January 15, 2026
Finance

Morgan Stanley Projects Strong 2026 IPO Activity and Expanding Deal Flow

Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings surpass expectations amid growth in advisory and wealth segments

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Summary

Morgan Stanley reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 results including earnings per share of $2.68, surpassing analyst forecasts and demonstrating 18% year-over-year net income growth. The financial services firm achieved substantial revenue increases in investment banking and wealth management, highlighted by a higher return on tangible common equity and improved expense efficiency ratio. Looking ahead, CFO Sharon Yeshaya anticipates further expansion in the pipeline of initial public offerings and merger-and-acquisition deals across diverse industries in 2026, supported by ongoing investments and favorable regulatory conditions.

Key Points

Morgan Stanley reported Q4 2025 earnings per share of $2.68, beating analyst consensus and marking an 18% year-over-year rise in net income to $4.397 billion.
The firm’s revenue increased by 10% year-over-year to $17.89 billion, supported by strong investment banking and wealth management performance.
Expense efficiency improved with a cost-to-income ratio of 68%, down from 71% the previous year, alongside a higher ROTCE of 21.6%, highlighting enhanced profitability and operational leverage.
CFO Sharon Yeshaya anticipates increased IPO activity in 2026, along with ongoing merger-and-acquisition transactions, especially in healthcare, industrials, and sponsor-backed sectors.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) announced its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on Thursday, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.68, representing a notable improvement from $2.22 reported during the same period a year prior. This quarterly EPS figure outperformed the consensus expectations, which had been set at $2.41. The firm also posted a net earnings increase of 18%, reaching $4.397 billion compared to the previous fiscal year.

During the past twelve months, Morgan Stanley's stock price has risen approximately 38%, a reflection of the company's solid operational performance and market confidence. Investors and market participants have shown particular interest in the company’s fundamental strengths.

Ted Pick, Morgan Stanley’s Chairman and CEO, expressed satisfaction with the firm’s 2025 performance, stating that the results showcase the success of multi-year investments that have driven both growth and sustained momentum across what he terms the "Integrated Firm." This holistic approach appears to be producing measurable results in both revenue and efficiency metrics.

The company reported consolidated revenue for 2025 of $17.89 billion, marking a 10% increase compared to the prior year and surpassing the analysts’ forecast of $17.77 billion. This top-line growth was achieved alongside improved cost management, with the firm's expense efficiency ratio improving to 68% from 71% a year earlier. The improvement indicates enhanced operating leverage while the firm continues to allocate resources toward business investments.

Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) for 2025 rose significantly to 21.6%, up from 18.8%, reflecting stronger profitability relative to tangible equity capital. Complementarily, Morgan Stanley maintained a solid capital position, ending the year with a Standardized Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of 15.0%, demonstrating regulatory capital adequacy.

Breaking down revenue by segment, Institutional Securities posted robust fourth-quarter revenue of $7.9 billion, an improvement from $7.3 billion in the same quarter the previous year. Investment banking revenues experienced a 47% surge to $2.4 billion, propelled by increased deal activity in mergers and acquisitions as well as initial public offerings (IPOs).

Equity net revenues also grew by 10% to $3.7 billion, driven by heightened client engagement across different business lines and geographic regions, alongside higher financing revenues stemming from expanded client balances within prime brokerage services. Conversely, Fixed Income net revenues declined by 9% year over year to $1.76 billion. This reduction was mainly attributed to decreased activity in commodities—on account of fewer structured transactions—and weaker foreign exchange revenues stemming from lower market volatility.

Within Wealth Management, the company reported revenues totaling $8.4 billion, which reflect a combination of asset management fees, steady client activity, and increased net interest income. The division showed continued momentum, evidenced by net new asset inflows of $122.3 billion during the quarter and fee-based asset flows amounting to $45.6 billion. These figures notably outstripped market expectations, highlighting strong client trust and effective asset gathering.

The Investment Management segment recorded net revenues of $1.72 billion, primarily attributable to asset management fees generated from a higher average level of assets under management (AUM). Collectively, total client assets across Wealth and Investment Management grew to $9.3 trillion, supported by net new assets exceeding $350 billion.

Turning to capital returns, Morgan Stanley continued to deploy shareholder capital through buybacks and dividends. The firm repurchased $1.5 billion of its common stock in the fourth quarter and totaled $4.6 billion for the full year under its share repurchase authorization. Additionally, the Board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share, scheduled for payment on February 13, 2026, to shareholders as of the January 30, 2026 record date.

Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya, in an interview with Bloomberg, underscored that ongoing investments are delivering positive results across advisory services and debt capital markets. Highlighting the firm’s role in providing structured capital market solutions to data center operators and hyperscale technology companies, Yeshaya emphasized Morgan Stanley’s readiness to meet specialized client financing needs.

Further insights from a Reuters interview with Yeshaya revealed that dealmaking activities at Morgan Stanley are broadening, supported by a strong pipeline that fuels commercial momentum. The CFO expressed expectations for an uptick in IPO volumes for 2026 coupled with sustained merger and acquisition activity. Particular acceleration is anticipated in sectors such as healthcare, industrials, and sponsor-led transactions.

Yeshaya also noted that investment banking introductions are positively impacting wealth management business growth by attracting net new assets. Regarding regulatory matters, the CFO affirmed that the current favorable environment remains stable, with no anticipated changes that could disrupt operations.

Regarding market response, Morgan Stanley shares declined modestly by 2.23% in premarket trading on Thursday, closing at $178.68, as reported by market data provider Benzinga Pro.

Risks
  • Fixed Income revenues declined by 9% due to reduced commodities-related structured transactions and lower foreign exchange volatility, possibly indicating sensitivity to market fluctuations.
  • Stock price showed a decline of 2.23% in premarket trading despite strong quarterly results, reflecting potential market volatility or investor caution.
  • The projection of increased IPO and dealmaking activity in 2026 is subject to prevailing macroeconomic and regulatory conditions remaining favorable.
  • While expense efficiency improved, ongoing investments imply continued balance between cost control and growth funding, which could affect future profitability if market conditions shift.
Disclosure
Education only / not financial advice
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