January 14, 2026
Finance

Market Dips as Investors Await Supreme Court Decision on Tariff Authority and Monitor Key Earnings

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures weaken amid economic data stability and Fed rate pause expectations

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Summary

US stock futures declined early Wednesday, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all experiencing slight drops following a subdued previous session. The Consumer Price Index data released maintained steady inflation figures, while market focus sharpens on an imminent Supreme Court ruling concerning President Trump's tariff powers. Treasury yields held firm as investors priced in high probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates through January.

Key Points

US stock futures declined early Wednesday, reflecting investor caution ahead of a Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariff authority.
December Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year, consistent with previous readings and expectations, while core CPI was slightly below forecast.
Treasury yields remained steady with the 10-year note at 4.17%; markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in January with 97.2% probability.
Several notable stocks, including Wells Fargo, BP, WeRide, TG Therapeutics, and Gelteq, showed divergent price movements based on recent corporate developments and earnings guidance.

U.S. stock futures edged lower on Wednesday morning, continuing the modest retreat observed after Tuesday's trading session ended in negative territory. Benchmark indices including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 futures all reflected fractional declines, signaling cautious investor sentiment amid a blend of economic data and pending judicial decisions.

Official reports showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in December, matching both the previous month’s rate and economists' forecasts. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, nudged up 2.6% year-over-year, slightly under the expected 2.7%, indicating a stable inflation environment that remains close to the Federal Reserve’s targets.

Meanwhile, market participants awaited a critical Supreme Court opinion scheduled for release later Wednesday. The ruling pertains to the constitutionality of President Donald Trump's tariff authority, a decision that could have considerable implications for trade policy and broader market dynamics. After no resolution last week, investor attention is heightened regarding this development.

In fixed income markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note stood at 4.17%, while the two-year Treasury yield was 3.52%, reflecting sustained demand amidst economic uncertainty. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicated a 97.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady during its January meeting, suggesting market consensus around a pause in rate hikes.

Market index futures showed the following performance: Dow Jones down 0.15%, the S&P 500 slipping 0.16%, Nasdaq 100 retreating 0.16%, and the Russell 2000 marginally higher by 0.14%. Correspondingly, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), tracking the S&P 500, declined 0.15% to $692.73 in early trade, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), representing the Nasdaq 100, decreased 0.20% to $625.00.

Stock Highlights

  • Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) shares slipped 0.81% in premarket trading as investors prepared for the bank’s quarterly earnings announcement scheduled prior to market open. Wall Street analysts forecast earnings of $1.67 per share on revenues of approximately $21.65 billion. According to Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings, Wells Fargo demonstrates a solid price trend across short, medium, and long-term periods, with moderate fundamental quality.
  • BP PLC (NYSE: BP) suffered a 1.84% drop following news of a potential writedown of up to $5 billion related to its energy transition ventures. The company maintains relatively strong price trends in the medium and long term but weak near-term momentum, paired with a robust value ranking per Benzinga’s assessments.
  • WeRide Inc. ADR (NASDAQ: WRD) rose 1.59% after introducing its "WeRide Go" Robotaxi Mini Program through Tencent WeChat, facilitating direct ride bookings in operating areas without requiring a separate app download. Despite exhibiting weaker medium to long-term price trends, the stock shows strong upward price momentum in the short term.
  • TG Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TGTX) increased by 6.99% following the release of preliminary fourth-quarter revenue figures alongside a positive outlook for 2026. The company's stock holds weaker price trends across all timespans but retains a moderate value classification.
  • Gelteq Ltd. (NASDAQ: GELS) shares surged over 56% after announcing favorable preclinical results for its cannabinoid oral gel delivery technology platform. The stock features strong short and medium-term price momentum, albeit with weaker long-term trends.

Previous Session Recap

On Tuesday, gains were concentrated in energy and consumer staples sectors, while financials and consumer discretionary stocks bore the brunt of declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.80% at 49,191.99, the S&P 500 declined by 0.19% to 6,963.74, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.10% settling at 23,709.87, and the Russell 2000 was marginally down by 0.098% at 2,633.10.

Analyst Perspective

Professor Jeremy Siegel highlighted expectations for a vigorous 2026 economy propelled by a "powerful productivity surge," suggesting growth without triggering renewed inflation pressures. Siegel pointed to a surprising 5.4% annualized fourth-quarter GDP estimate and reframed the current economic phase not as a late-cycle slowdown but rather a transition toward more efficient growth.

Regarding the equity markets, Siegel expressed a moderately optimistic stance but cautioned selectivity. He predicted a pivot away from mega-cap technology stocks — which may experience restrained gains due to lofty valuations — favoring small-cap stocks and non-technology cyclicals expected to benefit from eventual interest rate reductions. He further advocated portfolio diversification beyond crowded U.S. tech stocks into European and Japanese markets, noting attractive valuation opportunities. His outlook anticipates that earnings growth, rather than multiple expansions, will primarily drive returns in 2026.

Key Economic Releases Scheduled

Investors will monitor several upcoming data points, including delayed November retail sales and producer price index figures due for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. October business inventories and December existing home sales are expected by 10:00 a.m. ET.

Additionally, speeches by Federal Reserve officials are slated throughout the day, including those by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (noon ET), Fed Governor Stephen Miran (12:30 p.m. ET), Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (11:00 a.m. ET), and New York Fed President John Williams (2:10 p.m. ET). The Fed's Beige Book will also be published at 2:00 p.m. ET, providing insights into regional economic conditions.

Commodities and Global Markets Update

Crude oil futures registered a decline of approximately 0.98%, trading near $60.57 per barrel in early New York session activity. Gold spot prices rose 0.93%, reaching around $4,629.12 per ounce, approaching recent record highs near $4,640. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.03% to 99.1010. In cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 3.32% increase, climbing to approximately $94,969 per coin.

Overseas markets presented a mixed picture: India’s Nifty 50 and China’s CSI 300 slipped, whereas Australia's ASX 200, Japan's Nikkei 225, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and South Korea's Kospi indices advanced. European markets opened with a similarly mixed performance.

Risks
  • The Supreme Court ruling on the tariff authority carries potential implications for trade policy and market stability, currently an uncertainty.
  • Potential writedowns in energy transition assets, as seen with BP's disclosed $5 billion impairment risk, could impact sector valuations.
  • Market sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy decisions remains high, with unexpected rate changes likely to affect equity and bond markets.
  • Uncertainty in delayed economic data releases and their implications for growth and inflation forecasts can influence investor sentiment.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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Ticker Sentiment
SPY - negative QQQ - negative WFC - negative BP - negative WRD - positive
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