Market speculation regarding asset performance in 2026 places gold ahead of both Bitcoin and the S&P 500, according to data from Polymarket traders. The latest market probabilities indicate that gold holds a 47% chance of being the best performing asset next year, edging out Bitcoin, which stands at 39%, while the S&P 500 trails with 14%.
Gold, represented by the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD), has experienced a notable increase of 12.6% year-to-date. Its price per ounce rose from $4,321 at the start of the year to $4,840 on Wednesday, with an intraday high reaching $4,887. This upward trend has been spurred by heightened geopolitical tensions and tariff threats, factors that have contributed to a weakening U.S. dollar and redirected investor funds into traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has demonstrated minimal gains in the same period, registering an increase of only 0.3%. The digital currency's performance has been volatile, affected by broader risk factors and news events. Notably, Bitcoin's correlation with risk-sensitive technology stocks has led to price falls in response to political developments.
President Trump's public demands concerning Greenland and tariff escalations have intensified a "Sell America" trend impacting U.S. equities and bond markets. Such pressures have indirectly benefited gold, given investors’ flight to safety. Conversely, Bitcoin has seen downward pressure, falling approximately 3% following President Trump's remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, and declining over 10% during the last seven days. These movements suggest Bitcoin is currently trading more like a risky asset than a refuge.
Focus on Bitcoin’s technical positioning shows that its price has declined by about 6% over the past week, struggling to surpass the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) set at $97,121. Additional moving averages — the 20-day at $96,957, the 100-day at $86,222, and the 200-day at $68,219 — frame the current trading range.
The cryptocurrency's price remains constrained between support observed at the 100-day EMA and resistance found around the 20 and 50-day EMAs. According to the Parabolic SAR indicator placed at $80,873, Bitcoin retains a bullish underlying structure, though momentum has noticeably diminished. Regaining the $97,000 level is critical to shifting market sentiment positively; failure to do so may push the price toward lower support levels between $86,000 and $80,000.
Should Bitcoin breach the $80,000 support level, traders anticipate a potential drop to approximately $75,000, which is perceived as a worst-case support zone in current market analysis. Resistance remains notably strong in the $97,000 to $100,000 range.
| Ticker | Asset | Price | Change (YTD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | $438.97 | +12.6% |
| BTC | Bitcoin | $90,187.00 | +0.3% |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 | $686.47 | +1.31% |
Market indicators such as momentum and price trend metrics further illustrate the strengths and challenges confronting these assets. Gold's performance aligns with its role as a hedge amid uncertainty, while Bitcoin's behavior reflects an ongoing struggle to establish stability. The S&P 500, meanwhile, is contending with pressures stemming from geopolitical and economic disruptions that are eroding investor confidence.
In summary, Polymarket's probabilities and current price dynamics suggest that gold is the favored asset for outperformance in 2026. Bitcoin's path remains uncertain as it navigates key technical barriers, and the S&P 500 faces considerable headwinds from elevated geopolitical risk and tariff-related market reactions.