The capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces has sent reverberations well beyond the borders of Venezuela, sparking a wave of speculation throughout betting markets worldwide. The dramatic event, involving Maduro and his wife being flown to New York to face federal charges related to narco-terrorism, has become a significant catalyst for reassessing political risks across a diverse set of nations, from Cuba and Colombia in the Americas to Iran in the Middle East.
One of the most active responses has emerged on Polymarket, a prominent prediction market platform. On a single day, wagers exceeding one million dollars were placed on contracts related to the Iranian leadership's potential change. The market focusing on whether Ali Khamenei would be replaced as the Supreme Leader of Iran recorded an implied probability of 11% for this event occurring by January 31, escalating to 34% by June 30, 2026, and nearing 47% by the end of the same year. This steady increase in expected probability highlights the growing perception of instability surrounding the Iranian regime.
Accompanying these bets are contracts reflecting broader regional tensions. For instance, measures of the likelihood of Israel launching an attack against Iran by March 31, 2026, have also seen a surge, climbing about 22 percentage points in a single day, reaching nearly an even chance. This development suggests that participants in the betting markets are drawing connections between the Venezuelan incident and the possibility of increased geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.
The ongoing political trajectory of Venezuela post-Maduro remains one of the most intensively traded scenarios on these platforms. One specific contract, which estimates the leading political figure in Venezuela by the end of 2026, has attracted close to $895,000 in trading volume, reflecting considerable uncertainty and contestation among potential successors. Currently, Delcy Rodríguez, acting as the interim President, maintains the highest implied chance of 44%. Other contenders include opposition leaders María Corina Machado—a recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize—and Edmundo González, each holding approximately 14% and 15% implied probabilities, respectively. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López is priced with a roughly 7% chance. Media reports have further underlined this unpredictability, indicating that U.S. deliberations have considered options prioritizing stability within the Venezuelan ruling establishment.
The spotlight has also shifted toward neighboring countries Cuba and Colombia, where political dynamics have become subjects of speculation linked in part to comments made by former President Donald Trump. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump referred to the prospects of a military operation in Colombia positively, stating it "sounds good," and expressed views that Cuba is "ready to fall."
Trump's remarks, particularly his assertion that Cuba could be the next to see a leadership change, are grounded in the belief that the island heavily depends on Venezuelan economic support, including income and oil supplies that may be jeopardized. Within betting markets, contracts reflecting the possibility of Miguel Díaz-Canel losing the Cuban presidency by June 30 have seen implied probabilities around 20%, which is a significant decrease from the 61% recorded on January 3, the day Maduro's capture news broke.
In Colombia, attention has increased following Trump's proposal of "Operation Colombia" and his criticism of the country's left-wing President Gustavo Petro. Betting markets suggest approximately a 15% chance that Petro will no longer be president by the end of June, with this likelihood sharply rising to as much as 95% by the end of the year. This marked increase over a short timeframe highlights a growing anticipation of political turnover in Colombia.
These shifts in prediction markets underscore the wider impact of Venezuela's political developments on international assessments of regional stability and leadership durability. Market participants appear to be recalibrating their expectations of regime continuity and potential conflict in various countries influenced directly or indirectly by Venezuela's crisis.