In recent commentary, economist Mohamed A. El-Erian underscored an important comparative observation between two widely followed investment assets: gold and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). He noted that over the previous five-year period, gold has delivered superior returns relative to Bitcoin, challenging popular perspectives that often prioritize the cryptocurrency’s dynamic growth.
El-Erian, who serves as the Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, shared his insights via social media platform X. He pointed out that gold's recent performance is embodying this comparative advantage once again in 2026. As he stated, "This outperformance is playing out this year... and also today, as gold bounces while Bitcoin continues to languish." This comment highlights a divergence witnessed recently in the market where gold prices have rebounded, whereas Bitcoin's valuation remains subdued.
Examining concrete metrics, spot gold has experienced notable gains over the last year and also dominates when measured on a five-year return basis. Contrastingly, Bitcoin has trended downward recently, falling below $73,000 — levels that were last recorded in November 2024. In stark contrast, gold has surged to unprecedented heights, with prices exceeding $5,600 per ounce in early February, marking record-setting performance milestones.
Yet, El-Erian also emphasized the differing narratives over longer time horizons. When assessing a decade-long frame, Bitcoin's appreciation dramatically outpaces gold’s returns. Specifically, Bitcoin has yielded remarkable cumulative growth of over 20,366%, while gold's gain over the same period stands at a more modest 326%. This differential underscores the complexity of comparing these assets, dependent on the investment term considered.
| Asset | Year-to-Date Gains | 5-Year Gains | 10-Year Gains | Price (as of 2:20 a.m. ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spot Gold | +17.44% | +179% | +326% | $76,454 |
| Bitcoin | -14.45% | +103% | +20,366% | $5,068 |
The discussion about gold and Bitcoin is especially pertinent amid ongoing debates about their respective roles in investment portfolios and as stores of value. Notable investor Cathie Wood contributed to this discourse earlier in the week, suggesting that gold’s recent rally might serve as a predictive indicator for Bitcoin’s potential performance. She cited historical data highlighting patterns where gold’s bull runs preceded Bitcoin’s growth phases.
Supporting the cautious outlook among some traders, data from Polymarket shows skepticism regarding Bitcoin’s ability to outperform gold in 2026. The probability assigned to Bitcoin exceeding gold’s returns stands at 36%, with a majority of traders betting on Bitcoin underperforming.
These data points and expert insights signal a nuanced investment landscape where gold, long regarded as a traditional safe haven and store of value, is asserting its relevance against the backdrop of cryptocurrency volatility. Investors and analysts alike are closely monitoring these trajectories as markets approach 2026.