Gold prices soared to a historic peak, reaching $5,311 per ounce in early trading on Wednesday. The precious metal’s performance this year has been strong, recording a 22.5% increase since the start of the year. This rally is unfolding ahead of a closely monitored Federal Reserve policy announcement, which market participants expect to maintain current interest rate levels.
The recent upswing in gold can be attributed in large part to a weakened U.S. dollar. The dollar slid to its lowest point since February 2022, a development that investors perceive as supportive for bullion prices. When questioned about this downturn in the dollar, former President Donald Trump expressed a pragmatic view. Speaking with reporters in Iowa, he acknowledged the challenges the currency faces but emphasized the strength of current business conditions, suggesting the dollar should be allowed to "seek its own level." This comment aligns with a non-interventionist stance concerning currency valuation.
As the Federal Reserve convenes, market expectations indicate a high likelihood—97.2% according to the CME FedWatch tool—that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged for now. However, investor focus is increasingly shifting beyond the immediate Fed decision, honing in on the potential policy direction once Chair Jerome Powell’s term concludes. Political pressures are reportedly mounting for a more accommodative stance from the central bank, placing markets in a somewhat cautious and defensive posture as they await Powell’s remarks.
Technically, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has breached a significant long-term uptrend around the monthly timeframe. This breakdown has contributed to the bearish momentum behind the dollar’s drop. The DXY had experienced a steady rise from its 2011 lows through much of the past decade, peaking in September 2022 amidst aggressive Fed tightening and equity market declines. Despite the apparent trend break, the finality of this movement remains to be confirmed, as monthly closing prices will ultimately determine whether this signals a permanent shift or a temporary fluctuation. The current month has three trading days left, during which some reversal remains possible according to Dow Theory standards.
Financial institutions are adjusting their outlooks on gold prices in response to these market developments. Deutsche Bank recently elevated its gold price projection for 2026 to $6,000 per ounce while noting potential scenarios where prices might reach $6,900 per ounce, reflecting the recent strong performance. Similarly, Société Générale anticipates gold reaching $6,000, and Morgan Stanley has highlighted a bullish target of $5,700. Goldman Sachs most recently raised its forecast to $5,400, citing ongoing risks related to monetary policy uncertainties, political dynamics, and currency trends that continue to benefit gold.
In the exchange-traded fund segment, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has realized a 20.13% increase year-to-date, demonstrating sustained investor interest in physical gold exposure. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX), a key vehicle for mining shares, also shows positive momentum, reflecting broader market sentiment towards gold-related equities.