As Winter Storm Fern imposes severe disruptions across the eastern United States, prediction markets are experiencing heightened engagement. Participants are actively betting on the amount of snowfall that will accumulate in key metropolitan areas such as New York City and Washington, D.C., amid conditions that have led to major power outages and travel upheavals.
On Polymarket, a decentralized platform operating on the Polygon blockchain, more than $700,000 has been wagered regarding the precise snowfall totals expected in New York City over the critical weekend period. Current data indicates that bettors assign approximately a 47% probability to snowfall accumulating between 10 and 12 inches. Polymarket relies on data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to resolve these contracts, ensuring their outcome reflects official measurements.
Similarly, the capital city has attracted focused betting activity. Washington, D.C., hosts a comparable prediction market, where the highest likelihood—around 56%—is attributed to a snowfall total ranging from 5 to 7 inches. This indicates a consensus among participants about moderate but impactful snow accumulation in the area.
The Polymarket platform enables users to engage by purchasing "Yes" or "No" shares denominated in USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar. Each correct outcome share ultimately pays out $1 USDC upon market resolution, providing a clear binary outcome for participants.
Alongside Polymarket, Kalshi, another market allowing weather-related contracts, reflects even stronger confidence regarding snowfall amounts. Market participants on Kalshi present a 98% chance that New York City will see more than 10 inches of snow, with nearly $3.7 million wagered overall on this potential result, marking significant financial commitments amid the storm.
Despite this financial engagement, the concept of profiting from natural disasters has drawn criticism. Polymarket's CEO, Shayne Coplan, has acknowledged the sensitivity of enabling bets linked to adverse weather events, recognizing the ethical questions these markets raise.
The storm’s impact is evident beyond the markets. It has severely disrupted daily routines and critical services, including widespread power outages affecting tens of thousands of residents. Additionally, travel has been heavily affected, with roughly 12,000 flight cancellations and more than 20,000 delays across the United States on Sunday alone, according to FlightAware data.
Moreover, President Donald Trump has issued federal emergency declarations in multiple states affected by the storm, such as South Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee, facilitating federal aid to manage storm-related challenges.
Forecast models indicate that snow, sleet, and freezing rain conditions will extend across the eastern two-thirds of the nation from Sunday into the upcoming week, suggesting a prolonged period of hazardous weather.
Investors tracking cryptocurrency markets have also noted modest movements in leading assets during this period, though these are unrelated to the storm's direct impact.