January 12, 2026
Finance

Moderna Experiences Fluctuating Shares Following 2025-2028 Financial Outlook and Pipeline Updates

Stock initially rises but turns negative amid disclosed revenue forecasts, expense projections, and vaccine development progress

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Summary

Moderna Inc. displayed volatility in stock trading after presenting financial expectations and updates on its late-stage product pipeline at a key healthcare conference. The company anticipates modest revenue growth through 2025 and 2026, alongside strategic plans to reduce operating expenses and achieve cash breakeven by 2028. Despite early gains, shares retreated as the broader market declined, reflecting investor caution amid evolving financial and clinical trial developments.

Key Points

Moderna projects 2025 revenue near $1.9 billion, exceeding prior midpoint guidance by $100 million.
The company improved its 2025 GAAP operating expenses forecast by reducing expected costs by $200 million and raised its year-end cash balance projection to $8.1 billion.
For 2026, Moderna aims for up to 10% revenue growth and anticipates GAAP operating expenses around $4.9 billion, with plans to further reduce expenses in 2027 targeting cash breakeven by 2028.
Pipeline progress includes potential first approvals for seasonal flu and combined flu/COVID vaccines in 2026, and multiple oncology trial data expected the same year.

Shares of Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) showed notable volatility on Monday following a comprehensive business and research pipeline update delivered at the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. The fluctuations in the biotechnology firm’s stock price occurred alongside broader market declines, where major indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 faced downward pressure.

During the conference, Moderna reaffirmed its confidence in achieving approximately $1.9 billion in revenue for 2025. This figure represents an upward revision by $100 million compared to the midpoint of guidance provided in the company’s third-quarter earnings call. Furthermore, Moderna announced an improvement in its projected 2025 GAAP operating expenses, trimming anticipated costs by $200 million. The planned year-end cash balance estimate also increased, now expected to reach about $8.1 billion.

Looking ahead to 2026, the company restated its ambition to deliver revenue growth of up to 10 percent. Moderna’s forecast for GAAP operating expenses in 2026 stands at approximately $4.9 billion. Complementing these financial targets, the company outlined intentions to lower operating expenses further in 2027. This cost containment strategy aligns with its broader objective of attaining cash breakeven by 2028, marking a significant milestone in the company’s financial management plan.

Despite the upbeat revenue and expense forecasts, Moderna's shares initially advanced during Monday’s trading session but subsequently reversed course and declined, turning negative by midday, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

In addition to financial guidance, Moderna highlighted progress in its late-stage clinical pipeline as well as with currently approved products. The company anticipates potential first regulatory approvals in 2026 for two significant vaccine candidates: an updated seasonal influenza vaccine and a combination flu/COVID-19 vaccine. These approvals, if successful, could expand the company’s market presence in respiratory infectious disease prevention.

Moderna also projects multiple pivotal clinical trial data readouts across oncology, rare diseases, and infectious disease areas in 2026. In oncology, the personalized cancer vaccine candidate mRNA-4157, developed in partnership with Merck, is advancing through several Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials targeting various tumor types. The company expects potential Phase 2 data releases for its wholly owned cancer antigen therapy candidate mRNA-4359 during the same year.

Complementing clinical developments, Moderna disclosed corporate financing activities including the closure of a five-year term loan facility valued at up to $1.5 billion. Additionally, it received a funding commitment of up to $54.3 million from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations. This funding aims to support a Phase 3 clinical trial for Moderna’s investigational H5 pandemic influenza vaccine, indicating ongoing endeavors to address potential future pandemic threats.

As of the latest trading session data, Moderna shares traded down 3.59 percent, priced at $33.09. This decline reflects current investor sentiment amid evolving market conditions and the details shared in the company’s conference presentation.


Key Points:
  • Moderna projects 2025 revenue of approximately $1.9 billion, a $100 million increase versus prior midpoint guidance.
  • Forecasted GAAP operating expenses for 2025 were reduced by $200 million, with a higher year-end cash balance targeted at $8.1 billion.
  • For 2026, revenue growth of up to 10 percent is expected alongside GAAP operating expenses of about $4.9 billion.
  • Plans to further decrease operating expenses in 2027 aim to achieve cash breakeven by 2028.
  • Potential inaugural approvals in 2026 include a seasonal flu vaccine and a combined flu/COVID-19 vaccine.
  • Several oncology-related clinical trial data readouts are anticipated in 2026, including progress on mRNA-4157 and mRNA-4359 candidates.
  • Corporate updates include securing a $1.5 billion term loan and $54.3 million in funding for H5 influenza vaccine trials.
Risks and Uncertainties:
  • Stock performance volatility reflects potential investor concerns responding to mixed signals of initial gains followed by declines post-announcement.
  • Achievement of revenue, operating expense, and cash targets depends on successful execution of financial strategies and market conditions.
  • Regulatory approval timelines for vaccine candidates carry inherent uncertainty and may impact projected revenue.
  • Clinical trial outcomes for oncology and infectious disease programs remain subject to variability and could influence future product viability.
Risks
  • Market volatility is evident as Moderna’s stock initially rose but then declined, illustrating investor uncertainty.
  • The company’s financial forecasts rely on successful execution amid fluctuating market conditions and operating cost management.
  • The timing and success of regulatory approvals for new vaccine candidates are uncertain and may impact revenue expectations.
  • Clinical trial outcomes for oncology and infectious disease programs could vary, influencing future growth prospects.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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