In recent days, the volume of wagers placed on the future of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has surged dramatically on Polymarket, an online prediction platform utilizing blockchain technology. This spike in trading activity coincides with the twelfth consecutive day of widespread anti-government demonstrations in Iran.
The specific market question, “Will Khamenei no longer be Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?”, has attracted approximately $4.7 million in betting turnover since its inception just four days ago. This rapid rise in interest has positioned the outcome as one of the most actively traded contracts on Polymarket, even surpassing other bets involving diverse topics such as Greenland affairs, international tariffs, professional basketball matchups, and central bank interest rate decisions.
Despite the heavy trading volume, the aggregated odds reflect a prevailing expectation that Khamenei will remain in his position through the end of January, with current market estimates assigning roughly an 82% likelihood to his continuance as Supreme Leader. Conversely, the probability of his removal by that deadline stands near 17%, indicating skepticism about imminent regime change but acknowledging the significant uncertainty amid Iran’s internal crisis.
Individual traders are actively engaging in this market, with notable cases highlighting both potential gains and strategic positioning. One participant, identified as TheBigBlind, initially entered the market when the probability of Khamenei's ouster was about 11%, and through market movements has accrued over $13,000 in profits. Another trader named Chungguskhan executed rapid transactions on the same day and currently holds 249,539.5 shares betting against Khamenei's removal.
Polymarket facilitates betting using USDC, a cryptocurrency pegged to the U.S. dollar, enabling seamless digital transactions on its Polygon blockchain-based platform. The developers of this market noted that, after consulting those directly impacted by recent attacks in Iran, they realized that prediction markets could provide insights and information in ways traditional media outlets could not. Consequently, they issued a disclaimer clarifying the purpose and context of this contract, reflecting sensitivity to the situation's complexity.
Meanwhile, the Iranian government has confronted mounting domestic unrest by imposing a nationwide internet shutdown, attempting to curb the flow of information and communication among protesters and the broader population. This response is part of ongoing efforts to suppress escalating dissent, which has persisted for nearly two weeks.
Human rights organizations report at least 42 fatalities linked to the protests, including five minors under the age of 18 and eight members of Iran's security forces, underscoring the severity of the conflict. These figures come from the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a nonprofit based in the United States focused on documenting such incidents.
Despite these developments, Iranian state media have minimized the scale and impact of the demonstrations, which initially arose amid frustrations over economic hardships such as the rapid devaluation of the Iranian Rial and soaring inflation. These economic factors have contributed significantly to public dissatisfaction and the impetus for ongoing protests.
Adding to the international dimension of the crisis, former U.S. President Donald Trump declared last week that the United States would intervene in support of Iranian demonstrators should the regime resort to violent repression, further intensifying geopolitical tensions surrounding the internal unrest.