Northrop Grumman Corporation, a major defense contractor headquartered in Falls Church, Virginia, is approaching the release of its fourth quarter earnings report, which is scheduled for publication prior to market open on Tuesday, January 27. Investors and analysts alike are carefully observing consensus forecasts and recent analyst opinions as the company prepares to reveal its financial performance for the period.
Analyst estimates compiled by Benzinga Pro show that Northrop Grumman is expected to report an earnings per share (EPS) figure of $6.96 for the fourth quarter. This anticipated earnings mark represents a notable increase from the $6.39 EPS recorded in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year. Similarly, revenue projections are bullish, with a consensus targeting $11.62 billion. This revenue forecast reflects growth compared to the $10.69 billion reported in the same quarter last year.
In recent corporate developments, Northrop Grumman announced a significant executive change on November 6, naming John Greene as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This management update could influence the company’s strategic and financial direction moving forward.
On the stock market, Northrop Grumman’s shares saw a decline of 1.8%, closing at $660.97 on the Monday before earnings are to be reported. This price movement adds to the anticipation and uncertainty ahead of the financial disclosure.
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Changes
In the lead-up to the earnings release, several Wall Street analysts with strong track records of accuracy have issued updates to their ratings and price targets for Northrop Grumman stock. These revisions provide insight into current market sentiment and expectations for the company’s near-term prospects.
- UBS: Analyst Gavin Parsons, recognized for a 74% accuracy rate, maintained a Buy rating on January 15, 2026, while raising the price target from $770 to $777. This adjustment signals confidence in the company’s continued growth potential.
- Citigroup: On January 13, 2026, John Godyn, with a 64% accuracy rate, reaffirmed his Buy rating and increased the price target from $654 to $715, reflecting optimism on valuation upside.
- Truist Securities: Contrasting with some peers, Michael Ciarmoli downgraded Northrop Grumman from Buy to Hold on January 9, 2026, and lowered the price target from $688 to $623. Notably, Ciarmoli presides over a high accuracy rate of 89%, indicating a cautious stance on momentum.
- Morgan Stanley: Analyst Kristine Liwag maintained an Overweight rating on December 16, 2025, but trimmed the price target slightly from $720 to $714. With a 77% rating accuracy, this suggests a tempered optimism amid shifting market conditions.
- Alembic Global: Peter Skibitski upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight on December 15, 2025, assigning a price target of $662. This analyst has a 78% accuracy rate, proposing a more favorable view relative to prior evaluations.
Market Context and Investment Perspectives
These contrasting analyst opinions indicate a complex investor environment where optimism about growth and valuation is balanced against cautious evaluations of risks and market dynamics. As investors watch for the actual earnings results, the range of updated price targets between $623 and $777 reveals varied expectations about Northrop Grumman's ability to capitalize on its business and financial strategies.
Meanwhile, Benzinga provides a stock score for Northrop Grumman, displaying strong momentum and quality metrics but a more moderate value rating. This nuanced breakdown of performance signals the company's solid fundamentals blended with concerns about stock valuation from a market perspective.
Summary of Financial Expectations and Stock Performance
| Financial Metric | Consensus Estimate | Prior Year Figure |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings Per Share (EPS) | $6.96 | $6.39 |
| Revenue | $11.62 billion | $10.69 billion |
| Share Price (close prior to earnings) | $660.97 | - |
Risks and Uncertainties Ahead
- Revenue Execution Risk: While analysts forecast revenue growth, any shortfall in actual revenue relative to the $11.62 billion consensus could impact valuation and confidence.
- Earnings Volatility: The anticipated rise in earnings per share to $6.96 sets a higher bar; failure to meet or exceed this number could weigh heavily on the stock price.
- Market Reaction to CFO Change: The appointment of John Greene as EVP and CFO introduces an element of transition risk, depending on market perceptions of leadership impact.
- Divergent Analyst Views: Disparities among analyst ratings and price targets ahead of earnings reflect underlying uncertainty in Northrop Grumman’s near-term outlook.
Key Takeaways
- Northrop Grumman is expected to report improved earnings and revenue for Q4, with EPS projected to rise from $6.39 to $6.96 and revenues estimated at $11.62 billion versus $10.69 billion last year.
- A recent CFO appointment may bear on future financial management and investor sentiment.
- Analyst opinions vary, with some upgrading price targets and maintaining Buy ratings, while others have reduced targets or downgraded to Hold.
- Stock price movements ahead of earnings reflect market anticipation and the underlying uncertainty surrounding the quarter's results and strategic direction.