Shares of Moderna Inc. have surged to new heights this week, propelled by the release of compelling long-term clinical results from a cancer immunotherapy study. The biotechnology company, known primarily for its mRNA vaccine technology, revealed findings from a collaborative trial with Merck & Co. to evaluate the efficacy of a novel individualized cancer treatment.
The Phase 2b KEYNOTE-942/mRNA-4157-P201 trial focused on an individualized mRNA-based neoantigen therapy, intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157), in conjunction with Merck's immunotherapy drug KEYTRUDA. This combination was tested in patients diagnosed with high-risk melanoma who had already undergone complete surgical tumor removal, aiming to prevent cancer recurrence.
After a median follow-up period of five years, the study demonstrated that adding intismeran autogene to KEYTRUDA produced a substantial 49% reduction in the risk of melanoma recurrence or death compared to treatment with KEYTRUDA alone. The combination therapy sustained durable improvements in recurrence-free survival, aligning with the trial's primary objective.
Importantly, the therapy's safety profile remained consistent with earlier assessments, with no new adverse events emerging. Moderna and Merck indicated plans to disseminate further follow-up data at forthcoming medical conferences, signaling ongoing interest in the clinical progression of this treatment approach.
Beyond melanoma, the biopharmaceutical collaborators have initiated eight Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical trials exploring the application of this mRNA-based cancer therapy across various cancer types including non-small cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, and renal cell carcinoma. Enrollment for the Phase 3 adjuvant melanoma study is reportedly complete, marking a significant milestone in clinical development.
In the market, Moderna's shares are exhibiting strong bullish momentum, reflected in their current positioning approximately 37.5% above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 72.5% above the 100-day SMA. These indicators highlight a significant upward trend in the stock's price movement. Over the past twelve months, the stock has appreciated by roughly 33.45%, trading near its 52-week high rather than closer to lows seen in the period.
Technical analysis reveals the relative strength index (RSI) currently stands at 74.26, suggesting the stock has entered overbought territory. While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains above its signal line, reinforcing the ongoing bullish trend, the elevated RSI may signal potential price corrections in the near term.
Key levels of technical support and resistance have been identified, with $50.00 representing a notable resistance point where the stock may face selling pressure. On the downside, $45.00 acts as a support level, providing a potential floor for price declines.
Analysts have maintained a cautious stance on Moderna's stock amid this price surge. The consensus rating is "Hold," supported by an average price target of $36.59, which sits below the current trading level. Recent analyst activity includes UBS upgrading the stock to Neutral while lowering its target to $34.00 on January 7. Morgan Stanley assigned an Equal-Weight rating, adjusting its target to $28.00 as of December 12, 2025. Jefferies initiated coverage with a Hold rating and a target price of $30.00 on the same date.
Further market insight comes from Benzinga's Edge scorecard, which rates Moderna highly for momentum with a score of 81.46 out of 100, indicating strong performance relative to the broader market. Despite this positive momentum signal, the elevated RSI suggests investors should remain watchful for possible pullbacks.
During the reporting period, Moderna's share price increased 11.67% to $48.02, marking a significant move to a 52-week high. This jump underscores how positive clinical developments and technical momentum can combine to drive investor enthusiasm, even in the face of tempered analyst price targets.
In summary, Moderna's recent clinical trial update provides compelling evidence supporting the long-term efficacy of its mRNA-based cancer therapy in partnership with Merck. While the stock demonstrates strong upward momentum, technical indicators and analyst caution underscore the importance of balanced investor sentiment in evaluating future price trajectories.