In its latest outlook, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the gold price at the conclusion of 2026 to $5,400 per ounce, marking an increase from its earlier projected level of $4,900. The investment bank attributes this elevation primarily to reinforcing structural demand dynamics surrounding the precious metal over the coming years.
Central to Goldman Sachs' revised forecast is the persistent and accelerating demand from emerging-market central banks. These institutions are actively diversifying their reserve assets beyond traditional holdings such as the U.S. dollar and euro-denominated bonds. This diversification strategy is motivated by various factors, including precautionary hedging against geopolitical uncertainties, potential exposure to sanctions, as well as longer-term fiscal sustainability concerns exhibited by advanced economies.
Notably, policymakers across multiple developing economies—including China, India, Turkey, Poland, and countries situated in the Middle East and Latin America—have consistently augmented their gold reserves. This accumulation has often continued unabated, even during times of relatively high gold prices. Goldman Sachs projects that, on average, central bank purchases will amount to approximately 60 metric tons monthly throughout 2026, predominantly driven by these emerging markets.
This robust demand from official sector actors has been compounded by broadening interest in gold from the private-sector. According to analysts Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas, the competitive acquisition of limited bullion stocks between central banks and private investors has accelerated since 2025, thereby shifting the foundational level for gold prices higher. This shift is significant enough to imply that a sustained price correction is less probable, even in scenarios where financial conditions might stabilize.
On the performance front, spot gold prices posted a remarkable 65% increase in 2025—the strongest annual rise observed since 1979—and have continued to climb into 2026. Year-to-date figures indicate an appreciation exceeding 11%, with gold reaching unprecedented levels around $4,888 per ounce. This price momentum is supported not only by official central bank buying but also by diverse forms of private investor engagement.
Investors are utilizing a multitude of instruments to access gold markets. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced renewed inflows, signaling growing institutional and retail interest. At the same time, demand for physical gold bars and coins has risen among high-net-worth individuals and family offices. Additionally, sophisticated market participants have turned to derivatives, such as call options, which exert upward price pressure without necessitating immediate physical delivery of the metal.
From a supply perspective, constraints persist. Global gold production expands at a modest pace of roughly 1% per annum, reflecting the reality that the majority of gold ever mined continues circulating above ground. The marginal addition from newly mined gold is limited compared to total existing stockpiles. Even amid record-high prices, scaling up production rapidly proves challenging due to extended project lead times, regulatory complexities, and geological restrictions.
In market trading terms, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) exchange-traded fund has demonstrated notable strength, appreciating by nearly 12% year-to-date according to market data. Likewise, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX) has witnessed price increases, mirroring broader gold market trends.
Considering these factors jointly, Goldman Sachs' revised gold price forecast for 2026 underscores the interplay between resilient central bank demand—particularly from emerging economies—and dynamic private-sector engagement. The competitive environment for limited bullion availability is a pivotal force sustaining elevated gold prices for the foreseeable future.