In recent days, Ripple's (CRYPTO: XRP) Chief Technology Officer, David Schwartz, publicly questioned the feasibility of XRP reaching lofty price targets ranging between $50 and $100. His views emerge against the backdrop of a notable 12% price fall, with the digital asset descending to roughly $1.75.
Schwartz addressed the growing speculation regarding XRP’s future price on X, where discussions about the token's potential rise to several tens of dollars have gained traction. He acknowledged his own history of misjudging price movements but maintained a cautious stance about predicting substantial increases. Reflecting on his personal investment decisions, Schwartz recounted divesting XRP when it traded as low as $0.10, deeming it overvalued at that early stage. He drew parallels to the early days of Bitcoin, when the idea of it reaching $100 per coin was widely dismissed as improbable.
“I didn’t think it was likely that XRP would ever hit $0.25,” he wrote, highlighting how his experience has frequently involved underestimating cryptocurrency price action.
The CTO’s statements rapidly sparked responses from the XRP community, many of whom perceived his remarks as undermining confidence in the token’s future. Some holders questioned whether the original mission of Ripple regarding XRP had shifted, referencing prior aspirations that envisioned the token achieving valuations close to $10,000. One notable investor with a substantial stake conveyed their disappointment, stating that they might liquidate their position should XRP only reach $2 again, signaling the emotional and financial impact of Schwartz's commentary for holders banking on XRP for significant wealth creation.
Conversely, certain observers defended Schwartz’s prudence, emphasizing the challenges associated with sharing forward-looking price guidance, particularly given ongoing developments. Ripple continues to expand quietly across multiple sectors, working towards enhanced adoption that may influence the token’s prospects over time.
In a subsequent elaboration, Schwartz doubled down on his rationale surrounding XRP’s valuation levels. He argued that present prices appropriately reflect the aggregate beliefs of investors about the token’s outlook. His reasoning underscores fundamental market logic: if a large number of rational investors seriously entertained a 10% probability of XRP reaching $100 within a few years, such conviction would manifest through significant buying activity at current prices, driving the token well beyond $10 immediately.
The absence of such market behavior indicates limited confidence among investors in achieving triple-digit valuations for XRP with a degree of certainty sufficient to underpin aggressive capital allocation.
Schwartz further contended that cryptocurrency pricing is generally rational, contending that major rallies tend to stem from unforeseen external factors rather than from built-in expectations about fundamental value changes.
From a technical perspective, XRP recently witnessed a downturn of around 3% intraday, breaking sharply below a prior consolidation zone between $1.85 and $2.00. This breakdown resulted in a swift descent toward the $1.70 level.
The decisive breach of this support range, accompanied by increased selling pressure, often signals the potential for continued downward movement. Presently, XRP’s four exponential moving averages (EMAs) stand in bearish alignment well above the current trading price: the 20 EMA at $1.79, the 50 EMA at $1.84, the 100 EMA at $1.88, and the 200 EMA at $1.93.
Key support to watch lies at the $1.70 mark, corresponding to the recent spike low. Should XRP fail to maintain this threshold, cascading stop-loss orders could be triggered, pushing the price further toward a range between approximately $1.60 and $1.65.
For any substantial recovery to take hold, XRP must reclaim the breakdown level near $1.85 and re-enter the prior consolidation zone. Only such a reversal could build confidence in a more positive trajectory following the recent selloff.