The acquisition fight for Warner Bros Discovery (NASDAQ: WBD) is entering a crucial phase, marked by Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) increasing its bid to a fully cash-based offer. This strategic adjustment comes as Paramount Skydance Corp. (NYSE: PSKY) has escalated the competitive dynamics by initiating legal action against Warner Bros Discovery, heightening tensions in what has become an intense contest for control over the studio.
Data from Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market platform, reveals that wagers totaling nearly $790,000 have been placed on the question of who will ultimately take over Warner Bros Discovery. The probability assigned to Netflix closing the acquisition currently stands at 70 percent, a rise of 5 percent from previous assessments. Meanwhile, speculation that no entity will finalize a purchase of Warner Bros Discovery prior to 2027 holds odds of approximately 16 percent, indicating market expectations of a drawn-out process.
Netflix Presents Revised Acquisition Proposal
Netflix has shifted from its earlier offer framework, now proposing to purchase Warner Bros Discovery's film and television studios, expansive content library, and the HBO Max streaming platform exclusively in cash. The revised offer sets the purchase price at $27.75 per share in cash, superseding the prior deal which combined $23.25 per share in cash with $4.50 in Netflix equity. This move underscores Netflix’s commitment to securing the assets without diluting its own stock or complicating the terms with share exchange components.
Both Netflix and Paramount continue to eye Warner Bros Discovery due to the studio’s valuable intellectual property portfolio, including flagship franchises such as “Game of Thrones,” “Harry Potter,” and the DC Comics superhero universe. The broad content holdings and established production capabilities remain highly attractive amid the competitive streaming and media landscape.
The Paramount Legal Challenge and Corporate Maneuvering
Paramount’s involvement has intensified beyond bidding, as evidenced by its recent lawsuit against Warner Bros Discovery. The suit alleges nondisclosure of pertinent financial information related to Warner Bros' negotiations with Netflix. This development follows Paramount’s failed hostile takeover attempt of Warner Bros Discovery earlier this month.
In a show of assertive corporate strategy, Paramount CEO David Ellison has indicated the possibility of initiating a proxy fight aimed at replacing Warner Bros Discovery’s board members. His intent is to install directors more amenable to negotiating terms with Paramount, highlighting the friction between Paramount and Warner Bros Discovery’s management, which has so far declined to entertain direct discussions with the challenger.
Origins and Overview of the Acquisition Battle
The current acquisition dispute traces back to December 2025, when Netflix publicly announced its intention to acquire Warner Bros Discovery. This announcement triggered an intense contest between Netflix and Paramount Skydance, escalating into what media observers describe as a $108 billion competitive battle for control over the company. Paramount's management responded with a hostile bid, signaling the rarity and intensity of this corporate fight in the media industry.
The volatility surrounding Warner Bros Discovery’s future ownership underscores the broader challenges and competition among streaming services and content producers seeking to consolidate content ownership and distribution channels in a rapidly evolving market.
Key Points
- Netflix has upgraded its bid for Warner Bros Discovery to an all-cash offer of $27.75 per share, abandoning the previous stock-included proposal.
- Paramount Skydance escalated its efforts by filing litigation against Warner Bros Discovery, accusing it of failing to disclose financial details. Paramount also considers a proxy fight to reshape Warner Bros’ board.
- Prediction market data currently favors Netflix with a 70% probability of completing the acquisition, reflecting market confidence despite ongoing contest and legal challenges.
- Warner Bros Discovery’s valuable content and franchises, including HBO Max, remain the key assets driving interest from both Netflix and Paramount.
Risks and Uncertainties
- The legal dispute initiated by Paramount introduces uncertainty around the timeline and smoothness of any acquisition deal.
- Paramount’s threat of a proxy fight against Warner Bros Discovery’s board adds complexity to corporate governance and could delay or alter acquisition outcomes.
- The possibility that no acquisition occurs before 2027, as indicated by prediction market odds, suggests potential prolonged negotiations or regulatory hurdles.
- Competition between two major streaming companies may result in escalated bids or strategic maneuvers further complicating acquisition prospects.