January 7, 2026
Finance

Materials Sector Momentum Indicators Signal Possible Downturn for Key Stocks in Early 2026

Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan Exhibit Overbought Conditions Amid Recent Price Gains

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Summary

As of early January 2026, momentum metrics suggest potential downside risks for select materials sector stocks, particularly Southern Copper Corp and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Both firms have experienced significant short-term price increases and exhibit technical signals that may indicate overbought conditions. Recent analyst activity and momentum scores reflect divergent outlooks, but the elevated relative strength index (RSI) levels warrant careful observation by investors relying on momentum indicators.

Key Points

Southern Copper Corp and Freeport-McMoRan show RSI values above 70, indicating potential overbought status.
Southern Copper was downgraded by an Itau BBA analyst who set a $126 price target despite recent price appreciation.
Freeport-McMoRan received an Overweight rating and increased price target from Wells Fargo amidst a 25% monthly stock price gain.
Momentum scores for Southern Copper are high relative to its value metric, reflecting a divergence between price momentum and valuation.

Entering 2026, specific stocks within the materials industry are showing technical signals that could raise caution among momentum-driven investors. Two notable companies, Southern Copper Corp (NYSE:SCCO) and Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX), have recently exhibited characteristics indicative of overbought status based on their Relative Strength Index (RSI) values.

The RSI serves as a widely used momentum indicator calculated by comparing the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses over a defined period. Typically, an RSI above 70 suggests that a security might be overbought, potentially foreshadowing a pullback or period of consolidation. By juxtaposing the RSI with stock price movements, traders and investors can better assess the likelihood of short-term trend reversals.

Southern Copper has attracted increased market attention, partly influenced by a recent downgrade issued on December 23, 2025. Analyst Daniel Sasson of Itau BBA adjusted Southern Copper's rating from Market Perform to Underperform, alongside setting a price target of $126. Despite this revision, the stock has surged approximately 14% over the last month, closing at $160.08 on January 6, 2026. It hovers near its 52-week high of $161.59. The RSI value measured 71.4, surpassing the conventional overbought threshold.

From a quantitative perspective, Southern Copper's momentum score stands notably high at 92.69, reflecting strong short-term price strength. Conversely, its value metric is markedly lower at 22.95, indicating less favorable valuation characteristics. This juxtaposition of strong momentum with weaker value scores may influence investor decisions differently depending on their strategy focus.

Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan also presents an intriguing case. As of late December 2025, analyst Timna Tanners from Wells Fargo reiterated an Overweight rating on the company and elevated the price target from $47 to $55. This upgrade corresponds with Freeport-McMoRan’s substantial approximate 25% rise in share price over the previous month. The stock closed at $56.15 on January 6, 2026, approaching a 52-week peak of $57.12. Its RSI registered at an even higher level of 75.3, signaling a stronger overbought condition relative to Southern Copper.

Considering momentum analytics, Freeport-McMoRan carries a momentum-oriented ranking that highlights its recent performance strength. Additionally, typical trading patterns reveal these gains have come amid positive analyst support, potentially corroborating bullish sentiment in the near term despite overbought readings.

The combined information underscores a complex environment for materials sector investors. While both Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan have demonstrated considerable price appreciation backed by favorable analyst commentary and robust momentum measures, their elevated RSI levels may caution against unchecked optimism. Stocks crossing well above traditional overbought markers historically warrant close monitoring for possible corrective price action.

Investors integrating technical momentum tools should therefore maintain vigilance in these cases, balancing quantitative indicators with fundamental analyst insights. The contrasting signals of price momentum and value assessments particularly highlight the nuanced decision-making landscape in materials equities at this time.

Risks
  • Elevated RSI values suggest that both stocks might face short-term price corrections.
  • Southern Copper's downgrade to Underperform and lower price target signal analyst concerns despite recent gains.
  • High momentum scores combined with low value scores could indicate potential overvaluation.
  • Strong recent price increases amid overbought conditions may precede volatility or downside in the materials sector stocks.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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