might otherwise fail to accumulate gradually. For individuals who do not consistently set aside funds, receiving a lump-sum refund may be advantageous. Conversely, others might prefer to retain more of their earnings throughout the year to earn potential interest or to accelerate debt repayment.
The Treasury reports that updated IRS withholding tables for 2026 have been adjusted to incorporate the full range of tax benefits effective in 2025. As a result, some taxpayers may observe slightly higher take-home pay starting this year. However, taxpayers consulting with financial advisors or tax professionals are encouraged to review their withholding status carefully to ensure alignment with their eligibility for the new and expanded deductions and credits.
At present, the IRS withholding estimator tool has not been updated to fully reflect the 2025 tax law modifications, which may complicate self-service attempts to adjust withholding precisely.
For those opting to modify their withholding by submitting a new W-4 form, experts advise making moderate changes rather than substantial reductions in withheld taxes. O'Saben recommends, "A modest adjustment helps avoid possible underpayment penalties while improving cash flow throughout the year." Essentially, it is prudent to reduce withholding just enough to potentially realize a small refund at tax time, rather than risk owing significant amounts due to overly aggressive withholding decreases.
In summary, unless substantial changes occur in personal finances or family composition, many U.S. taxpayers can expect their tax refunds in the 2025 filing season to be appreciably larger, driven by legislative tax breaks and unchanged payroll tax withholdings.